What people don't consider is that Nintendo had to correct the numbers down in 2021 and 2022 several millions because of chip-shortages. It is simply not realistic that the great majority of those who would have bought a Switch in 2021 or 2022 but couldn't, decided now to not buy a Switch at all. Realistically thinking, the majority of them will still buy a Switch (of course some from 2021 who couldn't buy one, bought one in 2022 already). So, if someone says, the Switch will "only" sell 15 mil. in 2023, the number they predict is in fact even smaller because of the people from 2021/22 who couldn't buy have to be taken account of. Therefore, there would only be around 7-8 mil. "new" people left who buy a Switch in 2023. I think this number is definitely too low.
Also, there are rumors that a new 2D-Mario is in development and maybe it will be the big holidays title in 2023. Even in the most pessimistic view, this would definitely boost the sales beyond 15 mil.
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