That would be a nice surprise if NSW2 was launching this holiday, don’t see it happening though.

It's still a much more convincing argument than the counter "look at the DS to 3DS transition" because of two reasons:

1. Back then Nintendo was hell-bent on beating Sony to the punch for the next generation. The PS6 isn't launching anytime soon, so there's absolutely no point in rushing out a system like the 3DS again.

2. The DS to 3DS transition was very costly for Nintendo, so once again it's incredibly hard to make sense out of a sped up transition for Switch to its successor.

When looking at historic precedences, it's important to also consider the surrounding circumstances and see if they compare well with the current situation.

...

As a general response to this thread, apparently it came to light that the leaker supposedly didn't have as much confidential information as it seemed at first, calling into question how trustworthy their follow-up information is. Looks like yet another case of a lot of fuzz about nothing, but that's the name of the game in a medium where next to nothing special happens anymore. It's not like such speculation is burying other threads around here.

I don't think Nintendo gave one fart about Sony when launching the 3DS or Wii U, lol. PS3 wasn't exactly the market leader at that point, circa 2010 it was the no.3 console on the market. 

Welp, now the supposed leaker with factual infos has been done dirty. I think we can focus on not believing that a successor will magically come out this holiday.

Major doubt on the Switch Pro. It wouldn't make sense at this point in the Switch's lifecycle.

Its probably a new SKU

New platform will likely be announced sometime in early 2024 and released shortly after like the Switch.

But the fact that there's a graphical upgrade mentioned for Scarlet/Violet , hopefully that is alluding to b/c.

Nintendo buying Monster Hunter exclusivity for approximately five years shows how much Nintendo cared about Sony. They went straight for the jugular which resulted in the first and only exit from a console manufacturer since Sega's Dreamcast.

Monster Hunter wasn't really as big of a thing on the Playstation home consoles though just the PSP. I don't think at that point Nintendo really cared much about when the PS4 was coming. The Wii already had the console side MH exclusivity (instead of PS3) so Capcom choosing to expand that to the 3DS given the DS was the dominant platform in Japan and MH was mainly a Japanese centric franchise at that time wasn't a big shocker. 

I think the decision to release 3DS in 2011 had a lot more to do with DS sales in Japan starting to slow and hit a saturation point. If you look at the DS sales in 2010 for Japan, the growth was starting to wane. When a system is a big success in Japan I think Nintendo still tends to look at that market for lead trends first, what they probably saw was the DS was slowing in Japan and figured decline in the West was not far off. 

Beyond that I think Nintendo simply views 6 years as a normal, successful, long product cycle. In the current QA, they keep repeating that 7 years for the Switch is unprecedented territory for them in a way to kind of say "hey we're going to try our best to maintain sales via software releases, but growth is pretty hard with a system this old, it's uncharted territory for us, don't expect miracles here" to shareholders. 

This fall seems too soon. I could see manufacturing starting in Q4 for a March 2024 release, but I don't see it releasing any earlier or later than some time next year.