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Forums - Sales Discussion - JAPAN Consoles Showdown: 2023 |Completed|

Shtinamin_ said:

May I ask why you think so?

The only month of december for Switch that has beaten DS'2008 of december is in it's peak period - December 2020 where Switch made 1.29M, DS's december of 2008 is 1.11M. No other December of Switch's years has beaten this. So if 2019 and 2021 couldn't beat DS's december of 2008, then 2023 more than surely won't.

The question here is, by how much Switch's december will be behind. Last few december's for Switch were:

2020 - 1.29M

2021 - 0.96M

2022 - 0.76M

So it is falling down between 200 and 300k per year. Which it means that 2023 december should be somewhere around 500k to 600k at max. Around half of what DS's sold in 2008'december

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 02 December 2023

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XtremeBG said:
Shtinamin_ said:

May I ask why you think so?

The only month of december for Switch that has beaten DS'2008 of december is in it's peak period - December 2020 where Switch made 1.29M, DS's december of 2008 is 1.11M. No other December of Switch's years has beaten this. So if 2019 and 2021 couldn't beat DS's december of 2008, then 2023 more than surely won't.

The question here is, by how much Switch's december will be behind. Last few december's for Switch were:

2020 - 1.29M

2021 - 0.96M

2022 - 0.76M

So it is falling down between 200 and 300k per year. Which it means that 2023 december should be somewhere around 500k to 600k at max. Around half of what DS's sold in 2008'december

That makes sense. Maybe the last week of November we see a pre-season boost? I think Nov 27-Dec 3 will sell around 90,000. Making the total for November, 399k. Switch would need 600k. Yeah its gonna be a difficult last month. I believe.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Norion said:
Shtinamin_ said:

May I ask why you think so?

Look at what it sold last holiday season in Japan and consider how it'll sell less than that this time. It's not gonna get any weeks anywhere close to the 250k ones the DS did.

It doesnt need to sell 250k per week. It only needs 138k per week to match the DS. Granted this is will be a tough battle for the Switch in its 7th year.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 03 December 2023

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:

Look at what it sold last holiday season in Japan and consider how it'll sell less than that this time. It's not gonna get any weeks anywhere close to the 250k ones the DS did.

It doesnt need to sell 250k per week. It only needs 138k per week to match the DS. Granted this is will be a tough battle for the Switch in its 7th year.

Yeah that's why I said it'll end up around 4.2m. It should either sell a bit more in the end or a bit less which is extremely impressive for a console this old. It'll likely remain the best selling system in Japan forever considering the population decline.



Numbers and charts have been updated with WEEK 49 from Famitsu.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 07 December 2023

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Numbers have been updated with WEEK 50 from Famitsu.



Switch is ~2 weeks of DS '08 Dec sales worth ahead of the DS '08 (still not safe for Switch)
PS5 is ~1 week of DS '14 Dec sales worth behind of the DS '14 (PS5 is gotta put the petal to the metal)
Xbox Series X/S battle was won back in March (looking back that is easy to see, but at the time it is a valid and understandable battle)



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 51 from Famitsu.



In order for Switch '23 to beat NDS '08, it will need to sell more than 147,070 units on average for the next 3 weeks. And seeing how the Switch '23 for Dec (Nov 27-Dec 17) in Japan is averaging ~89k units per week things are not looking good for the Switch.

Switch is ~1.5 weeks worth of NDS '08 December sales ahead of the NDS '08. Switch is fighting to stay on top.
PS5 is now >1 weeks worth of 3DS '14 busy December sales behind of the 3DS '14. PS5 is having a "bad holiday", compared to other consoles in Japan.
Xbox Series X/S be sitting pretty safe above PS4 '23. Though it had a small slip this week, hopefully it can stay above +70k more than PS4 '23.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

In order for Switch '23 to beat NDS '08, it will need to sell more than 147,070 units on average for the next 3 weeks. And seeing how the Switch '23 for Dec (Nov 27-Dec 17) in Japan is averaging ~89k units per week things are not looking good for the Switch.

The weeks for Switch are 52 this calendar year. As it is according to VGChartz in hardware by date. The first week of January is ending on 7th. The last week will end on 31st Dec. I don't know why Famitsu has 53 weeks. I am only taking the numbers from Famitsu when they released because VGChartz releases monthly number only and we have to wait a whole month. After the data for the month come out I adjust them according to VGChartz. I can't count 53 weeks for 2023 and just count the last actual calendar week for 2022 (ending on Dec 31st.) as 2023, or the first week of 2024 (Ending Jan 6th) as week of 2023. It's just not right. For reference the DS's first week of 2008 is ending Jan 5th (5 days in 2008) and it's last week is ending Jan 3rd (only 3 days into 2009). VGChartz has 2008 year of the DS as 4.2M, so am I. The 2023 year for Switch is going to be counted as 52 weeks here on VGChartz. So I am doing the same.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 21 December 2023