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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch sales expectations for 2023

 

Unit sales (million) of Switch in 2023?

11M or less 7 5.83%
 
12M 3 2.50%
 
13M 3 2.50%
 
14M 4 3.33%
 
15M 19 15.83%
 
16M 15 12.50%
 
17M 20 16.67%
 
18M 27 22.50%
 
19M 6 5.00%
 
20M or more 16 13.33%
 
Total:120
super_etecoon on 24 September 2022
siebensus4 said:

Do you guys think that we will see a Mario game next year, which will share content of the animated movie, which will be released April 7, 2023?

I can see a chance for a potential release in March 2023 or autumn, although there are no rumors yet. A new 3D Mario game would underline the strong first party support for next year, which should definitely push Switch sales up to 17-18M in 2023.

I have my own theory regarding the Mario movie/game. I know the rumors are that a new Donkey Kong movie is being made, but i think those rumors point at a 3D Mario/Donkey Kong game to coincide with the release of the movie. This could be the beginning of a new IP for Nintendo and one that would keep the continuity of whatever film project they are working on. 

I’ve got nothing to base this on, of course. But I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m not sure if it would be out in time for the movie, but a Holiday release would still be current enough to work. 



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deerox on 25 September 2022
Torpoleon said:

@siebensus4 I feel like early 2023 would be too close to Zelda for a 3D Mario. I'm of the opinion that the 3D Mario team (and maybe even the 2D Mario team) is working on a Donkey Kong game, and I could see that being the big Holiday 2023 title.

The 2D Mario team is busy working on Pikmin 4. 



Ashadelo on 25 September 2022

Watch next year F-zero and Starfox both hit. If they both hit and Sega helps with F-zero then Switch will clearly do 200M+



我是广州人

Torpoleon on 25 September 2022

@deerox Has that been confirmed? Makes sense at least.



Agente42 on 25 September 2022
siebensus4 said:

Do you guys think that we will see a Mario game next year, which will share content of the animated movie, which will be released April 7, 2023?

I can see a chance for a potential release in March 2023 or autumn, although there are no rumors yet. A new 3D Mario game would underline the strong first party support for next year, which should definitely push Switch sales up to 17-18M in 2023.

Have this rumor. 

https://gamerant.com/new-2d-mario-game-switch/

Nintendo needs to launch a brand new 2d Mario.



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Agente42 on 25 September 2022
super_etecoon said:
siebensus4 said:

Do you guys think that we will see a Mario game next year, which will share content of the animated movie, which will be released April 7, 2023?

I can see a chance for a potential release in March 2023 or autumn, although there are no rumors yet. A new 3D Mario game would underline the strong first party support for next year, which should definitely push Switch sales up to 17-18M in 2023.

I have my own theory regarding the Mario movie/game. I know the rumors are that a new Donkey Kong movie is being made, but i think those rumors point at a 3D Mario/Donkey Kong game to coincide with the release of the movie. This could be the beginning of a new IP for Nintendo and one that would keep the continuity of whatever film project they are working on. 

I’ve got nothing to base this on, of course. But I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m not sure if it would be out in time for the movie, but a Holiday release would still be current enough to work. 

system seller game needs to be a 2d Mario game. 



SanAndreasX on 25 September 2022

I’m guessing 16-17m.



archbrix on 25 September 2022
super_etecoon said:
siebensus4 said:

Do you guys think that we will see a Mario game next year, which will share content of the animated movie, which will be released April 7, 2023?

I can see a chance for a potential release in March 2023 or autumn, although there are no rumors yet. A new 3D Mario game would underline the strong first party support for next year, which should definitely push Switch sales up to 17-18M in 2023.

I have my own theory regarding the Mario movie/game. I know the rumors are that a new Donkey Kong movie is being made, but i think those rumors point at a 3D Mario/Donkey Kong game to coincide with the release of the movie. This could be the beginning of a new IP for Nintendo and one that would keep the continuity of whatever film project they are working on. 

I’ve got nothing to base this on, of course. But I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m not sure if it would be out in time for the movie, but a Holiday release would still be current enough to work. 

Agente42 said:

Have this rumor. 

https://gamerant.com/new-2d-mario-game-switch/

Nintendo needs to launch a brand new 2d Mario.

That would be funny if Zippo's rumors both turned out to be half true - but the new Donkey Kong game is actually the new 2D Mario game.  The rumor was that the new DK is 2D, abandoning the "Country" moniker and made by EPD.  What if it's really a cross-over game set to launch in March as the big Q4 game, releasing right before the theatrical movie (featuring both characters) in April.

I doubt it though.  I think Donkey Kong will release later - probably  a bit closer to the DK theme park opening, but we'll see.



znake on 26 September 2022

20 million is secured



siebensus4 on 30 December 2022

With Famitsu sales out there for the complete year 2022 – are there any new thoughts?

Switch saw a decline of 13 % in Japan 2022 compared to 2021. And 2021 had a decline of 6 % compared to 2020. If this speed continues, we should have a decline between 20 - 25 % in Japan 2023. Worldwide the decline could be a bit less.