By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Slownenberg on 05 September 2023
Edit Thread
yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

For a realist, you have a consistent pattern of lowballing the Switch. You underestimated it's Japanese sales for 2022, (by more than 300k actually by ShadowLink93's numbers) then early this year you underestimated it again by predicting that the baseline would fall to 30-40k during the middle of the year and end with 3-3.5m total, and now you're making another unrealistically low forecast of just 4m at its current pace and with a 2D Mario coming soon.

It seems as though you want the Switch to sell worse and base your predictions on what you want to happen.

But I personally think that the bigger percentage of the thing happening will be that they system will finish a little less than it's 2022 sales, at a little over 4M.

I'm confused here though. "A little over 4 million" would mean 4.0X or 4.1. Which is not at all the same as "a little less than 2022 sales" which were 4.8 million. Little less than last year would be like ~4.65 to 4.7-high. You can't be both a little over 4 and a little less than 4.8 million, that's an enormous range. Saying "a little" does not mean a 400k range and you are using it twice to mean an 800k range. That's a non-prediction.

Anyway, I think most of us can see at this point that Switch is most likely gonna be at 4.4 or 4.5 million this year. 4.3 million is worst case scenario and fairly unlikely - would require a weaker rest of the year compared to the popularity we've seen since Zelda came out, with Mario Wonder coming that doesn't seem likely though something like 4.39 could happen. 4.6 million is best case scenario and also fairly unlikely - would require an fairly big boost from Mario OLED and Wonder and require the holidays to be as big as last year.