Yup, I also will disagree.

It's partially why the series S was created. To be a secondary/complimentary console.

One thing to take into account, is that Sony won't allow MS to thrive where PS can easily as well, and that's with hardware.

If XB Series S is really doing that well for MS and continues to, then you can bet Sony will do something similar next gen.

If for whatever reason next gen, Sony can't guarantee vastly increased chip production, they'll just copy the low end model.

The difference will end up much like Pro vs XB1X. Sony's low end launch model will be slightly weaker and $50-$100 cheaper.

Which will almost certainly mean a high end PS6, like the PS5, slightly weaker but same price as high end XB Series 2 X.

So something like a $250 PS6 S and a $500 PS6. (why not a $750 PS6 BC model with built in Cell BE while they're at it?)

Game Pass or not, a $250 next gen PS console vs a $300 next gen XB console will likely end up a big win for Sony.

That will probably mean the high end PS6 model won't shine like it could, but will allow the market share to shift considerably back to PS.

If that was the same market, I'd agree with you. But by next gen the market will fully be feeling the impact of Microsoft scooping up so many formerly multiplatform developers and either turning their games into exclusives or making it seem like a no brainer to play them on their devices due to how much you save with Gamepass. 

PS5 is still going to get a lot of games due to existing contracts. But PS6 isn't going to get Elder Scrolls 7, Starfield 2, Fallout 6, Doom 4, Call of Duty, Diablo 5, Overwatch 3, or the endless list of other games they would have gotten access to just a couple of years ago. PlayStation is internally bleeding, but because it isn't visible on the outside its fans are thinking they are healthy.  By next gen, there will be visible signs.

Most PS fans see it. It's why Sony was pushing internal growth prior and why more recently they're pushing larger (strategic) acquisitions.

Sony won't just let MS gobble up everything. If it's going to become a game of exclusives again, clearly this time, then Sony will buy what they can for now and make it exclusive, when need be, in kind, to keep you in their camp.

Then the next hope, or plan, seemingly anyway from Sony, would be that some their new in house IP, campaign, live service, etc, will please those existing, new or XB gamers, and bring them into the PS ecosystem. Why get XB for COD if PS now has it's own competitor and is considered worthy?

How many casual consumers really sit down and think long term as to how much Game Pass would save them in the long run? Most will see a cheaper PS6 S and will buy it, just like XB Series S. Game Pass is just an extra cheap bonus on top right now since there is no alternative.

If they start looking at services, Plus offers a ton of games and is cheaper in yearly form. How many casuals will really require day 1 to be a must when purchasing a console for a service in mind?

There's no longer sunk costs either. There's no reason not to jump from XB Series S to a PS6 S, because you don't own any games from Game Pass.

I think the importance of ”buying what my friends own” can’t be overstated. I wouldn’t be surprised of we’re looking at a 360 vs PS3 scenario in the US again, with Microsoft outselling Sony by 70%.

There is a limit of how long you can keep the fanbase waiting... and that time is running out fast.

It is pretty obvious that Sony has been unable to even keep manufacturing levels comparable to first months numbers for the past year. It is also not clear why MS was able to significantly increase manufacturing in the same period (don't argue with that "the XSX uses less chips" - That is complete nonsense).

It boils down to the question of "How much is each manufacturer willing to pay for additional parts?". That question is obviously slanted towards one company that spends insane amounts of money on their main pet while the other company has needed the cash from their pet to sort of bail out other divisions..

I'm waiting for Sony's fiscal quarter report to see what they are actually planning this year.

Xbox has had a better stock supply for the last 5months out of the last 16, I think people are jumping to pretty bold conclusions over what ultimately a very small window in time.

The Series S early adopters are entered/invested into the XBox ecosystem now.  When they want something more out of their Series system a few years down the line, they might just upgrade to a Series X which nets Microsoft an additional XBox Series sale.  The same way many PS4 owners doubled up with a PS4 Pro purchase just a few years later, and XBox One owners buying the One X.  Microsoft could not possibly be in a better situation than they are right now.  They are scooping up the non-graphics/framerate obsessed, they are scooping up the budget conscious, and they are scooping up the impatient who just don't want to wait for a PS5 or Series X to be available in their area.  Every single one from those group that they can double convert to a Series X down the line is gravy at that point.

I have no doubt that the PS5 will enjoy stronger sales in the 2nd half of its life than it is able to supply in its first half.  However, consumers are a fickle lot.  There are scores of people who would have bought a PS5, but not finding one available have already turned to an Series S purchase or a Series X if they could find one.  It's going to be very difficult for Sony to reclaim those would be potential sales at a later point in time.  Those sales are more than "delayed", they are more potentially "lost".  Look at how many people left the Sony ecosystem from the PS2 (157m) gen to the PS3 (87m).  PlayStation shed 70 million users from its ecosystem who didn't want to wait for the price of the PS3 to come down later in the gen.  That's the kind of situation that's playing out right now.  The increase in Series sales shows that Xbox is definitely scooping up users that PlayStation is losing due to supply issues.  It's going to be much easier for Microsoft to retain those customers for the remainder of the gen than it will be for Sony to reclaim later.

I think it’s highly plausible that Xbox outsells PS5 in North America this generation, but I do not think the sales splits we are seeing in Europe will be sustained once PS5 stock improves.


I don’t think Xbox will have a real shot to overtake Sony globally until 10th generation, which history would suggest would start in 2028 or 2029. Assuming the ABK deal goes through unscathed, I think Microsoft’s services offerings are going to be extremely difficult to compete with by 2028. When the yearly call of duty’s and games like ES6 start hitting gamepass, Xbox is going to recapture a lot of mindshare as a “cool” brand again. To an extent it already is.

I will be really interested to see the strategy both PlayStation and Xbox adopt for 10th gen. I know that supply chain issues will likely be resolved by then (one would hope anyway), but I think the 2 SKU strategy has proven so successful that both companies will adopt it next time as a “just in case” measure