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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?

Less than 12 million 56 8.58%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 27 4.13%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 70 10.72%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 94 14.40%
 
18.0 - 19.9 million 134 20.52%
 
20.0 - 21.9 million 110 16.85%
 
22.0 - 23.9 million 46 7.04%
 
24.0 - 25.9 million 28 4.29%
 
26.0 - 28.0 million 11 1.68%
 
More than 28 million 77 11.79%
 
Total:653
trunkswd said:

I know the estimates for running late. But I am waiting on the Europe December report and NPD December report before doing the rest of December estimates. 

I know that. It wasn't meant to criticize VGC or you, but merely an explanation why the order of the polls will differ this year. Instead of guessing three to four weeks of sales myself, I just take Sony's official word for now and hope for more information to become available until the other two polls have their turn.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
trunkswd said:

I know the estimates for running late. But I am waiting on the Europe December report and NPD December report before doing the rest of December estimates. 

I know that. It wasn't meant to criticize VGC or you, but merely an explanation why the order of the polls will differ this year. Instead of guessing three to four weeks of sales myself, I just take Sony's official word for now and hope for more information to become available until the other two polls have their turn.

I was just pointing it out in case people have missed why the estimates are late.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Voted 16-17.9m. Sony's CFO apparently claimed they will be able to ship 23m units in the next fiscal year (April 2023-March 2024), and most of that year is on Calendar 2023, but Sony has consistently overestimated their production capabilities this entire gen (they initially predicted 22m shipments in FY2021 but later had to revise that down to 15m shipments, then they predicted 22.6m shipments for the current fiscal year which ends in March, yet they have only sold through to consumers about 12.5-13m in the first 9 months of the fiscal year so far). And even if they can produce close to the 23m they claim they will be able to ship, they may have trouble selling them all to consumers with the world moving into a recession as inflation soars, considering PS5 is a fairly pricey luxury item, and I doubt Sony plans a price cut on either model anytime in 2023. Maybe they can manage to sell more than 17.9m to consumers in calendar 2023, but I personally wouldn't bet on it at this time. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 10 January 2023

I won't make a specific guess before their next shipment report, but currently I would expect it to land on the good side of 20m.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

Multiplat 2023 Opencritic Prediction League

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

18-20mil, the chip shortages should get better now and they should be able to produce more.



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14 million



我是广州人

23 m
That might be too much, but sony said they would not have supply issues this year. Makes me confident. Will be crazy just seeing it in stores.



I'm going with 20M - 23M+.

Sony has already, significantly, improved supply last year. They produced over 6M's PS5's in a quarter which would be unheard of with the shortages in 2021. They shipped enough PS5's to win consecutive NPD's since August, the most competitive region for all three consoles, and had a strong holiday for Japan as well despite the price increase. They also have a new PS5 model this year which should further improve production/supply chains.



Under 12M. A lot under 12M. 2022 was the peak year for PS5 sales.





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