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PotentHerbs on 12 April 2022
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Dulfite said:

I say this as a Nintendo-only console gamer and a PC gamer:

People are confusing me by saying Sony will simply recover all these temporarily lost sales later in the cycle. If people are buying Xboxes, Switch's, or PCs because they can't find a PS5, most of them aren't going to then also buy a PS5 later. Most gamers don't own two devices. These are permanently lost sales for the entire generation, perhaps longer, and acting like they are just delayed sales is illogical, except for a small fraction that can afford multiple devices. And the bigger problem is, it is a snowball. The more Xboxes that sell, the more likely friends will be talked into buying an Xbox over a PS5 so they can play with their friends.

I know Europe is fragmented into a whole bunch of countries with different identities and languages, but in USA I think the friend effect will be especially true. People like jumping on bandwagons and rising momentum.

The problem with this line of thinking is that Xbox is still behind the PS5 in lifetime sales including in NA + UK. The snowball effect is still in the PS5's favor even with shortages. If the Series S can't even shift enough units for 100K weekly wins, despite their availability in every market and low price entry, I find it hard to believe it's turning the tide for the generation, with everything working in its favor at the moment. I do expect Xbox to win March NPD though, but if it fails to do that, it would be extremely underwhelming for the brand. 

What people need to realize is that Xbox never lost momentum in NA, even during the early days of the Xbox One, and the likelihood of Xbox winning NA in a landslide similar to the Xbox 360, is as likely as the PS5 outselling the PS2's lifetime in Japan. Xbox winning NA by 5M - 10M units will get cancelled out by whatever the PS5 sells in Japan. The issue is Xbox gaining traction in Europe and RoTW where PlayStation can legitimately outsell it 3:1, 5:1, even 10:1. Regions where Microsoft sells 100K - 200K units over the course of a generation are regions where Sony sells over 1M PS5's in the same time period. Xbox could sell 70M+ units this generation and still be behind 50M in unit sales.