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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

For a realist, you have a consistent pattern of lowballing the Switch. You underestimated it's Japanese sales for 2022, (by more than 300k actually by ShadowLink93's numbers) then early this year you underestimated it again by predicting that the baseline would fall to 30-40k during the middle of the year and end with 3-3.5m total, and now you're making another unrealistically low forecast of just 4m at its current pace and with a 2D Mario coming soon.

It seems as though you want the Switch to sell worse and base your predictions on what you want to happen.

You are overexaggerating. Why I was not lowballing (your words, not mine) the switch sales for 2021 for example ? When I said 25M and it finished 24M ? So I have highball it. Japanese sales according to this site are a little less than 4.7M. I said aroudn 4.5M so guess what ? I was off only by about less than 200k. So such a small difference can't be called lowballing. It's normal for someone to not be able to predict a number with exact hundreds of units to the point. That's why most of the time I give ranges.

I haven't said 30k, more likely 50k. Which it happened in the first part of the year. After that switch boosted out of nowhere. And yes, I know about the zelda, however it was not only because of it. Many people here wondered on the threads from what the continued boost in switch sales is coming. So congrats to switch but no one expected to maintain at some times even higher level of sales than last year. So you can't blame me here.

Now I am not making unrealistically low forecast, and it's not just 4M. Stop putting only the low possible numbers I have written every time. I said little over 4M which including numbers like 4.2M and even 4.3M. Also I am not saying it is impossible to do unexpectedly good sales and reach even 5M cuz as we all saw everything is possible, doesn't matter which year you are in system's life. But I personally think that the bigger percentage of the thing happening will be that they system will finish a little less than it's 2022 sales, at a little over 4M.

My prediction from earlier in the year also wasn't 3M but 3.5M. And you can't blame me here too, cuz most of the people here predicted the same (decline from it's 2022 of at least 1M or more) and with the first months of the switch sales this year, it was normal.

There's no need be so defensive; this isn't a personal attack on you, just a discussion on a video game forum.