Seems like most people are thinking around 17m for 2023 but what will determine if switch passes PS2 will be 2024, will switch have a relatively soft drop and decline from a hypothetical 17m to around 10m or will it do a DS and fall to 5m.

Please god no! The 8th gen Pro & X revisions made sense because they came out 3 and 4 years into their generation, to release a "Switch Pro" after 6 years would be nuts. This Pro ship has sailed, if Nintendo was going to do it they should have released it two years ago. Why not wait an extra year and have a true Successor with a generational leap in tech ready for 2024.

20+ million, cause why not go T-bone bold

I don't expect any revision. But if Nintendo wants to bring something new, it's probably just an OLED model with new colors and possibly more internal storage, that's it.

I could see Nintendo dropping the old model and lowering the price of the OLED to the original $300 price, but I don't expect much more than that.

With a price cut next Summer/Fall I see 18 million. Very possible there is no price cut though, but I doubt it would affect '23 sales by more than a million.

In 2024, if Switch 2 hits holiday '24, Switch does perhaps 10-11m (putting it at ~152m by end of 2024, inching its way past PS2 by end of life). If Switch 2 isn't until Spring 2025, so Switch gets the full holiday season, it probably does more like 14m putting it at 155m meaning it is passing PS2 by the time successor launches and ends up 160m+.

I really doubt there will be a price cut since they announced a price increase instead

It’s going to sell millions.

It is coming for 140 by end of 2023

12 million.

Still a rival to be reckoned with and a huge force, but well past its peak. 2024 will be under 10 million, I'm thinking. Maybe even under 9 million.