I doesn't take much more than Fire Emlem, BOTW2 and Pikmin 4 for it to not be a decline. 

Early in this thread, I predicted 16M but im dropping it slightly down to 15M. The Switch is clearly beginning to approach saturation at this point. If Nintendo wants to maintain sales momentum it might be a good time to start price cutting the Switch and potentially release new iterations.

Recent hardware numbers have been below expectation so 15-16M for 2023 seems more probably now. Hopefully it will give Nintendo a kick in the ass to launch the succ.

I mean if selling 15 million consoles per year would be a kick in the ass for a new console, Microsoft would've release a new console every year by never reaching even 10

18-20 million

Yeah I really don't see a first party decline in 2023, unless Nintendo is gonna end up not giving us a bunch of stuff on the Switch. There's still DK and 2D Mario that seem like extremely obvious must haves for the Switch library before its over. Then there's the Metroid Prime remake, which given the amount of rumors its gotta be real. Then ya gotta assume Metroid Prime 4 is gonna finally hit next holiday. Ya gotta figure they'll finally release Advance Wars sometime this year too. Oh and then there's the Kirby Wii game remake or remaster or whatever that is coming next month.

Fire Emblem Engage, Zelda TotK, Pikmin 4, Kirby's Return to Dreamland, Advance Wars 1+2, Metroid Prime remake?, DK?, 2D Mario?, Metroid Prime 4?, and I wouldn't be surprised about one or two other games. That'd make a strong year for first party output.

2024 I don't expect much in the way of first party output, maybe just a couple games, since Switch 2 should be coming out sometime that year and Nintendo will be fully focused on getting launch games and so on ready for that. But 2023 should be Switch's last big wave of games.

Hope Nintendo releases Rhythm Heaven + Pokemon Let’s Go Silver & Gold  this 2023 

Switch 12million
New Switch 15million

Total sales of 27million.

@Oneeee-Chan!!! By new Switch do you mean a full blown successor or a Switch Pro? Either way, if either of those get released this year, I feel like 15 million would be too much on top of Switch doing 12 million this year from your prediction.

@znake I feel like a revisit to Johto (I'd prefer it to be considered a Crystal remake) would be more likely for 2024. This year seems more likely for SV DLC for the core series.

Please let me know next year if I am wrong in my prediction.