PS Studios output matters as well, but nowhere near as much. Sony have a proven track record and with GoW Ragnarok getting yet another extremely high review score, people are at the point where they have a considerable amount of trust in PS first party output.

XB doesn't have this luxury, and with the Halo Infinite launch and handling since, they've pretty much got just expectations still. Until XB puts out a few undeniably amazing first party games, or starts and keeps putting out widely considered worthy games, they won't have near the confidence from people as PS does. 

PS would need to put out a couple AAA games in a row that flat out bombed hard for people to feel uneasy about their future games. While that's possible it's very unlikely based on what we've seen for over a decade now.

120-140 million.

120+ million

I believe VR2 will be a huge selling point

If PSVR2 takes off, Xbox will probably officially support a 3rd party headset, likely Quest 3.

No, worse, they will release Kinect 2

Gods help us.

120 million. I think people are crazy for thinking less than 100 million.

I'm still sticking with 105. I don't think the console market has grown and i think demand will normalize, and there are already signs of that happening.

I think the only way it goes over 105 is if the generation lasts longer than expected. This is certainly possible. Moore's law is reaching its limits and a pro refresh could massively extend the life span of this generation.

About 105, but closer to 110 or a little above is still relatively likely.

It's still tough to predict the next 5+years. We'll have to see if once PS5 shortages reduce greatly (hopefully 2023) how much that will affect sales.

I feel the same way. The ps5 might be the longest playstation generation yet. You need a santa monica studio plus countless support people to make something as high level as God of War Ragnarok. And that runs on the ps4. How would a game possibly look that the ps5 cannot run. It's generation is going to be very long before people migrate to the ps6.

Now you can say that even if gow runs on the ps4, that console does not sell anymore. But: these are lessons learnt. There was no need for the ps5 this early. It could have been a better machine with 2 extra years. Sony knows that and will change the ps6 release accordingly. I say 2029 at the earliest. Until than ps5 will be over 120 easily.

Also, everybody seems very satisfied with the ps4 and its exclusives, especially in comparison to the xbox one and its games. That is (hopefully) gonna change come this generation. And it is going to make the xbox series sell more than last gen. But as it stands: most ps4 owners have good reason to stay with playstation (and perhaps buy an xbox in addition for elder scrolls, fallout, halo, and other titles in their ever more compelling catalogue).

I also think that due to online integration, trophies, a digital game catalogue you theoretically carry over to the new generation, people are less likely to jump ship than 2 gens ago.

I can see 130. But 120 due to its unfortunate start is more likely.