Global Lifetime Showdown: September 2024

[XtremeBG]

Panicradio said:

So, as of today, the Nintendo Switch would need another 22m units to beat the PS2.

Am I right? And that's without December 2023 estimates.

I'd applaud them if they'd actually manage to overtake the PS2. I still see the door being slightly open for that to happen.

Unless Sony is then going to specify their +155m number and all of the sudden pull out a 160m figure or something.

Man, even the possibilty alone that the Switch can make it if stars align perfectly next year REALLY is an amazing achievement.

My suggestion based on recent year-on-year data and software forecast: At the end of its lifecycle, Switch will come very, very close, but will miss the PS2 narrowly by ~5-6m units.

PS2 is calculated to be somewhere between 159M and 161M. Since there is not official announcement we can go with the lower number. (Since the 155M were officially announced in march 2012, they sold PS2 till january 2013). Therefore the Switch (133M) needs to sell at least 27M more to safely say that it beat the PS2 sales. And even with perfectly align stars next year, the Switch will need a tad bit more than that. Let's first focus on the DS.. as this will be difficult too, given the decline Switch is just having this holiday season (which is a sign for the next year that weekly/monthly sales are dropping too). For both of those things to happen they will have to launch the Switch Pro next year (which will prolong it's life and will somewhat soften the decline), cutting the price of the three models we have now by 100$ and delaying the successor till at least 2025 holidays.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 17 December 2023