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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch sales expectations for 2023

 

Unit sales (million) of Switch in 2023?

11M or less 7 7.45%
 
12M 3 3.19%
 
13M 2 2.13%
 
14M 2 2.13%
 
15M 10 10.64%
 
16M 10 10.64%
 
17M 19 20.21%
 
18M 24 25.53%
 
19M 4 4.26%
 
20M or more 13 13.83%
 
Total:94

16-18mil. Voted for 17mil.
Not expecting a new model or new console announcement.



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The decline for this year will slow down in the second half. It won't have the OLED but even with that the sales were pretty disappointing in fall/holidays. Like some said, it will depend on how much they want to keep the sales going vs keeping the same price tag. I'm not worried on the first party output when you know XC3 was sat on for a year and so are other titles for this year, i doubt there will just be a hole next year. Many teams haven't released in a while.



UnderwaterFunktown said:

I voted for 17 mil, but it depends on a lot of factors.

Next year could be a good time for them to do a price-cut if they really wanted to keep up as strong sales as possible for the last few years, but despite that I honestly doubt that they will given the state of the global economy and such. They've already held off that price-cut so long since they didn't really need it, that at this point the Switch might simply not see any real price-cuts at all.

Another possible factor is whether they announce the sucessor during next year (for a release in the first half of 2024) but personally I doubt that. I don't think they would have announced 2 whole years of Mario Kart 8 DLC from early 2022 to late 2023 if the sucessor was planned for right after that. And they have of course many times stated that the Switch will have a longer lifecycle than usual. 8 years (2017-2025) seems plausible to me, though I doubt they would stretch it further than that.

If they keep the price the same, then we essentially will be getting a price cut due to inflation.

Which is the issue that I see holding any price cuts for any consoles back... Inflation, it's a world-wide issue at the moment.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

We don't totally know where Switch will end this year, although we probably have a good ball park. I voted 17m, although anything in the 15-19m range wouldn't surprise me.



I honestly think 15M is where the Switch would land.

Here is how I see the future:
2022: 19-21M ~ 122M total
2023: 14-16M ~ 137M total
2024: 9-11M ~ 147M total
Then 6-8M after for 154M total lifetime



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Assuming no price cut 15-17m. I could see higher if it continues doing really well in Europe next year.



mZuzek said:

Either way I feel like it will be the last big year for the Switch, and sales are going to decline faster afterward.

I actually thought this would already be the case in 2022. But I can't find any reasons why Nintendo should abandon Switch anytime soon.

If 2022 will be another 20M year, then we should see good first party support also next year and probably even 2024.



If we are going by calendar year shipments then so far switch has sold 14.86m, 17.41m, 20.21m, 27.39m and 23.67m. 2022 will be 21m to 22m and 2023 could realistically be 17m to 18m, i think it is clear that NSW will not die off quickly like previous Nintendo hardware has.

Calendar Year Shipments

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 26 July 2022

Let’s say 18M.



Pemalite said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

I voted for 17 mil, but it depends on a lot of factors.

Next year could be a good time for them to do a price-cut if they really wanted to keep up as strong sales as possible for the last few years, but despite that I honestly doubt that they will given the state of the global economy and such. They've already held off that price-cut so long since they didn't really need it, that at this point the Switch might simply not see any real price-cuts at all.

Another possible factor is whether they announce the sucessor during next year (for a release in the first half of 2024) but personally I doubt that. I don't think they would have announced 2 whole years of Mario Kart 8 DLC from early 2022 to late 2023 if the sucessor was planned for right after that. And they have of course many times stated that the Switch will have a longer lifecycle than usual. 8 years (2017-2025) seems plausible to me, though I doubt they would stretch it further than that.

If they keep the price the same, then we essentially will be getting a price cut due to inflation.

Which is the issue that I see holding any price cuts for any consoles back... Inflation, it's a world-wide issue at the moment.

In a way yeah, though unfortunatly it's not like most people really have more money to spend, so 300$ doesn't really feel like less now than a year ago. But it definitely does reduce the chance of an actual price-cut.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2022 predictions:

  • Switch - 24m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m