I said 15-17m a few months ago but now I'm thinking it's more likely it does under 15m than above since it's gonna be about 20% down compared to 2021 for 2022 and I expect the drop to be higher this year so I'll revise to 13-15m. There's no way a price cut happens with the high inflation going on so sales should fall faster now with how old the Switch is.

Yeah a price cut isn't happening in the current economic climate, and while another revision is possible, I wouldn't count on it either.

The Switch is gonna be on cruise control from here on out and coast to its final destination on the strength of its existing momentum. Games like Zelda TOTK will keep it in the conversation, but with its 6th birthday coming up, it's days as an Olympic athlete are over and from now on it'll be leisurely jogging towards retirement. And after all it has accomplished, there's no shame in that.

I'm really curious what Nintendo will forecast for FY 2024, how many mil. they expect to ship in that year. For FY 2023 they initially forecasted 21 mil. and then lowered the number to 19 mil. because of semiconductor shortages. We will see what the actual numbers will be at the end of March. I wouldn't be surprised if they forecast 19 mil. for FY 2024 as the semiconductor shortages should be under control in this year and as they have some killer apps this year, the numbers could be high again.