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Slownenberg on 01 March 2023
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Next gen this year would just feel way too soon.

Usually by the end of a system's life I'm itching for the next system but with the Switch I'm like okay waiting on TotK, 2D Mario, Prime 2 and 3, Prime 4, DK, Z:WW, Z:TP, more MK8 courses, maybe a Star Fox, would love a new 2D Zelda, and how about Excitebike/truck, Kid Icarus, Punch Out, Galaxy 2 port since it was oddly left out of All-Stars, a second Ring Fit game for us 14 million or so ring owners, or a 3D Wario game, Mario & Luigi, Golden Sun, bring back 1080 snowboarding, pilotwings, wave race...not that I expect all these games on Switch but certainly some of them otherwise it'd just feel like Nintendo moved on from Switch's massive userbase too soon. I don't think it even matters if HW sales slow significantly considering how Switch games sell.

That's 21 games listed there and only one of them is officially announced for Switch. So there is still tons more software they could bring to Switch, and there's no reason they couldn't bring the hardware prices down to $150/$230/$280 to spur on HW sales for a bit longer (and therefore get more software sales) given that supply problems are alleviating and so chip costs should be going back down and Nintendo was making bank on Switch HW since launch.

I could see May/June 2024 launch as it would spare Nintendo half a year of slow hardware sales in summer/Fall 2024, or holiday 2024 launch, depending on how many games they are finishing up for Switch, and also how far along presumably MK9 and 3D Mario are for the next gen launch. I'd prefer holiday 2024 in the hope that a bunch of those games I mentioned above are planned for the Switch over the next 18 months. If Switch can at least get Z:WW, 2D Mario, 2D Zelda, Kid Icarus, Prime 2,3,4, DK, and like two more of those games I think that would be enough to feel like Nintendo gave the Switch its due and can move on to next-gen.

I mean it'll be cool to get PS4-level graphics on Mario and stuff when next-gen launches, but there ain't no need to rush it when they can sell Switch games to a 120/130/140+ million strong userbase. Switch hardware may be starting to near saturation but that doesn't mean software sales are getting saturated. It's software where Nintendo makes its riches so keep the Switch games coming! We don't need next-gen soon.