I voted for 17 mil, but it depends on a lot of factors.
Next year could be a good time for them to do a price-cut if they really wanted to keep up as strong sales as possible for the last few years, but despite that I honestly doubt that they will given the state of the global economy and such. They've already held off that price-cut so long since they didn't really need it, that at this point the Switch might simply not see any real price-cuts at all.
Another possible factor is whether they announce the sucessor during next year (for a release in the first half of 2024) but personally I doubt that. I don't think they would have announced 2 whole years of Mario Kart 8 DLC from early 2022 to late 2023 if the sucessor was planned for right after that. And they have of course many times stated that the Switch will have a longer lifecycle than usual. 8 years (2017-2025) seems plausible to me, though I doubt they would stretch it further than that.