There may have been some factoring in of the PSP in Japan, but definitely not the Playstation 4, don't think Nintendo gave one crap about the PS4 in any of their considerations for 3DS or Wii U.

The DS was simply hitting a saturation point in Japan which I think was more relevant to them. 

By the end of 2009 (Dec 31,2009) the DS had sold just a hair under 30 million (29.92 million). That's a lot of systems sold in 5 years basically. The system would hit 32.6 million by the end of 2010 (one year later) and finish at 32.99 million in Japan by mid 2012. So basically from the end of 2009 to the end of its product cycle the DS only sold about 3 million units in Japan total. Now would that have been different if they didn't announce 3DS? For a year probably, but I think there still would've been decline YoY and that wouldn't have made Nintendo happy because once you get used to a high level of hardware shipments, it's hard to go back to lower shipments for multiple years. You want to get back to high level shipments again (5+ million sales in Japan a year for example). Hence 3DS. 

So it had definitely started to slow a lot in Japan. In Europe too. The US was actually the main market where the DS still had a lot of juice by the end of 2009, but that probably has a lot to do with the GBA being hugely successful in the US/Americas market and that had held the DS' sales potential back for a while in the early part of its product cycle here. 

Market saturation is a thing, you can't just can't selling indefinitely into infinity with newer and newer audiences, there's a limit to the amount of people who like video games enough that they feel they must have a game machine. The longer you go in a gen the more market saturation becomes a problem, it's just the way it goes. 

Well for what it's worth, the guy who wrote the OG post has updated it to clarify some stuff



He added some more info about the Pokemon DLC.The DLC goes through early 2024, and the Japanese wording he uses there is "Next Generation" Switch to clarify. 

Someone on another message board said Nintendo had shown the Direct to English media/press but I haven't found anyone else that's verified that so who knows at this point what's going on.

Next gen this year would just feel way too soon.

Usually by the end of a system's life I'm itching for the next system but with the Switch I'm like okay waiting on TotK, 2D Mario, Prime 2 and 3, Prime 4, DK, Z:WW, Z:TP, more MK8 courses, maybe a Star Fox, would love a new 2D Zelda, and how about Excitebike/truck, Kid Icarus, Punch Out, Galaxy 2 port since it was oddly left out of All-Stars, a second Ring Fit game for us 14 million or so ring owners, or a 3D Wario game, Mario & Luigi, Golden Sun, bring back 1080 snowboarding, pilotwings, wave race...not that I expect all these games on Switch but certainly some of them otherwise it'd just feel like Nintendo moved on from Switch's massive userbase too soon. I don't think it even matters if HW sales slow significantly considering how Switch games sell.

That's 21 games listed there and only one of them is officially announced for Switch. So there is still tons more software they could bring to Switch, and there's no reason they couldn't bring the hardware prices down to $150/$230/$280 to spur on HW sales for a bit longer (and therefore get more software sales) given that supply problems are alleviating and so chip costs should be going back down and Nintendo was making bank on Switch HW since launch.

I could see May/June 2024 launch as it would spare Nintendo half a year of slow hardware sales in summer/Fall 2024, or holiday 2024 launch, depending on how many games they are finishing up for Switch, and also how far along presumably MK9 and 3D Mario are for the next gen launch. I'd prefer holiday 2024 in the hope that a bunch of those games I mentioned above are planned for the Switch over the next 18 months. If Switch can at least get Z:WW, 2D Mario, 2D Zelda, Kid Icarus, Prime 2,3,4, DK, and like two more of those games I think that would be enough to feel like Nintendo gave the Switch its due and can move on to next-gen.

I mean it'll be cool to get PS4-level graphics on Mario and stuff when next-gen launches, but there ain't no need to rush it when they can sell Switch games to a 120/130/140+ million strong userbase. Switch hardware may be starting to near saturation but that doesn't mean software sales are getting saturated. It's software where Nintendo makes its riches so keep the Switch games coming! We don't need next-gen soon.

The leaker is back, says that the new system is a next-gen console, not a Pro model. "次世代機" translates to "next-gen machines". He also says that DLC 2 is Q1 2024 as far as he knows, and since he previously said the new Switch hardware would release alongside DLC 2, we can peg Switch 2's release for Q1 2024 now:

Why are people so fixated on a 2024 release of Switch 2? As if anything else would be outrageous. A 2023 release I see as nearly impossible but 2025? What's wrong about that? 2026 is unlikely but still more likely than 2023.

I do hope Switch 2 comes next year.

Because 2025 would be a bad business decision so it releasing then would mean Nintendo messed up. By the 2nd half of 2024 Switch sales will be getting low and dropping fast so their investors would get pretty unhappy if they let hardware and software sales decline throughout all of next year.

People want their graphics!

Hhhmmm, nope. Personally, it sounds like a smooth backpedaling method of someone who got way ahead of himself.

Still, I think a Q1 release for a new Switch console seems to soon to make the transition more clear cut between both consoles.
Early 2025 looks more promising to me and I'll keep banging on such prediction.

Switch 2 in 2025 looks more like a wish than a prediction.