Developers make games based on what will sell well, and what will sell well depends on hardware limitations in the market. The fact that Switch exists bodes well for Series S, just like Series S existence helps Switch, and Switch 2 will be even more of a partner with Series S because they will be close in power, I think. Having two popular devices/iterations close in power will only further encourage developers to make their games well optimized on those lower powered devices.

If anything, I'd be concerned with how limited games are going to be on more powerful hardware simply because it isn't selling as well as it would be on PS5/Series X if the lowered powered hardware sold worse.

I'm going to go ahead and call this generation for XBox over PS5. XBox is kicking ass in the Americas, and sales for the two systems are fairly close in Europe. The only place PS5 has a big lead over XBox is in Japan, and things do not bode well for PS5 long term in Japan. Most importantly, XBox sales are going really well and they haven't even released any of their big Bethesda or Activision exclusives yet. I just don't see PS5 having much hope in making a comeback.

I think the acquisitions Microsoft has made (companies that always made multi platform games suddenly being available for Gamepass for free and potentially as Microsoft exclusive games) vs. the ones Sony has made (companies that already were mainly or only making exclusives for PlayStation, still mostly selling for $60-70 each) already established, in my mind, that Xbox would overcome PlayStation globally next generation. But combine that with the shortage of supplies for PS5's compared to the collective Series lineup, and it's possible it could happen this generation.

Na, much too early to call it. PS5 is still around 5 million ahead at this point. The momentum at the mment is with Xbox but it's laregely due to stock. First party output is alos better this year on the Sony side.

Xbox is not selling all they can produce, we can easily spot Series S to buy

Meanwhile PS5 is selling everything it can, meaning their sales are only being delayed until it gets available 

With 40k gap every week it would take 2 and half years until Xbox finally outsell PS5. Unless we see a ramp in demand for Xbox for whatever reason I see very small chances for this prediction to happen, what is likely to happen is Xbox will saturate first and PS5 will have a stronger second half of its life 

At the current rate, sure.

I think it really depends on this year. If Sony can't increase production now while their first party is sending out the big guns they could be in some trouble when MS finally gets the snowball rolling and has the major 1st party title release (or more) every quarter starting 2023.

Phil is standing a top of the mountain, ready to kick the already sizeable snowball down he hill. Kaz needs to throw a yellow snowball in his face and kick his down first.

XS carving out a 40k lead over PS5 globally, and within 4k of it in Europe, Sony's strongest territory.
Series S stepping up to the plate in a big way.

Yep it was always gonna help but in these circumstances its perfect so I can easily see the idea being continued in gen 10. AI upscaling steadily improving will make it work even better then.

I say this as a Nintendo-only console gamer and a PC gamer:

People are confusing me by saying Sony will simply recover all these temporarily lost sales later in the cycle. If people are buying Xboxes, Switch's, or PCs because they can't find a PS5, most of them aren't going to then also buy a PS5 later. Most gamers don't own two devices. These are permanently lost sales for the entire generation, perhaps longer, and acting like they are just delayed sales is illogical, except for a small fraction that can afford multiple devices. And the bigger problem is, it is a snowball. The more Xboxes that sell, the more likely friends will be talked into buying an Xbox over a PS5 so they can play with their friends.

I know Europe is fragmented into a whole bunch of countries with different identities and languages, but in USA I think the friend effect will be especially true. People like jumping on bandwagons and rising momentum.

I have to disagree about PS5 sales being lost permanently.

Plenty will just be holding off and sticking to their PS4s as most games are still crossgen, and even if they do settle for a Series S in the short term, buying multiple consoles is not that uncommon and given Series S is the budget model, upgrading to a PS5 later may be seen as similar to how folks upgraded from a PS4 to a PS4 Pro last gen.

The console market has proven time and again that most customers are not brand loyal and so buying an Xbox now doesn't mean they won't get a PS5 years down the line once supply issues abate.