The biggest problem with your statement is that it's assuming just because PlayStation had a fantastic generation that it would be near impossible for Xbox to catch up in other regions. Although PlayStation is really starting to hamper down in Japan since they've become much more Western focused in recent years. But, if that was true, the 360 and PS3 generation wouldn't have been as close as it was compared to how disgustingly dominant the PS2 was compared to the original Xbox. And that's including the red ring of death debacle and Xbox still had the lead most of that generation. So you can't base what happened during the Xbone and PS4 generation and think that it will play out the same this generation.
Now that Xbox is going to start cranking out first party titles, a lot of rumors are showing 6-7 games in just 2023 alone, Xbox is finally starting to catch up when it comes to first party output, and if Sony is unable to shore up their shortages by this year, you may very well see those ratios decrease almost 1:1 within the next couple of years. Minus Japan, ain't no way Xbox can compete lol.
Xbox is playing the long game on this, and this generation is aiming to be a long one. This is all keeping in mind that Xbox isn't even focusing on selling as many consoles as possible as Sony or Nintendo are. I don't even plan on buying an Xbox this gen because I get the same experience on my PC.
So no one should be surprised within the next 3-4 years if Microsoft pulls ahead. Is it likely? I personally don't think so, but numbers will be much closer than many give Xbox credit for.
The PS3 generation was an outlier from Sony in many regards. It launched one year later, had a ridiculous price tag but still ended up bleeding money, difficult hardware to develop for, and it also coincided with Sony's fall from being the dominant brand in electronics. Ironically enough, the PS3 actually outsold the Xbox 360 launch aligned despite all of that, so you could argue the only reason the X360 had the lead was because of the staggered launch. Microsoft won't have that kind of advantage again.
Aside from Call of Duty, which is going to remain multiplatform for this generation at least, and Starfield, very few of Microsoft's first party games in the next couple of years are high profile, tentpole IP's that can match the mindshare of something like GOW or GT7, yet alone massive Marvel IP's like SpiderMan 2 or Wolverine. Games like Fable, TOW2, Hellblade 2, Everwild, Avowed, Gears 6, won't generate as much excitement as FF16, yet alone something like GOT2. They may have a slight lead in quantity, but with the amount of partnerships Sony has with independent studios, which includes developers from regions where the Xbox is non existent, as well as third party deals, I don't particularly see Microsoft drowning out Sony in releases.
This is also not considering the type of moves Sony will make in the future. What happens if Sony acquires a few publishers themselves, they get big multiplayer hits from Bungie, Deviation, and Naughty Dog, while releasing new IP's that become 20M+ sellers similar to Horizon & TLOU? The numbers will be closer, yes, but it says a lot about Xbox currently if it needs continued PS5 shortages to pull ahead, instead of surpassing it as a brand.