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Forums - Sales Discussion - Lifetime Console Showdown: March 2024 (JAPAN) + Update

 

Will the PS5 outsell PS4?

Yes 3 37.50%
 
No 5 62.50%
 
Total:8

So, as of today, the Nintendo Switch would need another 22m units to beat the PS2.

Am I right? And that's without December 2023 estimates.

I'd applaud them if they'd actually manage to overtake the PS2. I still see the door being slightly open for that to happen.

Unless Sony is then going to specify their +155m number and all of the sudden pull out a 160m figure or something.

Man, even the possibilty alone that the Switch can make it if stars align perfectly next year REALLY is an amazing achievement.

My suggestion based on recent year-on-year data and software forecast: At the end of its lifecycle, Switch will come very, very close, but will miss the PS2 narrowly by ~5-6m units.

As for the PS5:

I personally think it's pretty much clear right now that the PS5 needs a very good software line-up in its second part of its lifecycle - at least if we are talking sales figures above 100m.

What looks promising though is the fact that, except from Insomniac, Housemarque and Guerilla Games (at least with the Horizon DLC), all the other First Party studios have yet to release, partially to even announce their working titles yet.

PS5's second half-time will very likely see at least the following native PS5 games, at least what I personally believe/know:

Gran Turismo 8, Wolverine, The Last of Us III/new IP, Ghost of Tsushima 2, Spiderman 3, God of War 3, Killzone 4 and/or Horizon, 2-3 VR2 AA/A games.

Still leaving out unannounced new projects from Studios like Sucker Punch, Bend, Housemarque, Firespite and Bluepoint.

Sony already has or is still building up other portfolios like the INZONE brand, plates and DualSense Edge. 

With possible price cuts for the PS5, PSVR2 and promising Third Party software deals still to come.

IF all that is going to happen, which is not really a big If, I can definitely see the PS5 to overtake PS4 easily.

Don't know why I have specific numbers in my head already, but I estimate the final PS5 sales to be around ~132-136m.



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Panicradio said:

So, as of today, the Nintendo Switch would need another 22m units to beat the PS2.

Am I right? And that's without December 2023 estimates.

I'd applaud them if they'd actually manage to overtake the PS2. I still see the door being slightly open for that to happen.

Unless Sony is then going to specify their +155m number and all of the sudden pull out a 160m figure or something.

Man, even the possibilty alone that the Switch can make it if stars align perfectly next year REALLY is an amazing achievement.

My suggestion based on recent year-on-year data and software forecast: At the end of its lifecycle, Switch will come very, very close, but will miss the PS2 narrowly by ~5-6m units.

PS2 is calculated to be somewhere between 159M and 161M. Since there is not official announcement we can go with the lower number. (Since the 155M were officially announced in march 2012, they sold PS2 till january 2013). Therefore the Switch (133M) needs to sell at least 27M more to safely say that it beat the PS2 sales. And even with perfectly align stars next year, the Switch will need a tad bit more than that. Let's first focus on the DS.. as this will be difficult too, given the decline Switch is just having this holiday season (which is a sign for the next year that weekly/monthly sales are dropping too). For both of those things to happen they will have to launch the Switch Pro next year (which will prolong it's life and will somewhat soften the decline), cutting the price of the three models we have now by 100$ and delaying the successor till at least 2025 holidays.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 17 December 2023

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown  /  YOY Charts

XtremeBG said:
Panicradio said:

So, as of today, the Nintendo Switch would need another 22m units to beat the PS2.

Am I right? And that's without December 2023 estimates.

I'd applaud them if they'd actually manage to overtake the PS2. I still see the door being slightly open for that to happen.

Unless Sony is then going to specify their +155m number and all of the sudden pull out a 160m figure or something.

Man, even the possibilty alone that the Switch can make it if stars align perfectly next year REALLY is an amazing achievement.

My suggestion based on recent year-on-year data and software forecast: At the end of its lifecycle, Switch will come very, very close, but will miss the PS2 narrowly by ~5-6m units.

PS2 is calculated to be somewhere between 159M and 161M. Since there is not official announcement we can go with the lower number. (Since the 155M were officially announced in march 2012, they sold PS2 till january 2013). Therefore the Switch (133M) needs to sell at least 27M more to safely say that it beat the PS2 sales. And even with perfectly align stars next year, the Switch will need a tad bit more than that. Let's first focus on the DS.. as this will be difficult too, given the decline Switch is just having this holiday season (which is a sign for the next year that weekly/monthly sales are dropping too). For both of those things to happen they will have to launch the Switch Pro next year (which will prolong it's life and will somewhat soften the decline), cutting the price of the three models we have now by 100$ and delaying the successor till at least 2025 holidays.

Stop making things up, the PS2 has officially sold 155.1 million as of March 2012. Anything above that is pure speculation. It is not between 159 million and 161 million, that is completely made up. Is it above 155.1 million, yes because the PS2 was discontinued January 2013. Zhuge seems to be a trusted source for these figures but his evaluation was incorrect. Installbase.com has a thread about the mistake they made but in summary Zhuge assumed the PS2 may have not been down the fiscal year April 2012 to March 2013 because Sony didn't mention the PS2 as a "significant" reason for why Sony hardware had declined that fiscal year. Zhuge speaks english but I believe it is their second language. This is important because it begs the question of why someone would expect Sony to name a 12 year old console's decline as a "significant" reason instead of the declining PS3, or a declining Vita, or a dead PSP? All of those platforms would obviously be more "significant" reasons for Sony's declining business instead of a 12 year old PS2. Fiscal year ending March 2012, the PS2 had sold 4.1 million. So Zhuge entertained the idea that it could have been flat or even up (because Sony didn't mention it as down) allowing the range to be possibly between 159 and 161 million but that is incorrect because Sony never commented at all. Now heres the fun part of how bad Zhuge's analysis was truly, you realize if the PS2 was discontinued by December 2012/early January 2013 then that means the PS2's final year was missing an entire quarter (January 2013 - March 2013)? How in the world can you explain the PS2 selling 4.1 million in its 12th year (April 2011 to March 2012) with a full 4 quarters but then matching that or even exceeding that in its 13th year (April 2012 to December 2012/early Jan 2013) missing an entire quarter? We simply don't have enough evidence to pinpoint PS2, what we know is the PS2 exceeded 155.1 million as of March 2012. Whatever it did above that is unknown.

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 19 December 2023

Phenomajp13 said:
XtremeBG said:

PS2 is calculated to be somewhere between 159M and 161M. Since there is not official announcement we can go with the lower number. (Since the 155M were officially announced in march 2012, they sold PS2 till january 2013). Therefore the Switch (133M) needs to sell at least 27M more to safely say that it beat the PS2 sales. And even with perfectly align stars next year, the Switch will need a tad bit more than that. Let's first focus on the DS.. as this will be difficult too, given the decline Switch is just having this holiday season (which is a sign for the next year that weekly/monthly sales are dropping too). For both of those things to happen they will have to launch the Switch Pro next year (which will prolong it's life and will somewhat soften the decline), cutting the price of the three models we have now by 100$ and delaying the successor till at least 2025 holidays.

Stop making things up, the PS2 has officially sold 155.1 million as of March 2012. Anything above that is pure speculation. It is not between 159 million and 161 million, that is completely made up. Is it above 155.1 million, yes because the PS2 was discontinued January 2013. Zhuge seems to be a trusted source for these figures but his evaluation was incorrect. Installbase.com has a thread about the mistake they made but in summary Zhuge assumed the PS2 may have not been down the fiscal year April 2012 to March 2013 because Sony didn't mention the PS2 as a "significant" reason for why Sony hardware had declined that fiscal year. Zhuge speaks english but I believe it is their second language. This is important because it begs the question of why someone would expect Sony to name a 12 year old console's decline as a "significant" reason instead of the declining PS3, or a declining Vita, or a dead PSP? All of those platforms would obviously be more "significant" reasons for Sony's declining business instead of a 12 year old PS2. Fiscal year ending March 2012, the PS2 had sold 4.1 million. So Zhuge entertained the idea that it could have been flat or even up (because Sony didn't mention it as down) allowing the range to be possibly between 159 and 161 million but that is incorrect because Sony never commented at all. Now heres the fun part of how bad Zhuge's analysis was truly, you realize if the PS2 was discontinued by December 2012/early January 2013 then that means the PS2's final year was missing an entire quarter (January 2013 - March 2013)? How in the world can you explain the PS2 selling 4.1 million in its 12th year (April 2011 to March 2012) with a full 4 quarters but then matching that or even exceeding that in its 13th year (April 2012 to December 2012/early Jan 2013) missing an entire quarter? We simply don't have enough evidence to pinpoint PS2, what we know is the PS2 exceeded 155.1 million as of March 2012. Whatever it did above that is unknown.

Is that you Uncle ALT?



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

Phenomajp13 said:

Stop making things up, the PS2 has officially sold 155.1 million as of March 2012. Anything above that is pure speculation. It is not between 159 million and 161 million, that is completely made up. Is it above 155.1 million, yes because the PS2 was discontinued January 2013. Zhuge seems to be a trusted source for these figures but his evaluation was incorrect. Installbase.com has a thread about the mistake they made but in summary Zhuge assumed the PS2 may have not been down the fiscal year April 2012 to March 2013 because Sony didn't mention the PS2 as a "significant" reason for why Sony hardware had declined that fiscal year. Zhuge speaks english but I believe it is their second language. This is important because it begs the question of why someone would expect Sony to name a 12 year old console's decline as a "significant" reason instead of the declining PS3, or a declining Vita, or a dead PSP? All of those platforms would obviously be more "significant" reasons for Sony's declining business instead of a 12 year old PS2. Fiscal year ending March 2012, the PS2 had sold 4.1 million. So Zhuge entertained the idea that it could have been flat or even up (because Sony didn't mention it as down) allowing the range to be possibly between 159 and 161 million but that is incorrect because Sony never commented at all. Now heres the fun part of how bad Zhuge's analysis was truly, you realize if the PS2 was discontinued by December 2012/early January 2013 then that means the PS2's final year was missing an entire quarter (January 2013 - March 2013)? How in the world can you explain the PS2 selling 4.1 million in its 12th year (April 2011 to March 2012) with a full 4 quarters but then matching that or even exceeding that in its 13th year (April 2012 to December 2012/early Jan 2013) missing an entire quarter? We simply don't have enough evidence to pinpoint PS2, what we know is the PS2 exceeded 155.1 million as of March 2012. Whatever it did above that is unknown.

I won't get into explanations. But get this, many people here and on the web already explained how they get to the 159 to 161M number. Also outside of this here on VGChartz the PS2 is at almost 159M. So you are calling VGChartz data wrong if you disagree. Also for the Switch to be called the best selling console by all people it has to undisputedly beat the PS2 number, and since there is big unclarity over the PS2 numbers, 160M will be "safe zone" where everyone can agree it is outsold the PS2.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown  /  YOY Charts

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XtremeBG said:

I won't get into explanations. But get this, many people here and on the web already explained how they get to the 159 to 161M number. Also outside of this here on VGChartz the PS2 is at almost 159M. So you are calling VGChartz data wrong if you disagree. Also for the Switch to be called the best selling console by all people it has to undisputedly beat the PS2 number, and since there is big unclarity over the PS2 numbers, 160M will be "safe zone" where everyone can agree it is outsold the PS2.

Yes, one of my first threads on this site was about the PS2 having to have sold more than 158m: PS2 shipments over 158.6m, breaking down missing fiscal data. (vgchartz.com)

One method I came to a minimum of 158.6m, a second method came to a minimum of 158.3m.

ZhugeEx claimed a minimum of 159.2m, but even if that is based on an incorrect assumption that the FY12 was not down my above methods both don't rely on that information and prove it's above 158m.

That the PS2 sold notably more than 155.1m is accepted by basically everyone with knowledge of console sales. It would be nice if one day we would get a final figure just as we did by surprise with the PSP this year thanks to Shawn Layden.

As for the Poll I am currently expecting the Switch to hit around 155m.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 19 December 2023

Zippy6 said:
XtremeBG said:

I won't get into explanations. But get this, many people here and on the web already explained how they get to the 159 to 161M number. Also outside of this here on VGChartz the PS2 is at almost 159M. So you are calling VGChartz data wrong if you disagree. Also for the Switch to be called the best selling console by all people it has to undisputedly beat the PS2 number, and since there is big unclarity over the PS2 numbers, 160M will be "safe zone" where everyone can agree it is outsold the PS2.

Yes, one of my first threads on this site was about the PS2 having to have sold more than 158m: PS2 shipments over 158.6m, breaking down missing fiscal data. (vgchartz.com)

One method I came to a minimum of 158.6m, a second method came to a minimum of 158.3m.

ZhugeEx claimed a minimum of 159.2m

That the PS2 sold notably more than 155.1m is accepted by basically everyone with knowledge of console sales. It would be nice if one day we would get a final figure just as we did by surprise with the PSP this year thanks to Shawn Layden.

As for the Poll I am currently expecting the Switch to hit around 155m.

Hadn't seem this PSP before, great.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Stop making things up, the PS2 has officially sold 155.1 million as of March 2012. Anything above that is pure speculation. It is not between 159 million and 161 million, that is completely made up. Is it above 155.1 million, yes because the PS2 was discontinued January 2013. Zhuge seems to be a trusted source for these figures but his evaluation was incorrect. Installbase.com has a thread about the mistake they made but in summary Zhuge assumed the PS2 may have not been down the fiscal year April 2012 to March 2013 because Sony didn't mention the PS2 as a "significant" reason for why Sony hardware had declined that fiscal year. Zhuge speaks english but I believe it is their second language. This is important because it begs the question of why someone would expect Sony to name a 12 year old console's decline as a "significant" reason instead of the declining PS3, or a declining Vita, or a dead PSP? All of those platforms would obviously be more "significant" reasons for Sony's declining business instead of a 12 year old PS2. Fiscal year ending March 2012, the PS2 had sold 4.1 million. So Zhuge entertained the idea that it could have been flat or even up (because Sony didn't mention it as down) allowing the range to be possibly between 159 and 161 million but that is incorrect because Sony never commented at all. Now heres the fun part of how bad Zhuge's analysis was truly, you realize if the PS2 was discontinued by December 2012/early January 2013 then that means the PS2's final year was missing an entire quarter (January 2013 - March 2013)? How in the world can you explain the PS2 selling 4.1 million in its 12th year (April 2011 to March 2012) with a full 4 quarters but then matching that or even exceeding that in its 13th year (April 2012 to December 2012/early Jan 2013) missing an entire quarter? We simply don't have enough evidence to pinpoint PS2, what we know is the PS2 exceeded 155.1 million as of March 2012. Whatever it did above that is unknown.

I won't get into explanations. But get this, many people here and on the web already explained how they get to the 159 to 161M number. Also outside of this here on VGChartz the PS2 is at almost 159M. So you are calling VGChartz data wrong if you disagree. Also for the Switch to be called the best selling console by all people it has to undisputedly beat the PS2 number, and since there is big unclarity over the PS2 numbers, 160M will be "safe zone" where everyone can agree it is outsold the PS2.

Vgchartz data are estimates, of course it's wrong. I don't care what you claim the Switch needs to do, the PS2 is 155.1 million as of March 2012 and until Sony says otherwise that is end of discussion. You don't get to move the goalpost as high as possible because of console warrior fear. You would never give the Switch a chance regardless of it's performance because you are moving the goalpost as high as possible just in case. The very thread about PS2's lifetime sales on this site doesn't mention 161 million but you continue to include it in your range for obvious reasons. As I already stated and a poster above just proved, the 4.1 million minimum is the proof of Zhuge's false assumption. The PS2 could be 156, 157, 158, or 159 million. We simply do not know. Switch needs to hit the 155.1 million and then it's up to Sony to clarify. Looking forward to seeing you in that thread and seeing what you have to say about the new information. Basically PS2 above 160 would put Vita below 12 million. We have accurate figures for all Playstation consoles besides Vita and PS2.

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 19 December 2023

Zippy6 said:
XtremeBG said:

I won't get into explanations. But get this, many people here and on the web already explained how they get to the 159 to 161M number. Also outside of this here on VGChartz the PS2 is at almost 159M. So you are calling VGChartz data wrong if you disagree. Also for the Switch to be called the best selling console by all people it has to undisputedly beat the PS2 number, and since there is big unclarity over the PS2 numbers, 160M will be "safe zone" where everyone can agree it is outsold the PS2.

Yes, one of my first threads on this site was about the PS2 having to have sold more than 158m: PS2 shipments over 158.6m, breaking down missing fiscal data. (vgchartz.com)

One method I came to a minimum of 158.6m, a second method came to a minimum of 158.3m.

ZhugeEx claimed a minimum of 159.2m, but even if that is based on an incorrect assumption that the FY12 was not down my above methods both don't rely on that information and prove it's above 158m.

That the PS2 sold notably more than 155.1m is accepted by basically everyone with knowledge of console sales. It would be nice if one day we would get a final figure just as we did by surprise with the PSP this year thanks to Shawn Layden.

As for the Poll I am currently expecting the Switch to hit around 155m.

Again, why don't you actually look at Zhuge's source? Zhuge assumes the PS2 had not declined because it wasn't mentioned but that's not what Sony said at all. Sony said the PS3, Vita, and PSP are the "significant' reasons for the decline. That does not mean the PS2 (a 12 year old console) wasn't also in decline, it just wasn't a "significant" reason for Playstations decline that year. The 159 million is bogus, as for the thread yeah that looks great. Needs updating because we got a PSP figure that was higher than people expected. The Vita is claimed by many on this site to have outsold WiiU, if it did then that puts the PS2 possibly under 158.

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 19 December 2023

Phenomajp13 said:
Zippy6 said:

Yes, one of my first threads on this site was about the PS2 having to have sold more than 158m: PS2 shipments over 158.6m, breaking down missing fiscal data. (vgchartz.com)

One method I came to a minimum of 158.6m, a second method came to a minimum of 158.3m.

ZhugeEx claimed a minimum of 159.2m, but even if that is based on an incorrect assumption that the FY12 was not down my above methods both don't rely on that information and prove it's above 158m.

That the PS2 sold notably more than 155.1m is accepted by basically everyone with knowledge of console sales. It would be nice if one day we would get a final figure just as we did by surprise with the PSP this year thanks to Shawn Layden.

As for the Poll I am currently expecting the Switch to hit around 155m.

Again, why don't you actually look at Zhuge's source? Zhuge assumes the PS2 had not declined because it wasn't mentioned but that's not what Sony said at all. Sony said the PS3, Vita, and PSP are the "significant' reasons for the decline. That does not mean the PS2 (a 12 year old console) wasn't also in decline, it just wasn't a "significant" reason for Playstations decline that year. The 159 million is bogus, as for the thread yeah that looks great. Needs updating because we got a PSP figure that was higher than people expected. The Vita is claimed by many on this site to have outsold WiiU, it it did then that puts the PS2 possibly under 158.

If they listed 3 systems (including PSP that was also ending life and PSVita that was very low on sales) as signifcant reason for the decline, PS2 (which was still being sold) not being listed is because whatever decline in sales compared to previous year is because whatever change wasn't significantly down (so most likely flat). You wanting to exclude it and go to 155.1 without anything for the extra year of production is laughable.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."