I predicted 12 million in the thread. I still mostly stand by that, but 13-16 million is very possible (if not more so). 

If Switch 2 releases March 2024 (like I predict), 2024 might be under 10 million. 

I think Switch will have a noticeable drop this year because like you said it is approaching saturation. Price cuts and maybe a very affordable TV-only Switch with more storage and a Pro Controller would probably be the only way Switch sells more than !5-16 million in 2023.

What people don't consider is that Nintendo had to correct the numbers down in 2021 and 2022 several millions because of chip-shortages. It is simply not realistic that the great majority of those who would have bought a Switch in 2021 or 2022 but couldn't, decided now to not buy a Switch at all. Realistically thinking, the majority of them will still buy a Switch (of course some from 2021 who couldn't buy one, bought one in 2022 already). So, if someone says, the Switch will "only" sell 15 mil. in 2023, the number they predict is in fact even smaller because of the people from 2021/22 who couldn't buy have to be taken account of. Therefore, there would only be around 7-8 mil. "new" people left who buy a Switch in 2023. I think this number is definitely too low.

Also, there are rumors that a new 2D-Mario is in development and maybe it will be the big holidays title in 2023. Even in the most pessimistic view, this would definitely boost the sales beyond 15 mil.

Every year of the Switch had significant games that weren't announced yet at the start of the year, so there are almost certainly 2023 games we currently have no idea about. It's highly unlikely Nintendo will go into the holidays without a major title for instance.

There should be enough software throughout the year to keep things humming along.

Yeah definitely expect a big year of game releases for the Switch. Numerous big games will probably come out this year. Zelda, 2D Mario, and Prime 4 would seem to be the obvious major games to come out this year, but with plenty more first party games as well.

HW under 15m is very unlikely, Switch is still very strong. It could be 17-18 million if Nintendo actively tries lol, like with HW and SW discounts. But I think 16m is a good prediction. I mean 15m would literally be just 2m, 2m, 2m, 9m for the quarters. Holiday might be under 9m next year but the other quarters should all definitely be over 2m. I could see something 3m, 3m, 2m, >8m for the quarters which would be >16m.

I feel like 15 million is a high number. I obviously am no analyst or economist, but inflation is brutal. I see it getting worse in 2023.
There was a time when the Switch (in Canada) was knocked down $20 bucks to 379.99, but in 2022 they bumped it back up to 399.99. I don't think price drops will be a thing.

I want to be wrong.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch never gets a global price drop, similar to how PS4 never dropped below $300.
The days of consoles getting down to very low prices are probably over.

I could actually see Switch getting a price drop in 2024 if a successor doesn't launch until 2025. Either way, I don't see a price drop being likely at all anyways.

But we need 2 Let’s go versions , so hope they include additional content similar to Crystal 

Depends on the games outside of what’s confirmed/planned. But I think the Switch’s momentum hasn’t declined significantly as some presumed so there may be months where the Switch is near the top in the US and European markets while battling the XS and PS5 which are getting more stock at retail. Plus, there are no signs that the PS5 will catch up with the Switch on a weekly basis in Japan (both hardware and software) even when the Switch is on the decline.

Yeah this year Switch will be crushing the competition in Japan, be below PS5 but well above Xbox in Europe, and it should be close between all three in the US but Switch will likely drift down to a consistent third there. And Switch's holiday season will likely be lower than PS5 and maybe just on par or slightly better than Xbox.

Overall Switch will easily outsell Xbox this year but PS5 will probably beat it by a few million. Maybe Xbox does like 12-13m, Switch does ~16m, and PS5 19-20m.