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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?


Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?

Less than 12 million 56 8.22%
12.0 - 13.9 million 29 4.26%
14.0 - 15.9 million 73 10.72%
16.0 - 17.9 million 100 14.68%
18.0 - 19.9 million 142 20.85%
20.0 - 21.9 million 116 17.03%
22.0 - 23.9 million 49 7.20%
24.0 - 25.9 million 28 4.11%
26.0 - 28.0 million 11 1.62%
More than 28 million 77 11.31%

I'm thinking about 15.5M for the year. So voted for the 14 to 16M bracket but it could end up in the 16 to 18M very easily. I'd be very surprised if it ended above 18M though.

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Kakadu18 said:

Wanted to post that gif where a guy in a conference room gets up and jumps out of the window. Somehow didn't work.

Why do you refuse to even try to make a reasonable prediction based on any kind of logical argument and existing data?
Nobody can take you seriously like this.

Here is a reality check.  In last year's thread you predicted 16M+ for PS5 sales in 2022.  I predicted 10M - 11.9M.  Actual sales are about 13M.  In reality my prediction was closer than yours.

A good prediction is not based on what you personally think is reasonable.  It's not based on what the most popular opinion is.  It's also not based on whatever mathematical model for data that is most commonly used on this forum.  A good prediction is the one that most accurately predicts what the sales data will be.  Period.

You are saying that I am not reasonable, when my last prediction was better than yours.

When all of December gets added it might be over 14m and if not it'll be close to 14m so yours will be only slightly closer numbers wise at most. You also predicted that Europe would be the only place to see YoY growth when it was the only major region to see a YoY decline due to lack of stock there so your prediction overall was really inaccurate which should make you reconsider your PS5 expectations.

A lot under 12m doesn't make sense since probably over half of PS5 sales this year would have to be from Europe for that to happen which is completely unrealistic. If Europe is the only major region you expect the PS5 to do well in why do you expect it to sell a lot less this year when this should be the first year Europe has at least an ok amount of stock sent over? 

Last edited by Norion - on 11 January 2023

ironmanDX said:

I'm the 3rd xbot (almost in a row) to post something similar. That's how bad that prediction is. 

Under 12 Mil... Way off bro. I'd almost expect the series X/S to surpass that. 

It will, I'd even stake money that it will. It's looking like Xbox Series sold over 10m in 2022 with no exclusives and Series X stock still limited. No way they don't at least sell 12m in 2023 with Starfield, Forza, Redfall, and more as exclusives, better Series X stock, better bundles for S and X, the likely return of the $250 S deal for Holiday 2023, etc.

The only good thing about this prediction of PS5 selling way less than 12 mi is that it will be really obvious before June that it will sell significantly sell more than 12 mi

Expecting Liquid Laser to keep on denial though

SONY plans to sell more 37 million PS5 units by the third fiscal year(March 2023).And somewhere in the fourth fiscal year(March 2024), it will overtake PS4 (60 million units).

From that calculation, They need at least 23 million units.
But since what you are asking is until December of this year, it won't completely match up.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 11 January 2023

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Doctor_MG said:

Last year I predicted around 15M for PS5 and 9.5M for Xbox Series. Based on the numbers we have, I overshot PS by about 1.5-2M and undershot Xbox Series by around .75M-1M. Still, overall, my reasoning was sound. I believed there would be continued supply chain problems and that MS would eat into what Sony could produce more significantly than others may have predicted.

Still, I think this year the PS5 will fair much better, provided there are no huge economic difficulties. I'm thinking 18M. It seems like a major jump in comparison to what this year provided, but I think that there won't be significant supply issues this year. My second prediction is that this will be the first year that PS5 outsells the Nintendo Switch for the year worldwide.

I'd say the biggest question is did Sony learn from their prior statement of, we've broken even on PS5 already? 

If so, then you're probably more right than wrong since Sony recently said they're quite confident the supply issues are over.

If not, then we may be in for some minor or major lack of supply again, holding PS5 sales back yet again.

The other question than being, is Sony just saying this so people who've been waiting for a PS5 don't just say, screw it, I'm getting an XB instead?

Supply has improved quite a bit recently, so I would guess it's more likely Sony has better thought ahead this time and is being more honest than not.

Last edited by ConservagameR - on 12 January 2023

Voted for 16m-17.9m. I guess it's possible it could be a little less when you consider bad economy/chip shortage problems but it could also be a little more if all goes well for Sony. Either way, next year will be bigger.

If supply was unlimited, I think it could go as high as 30 million, the pent up demand and FOMO/hype going for it is insane.

In reality though, I doubt they'll be able to make nearly that many.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 13 January 2023

I'll go with 20.5 million.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Under 12M. A lot under 12M. 2022 was the peak year for PS5 sales.

Why would it peak while supply is constrained and there are hardly any exclusives, then decline once supply improves and big games start to come out that you can't play on last gen?