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I'm going with 20M - 23M+.

Sony has already, significantly, improved supply last year. They produced over 6M's PS5's in a quarter which would be unheard of with the shortages in 2021. They shipped enough PS5's to win consecutive NPD's since August, the most competitive region for all three consoles, and had a strong holiday for Japan as well despite the price increase. They also have a new PS5 model this year which should further improve production/supply chains.