| yo33331 said: I am predicting a little over 4M, since I think the holiday will be weaker than 2022 and 2019. However this year results till now were unexpected for pretty much everyone, including the biggest fans of the system, so everything is possible. |
At this point absolute worst case scenario is probably 4.3m. That's with a solidly weaker holiday than last year and barely any boost for Mario OLED and Mario Wonder.
To end up only a little over 4m they'd have to have no holiday boost at all. Averaging 80k rest of the year gets to a little over 4m (4.044m). Basically if 6 weeks of holiday sales plus Mario OLED launch and Mario Wonder launch only did 90k each week, and the rest of the weeks only did 70k, you'd get a little over 4m.
The non-Holiday non-Mario weeks I'd guess will probably average more like 80k I think, while the two OLED and Wonder weeks let's say are probably like 100k, and the holiday weeks 140k gets all the way to 4.444m.
So 4.30m at this point would be getting abnormally weak sales all of a sudden for the rest of the year, a little over 4m isn't a possibility. 4.4 million is probably the most likely range, but if Mario weeks provide a bigger boost or if holiday is a bit stronger and nearly as strong as last year which is definitely a possibility since Switch has been outselling last year ever since Zelda OLED at end of April then even hitting 4.5m is in the cards. 4.6m is unlikely.
