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So, as of today, the Nintendo Switch would need another 22m units to beat the PS2.

Am I right? And that's without December 2023 estimates.

I'd applaud them if they'd actually manage to overtake the PS2. I still see the door being slightly open for that to happen.

Unless Sony is then going to specify their +155m number and all of the sudden pull out a 160m figure or something.

Man, even the possibilty alone that the Switch can make it if stars align perfectly next year REALLY is an amazing achievement.

My suggestion based on recent year-on-year data and software forecast: At the end of its lifecycle, Switch will come very, very close, but will miss the PS2 narrowly by ~5-6m units.

As for the PS5:

I personally think it's pretty much clear right now that the PS5 needs a very good software line-up in its second part of its lifecycle - at least if we are talking sales figures above 100m.

What looks promising though is the fact that, except from Insomniac, Housemarque and Guerilla Games (at least with the Horizon DLC), all the other First Party studios have yet to release, partially to even announce their working titles yet.

PS5's second half-time will very likely see at least the following native PS5 games, at least what I personally believe/know:

Gran Turismo 8, Wolverine, The Last of Us III/new IP, Ghost of Tsushima 2, Spiderman 3, God of War 3, Killzone 4 and/or Horizon, 2-3 VR2 AA/A games.

Still leaving out unannounced new projects from Studios like Sucker Punch, Bend, Housemarque, Firespite and Bluepoint.

Sony already has or is still building up other portfolios like the INZONE brand, plates and DualSense Edge. 

With possible price cuts for the PS5, PSVR2 and promising Third Party software deals still to come.

IF all that is going to happen, which is not really a big If, I can definitely see the PS5 to overtake PS4 easily.

Don't know why I have specific numbers in my head already, but I estimate the final PS5 sales to be around ~132-136m.