What are your expectations for Switch console sales next year? I mean the calendar year (1st January 2023 - 31st December 2023), not fiscal year.

OLED model and the Breath of the Wild successor should help to push sales or at least keep some interest in the console. Though, the second half of the year is pretty unclear at the moment.

Can we expect a price cut or new hardware (successor, new model) next year?

I expect another 20 - 30 % decline YoY, so I go with 15M.

This reminds me Nintendo hasn't had a proper Direct this year, only the 3rd party one and the one about Xenoblade 3. How many confirmed 2023 1st party releases for the Switch do we know?

There was a proper direct in Febrary

Just Breath of the Wild 2 although there's rumors that Advance Wars 1+2 will be delayed into 2023.

It will have been 4 years since Metroid Prime 4's development rebooted in January. So I wonder if there maaaaay be a possibility of a Holiday 2023 release? But that's about it that we know about. There's usually a September Direct. So I suspect that's when we'll get the next one. Since E3 was a no-go, that's probably why Nintendo wasn't very interested in having one in June.

I meant for E3, my bad. Most of the February announcements are for this year, though.

I voted for 17 mil, but it depends on a lot of factors.

Next year could be a good time for them to do a price-cut if they really wanted to keep up as strong sales as possible for the last few years, but despite that I honestly doubt that they will given the state of the global economy and such. They've already held off that price-cut so long since they didn't really need it, that at this point the Switch might simply not see any real price-cuts at all.

Another possible factor is whether they announce the sucessor during next year (for a release in the first half of 2024) but personally I doubt that. I don't think they would have announced 2 whole years of Mario Kart 8 DLC from early 2022 to late 2023 if the sucessor was planned for right after that. And they have of course many times stated that the Switch will have a longer lifecycle than usual. 8 years (2017-2025) seems plausible to me, though I doubt they would stretch it further than that.

If Switch has a baseline of 200k next year, this would still be on the level what PS4 was able to do most of the time and way over 3DS' 150k average. Just to put that in a perspective.

16 mi

2023 is the year I think Switch will have its first decline in first party output, although third parties can make up it

I guess 17M

18M. The decline has been slow and steady so far and I don't think that will change.