Rol pretty much nailed it.

Switch's 2022 lineup is lightyears better than Wii's 2011 and there's no sign of the impending abandonment of the platform that killed Wii's momentum.

Switch Sports will be launching on a very healthy platform, and in an era when the hysterical stigma against games that dared to cater to people other than young males has died down a lot compared to the 7th gen. It's no longer the innovative novelty is was in 2006-2010, but Ring Fit showed you can still sell without that.

Nobody expects it to sell as well as the original, but there may yet be a substantial audience for this kind of content, contrary to the "Wii Sports was just a fad" narrative.

People didn't expect games like Ring Fit and such to sell as much as it has so I wouldn't put it pass Switch Sports to defy expectations.

"Motion controls aren't as popular."

Are you sure? It is a point that is often claimed, but I see no actual proof. The thing is, that motion control games were underdelivered after the Wii. So people who played Wii Sports probably didn't play any other console, as they weren't catered to. My boss bought actually a Wii and Wii Sports, and he did ask me once, why they did not do more of that. I will check in a few weeks if he is aware of the new Switch Sports and what he thinks about it.

Being aware is a problem, because you see, your list misses one disadvantage: advertisement. I don't know if Nintendo will step here, they still have time. But so far their only advertisement is a Nintendo Direct, which reaches the big fans already into the system. But Switch Sports is a game that mostly will appeal to people that do not have a Switch so far. So they need some way to advertise this that reaches these customers. TV ads would be the classic way.

With that said, I agree with your conclusion, it is a 10M+ seller, but it depends on some factors if it can reach more. I wouldn't compare it to Wii Sports though, Wii Sports Resort sold 33M, that should be the benchmark to gauge the success of this entry.

Nintendo constantly does TV ads, they definitely will make them for Switch Sports too.

We will see. If they nail advertising, this thing could become as big as Wii Sports resort and bring in at least 10 million new Switch owners that weren't interested so far (maybe in RingFit). but first they need to know it exists.

I just played a bit of Wii Sports again after many years of not touching it and boy the nostalgia kicked in instantly.
I never had Wii Sports Resort for some reason, so I just ordered it on Amazon for 30€. What a steal. Also ordered Mario Kart Wii for 50€. Never played that one either, but I have the accessory for the Wii remote.

Gonna be interesting.

Can't wait for Switch Sports.

I'll be very curious to see if this game contains the same amount of secret hidden depth as the case was with the original Wii Sports.
And if the visually simplistic style is as finely tuned. :9

Shouldn't we compare it to wii sports resort rather than the original, considering resort launched well into the wiis life. If we compare switch sports to resort it has a number of advantages, the biggest being price, I can't remember the price of resort but I imagine it was high due to the motion plus add on. Another advantage is the switch having a larger install base than the wii. Personally I don't think it will sell as much as resort but I think 20 million is very possible, particularly going by the success of ring fit.

I think it will sell at least 10+ million, but Ring Fit will have years of being on the market this game won't have. If Switch 2 comes out even as late as 2025, then this game only has 3 years (maybe a few months less or more) before Switch 2 comes out and many people stop buying Switch 1 software.

Wii software had the benefit of Wii U tanking and most consumers, especially casual, being completely unaware of its existence (because of how similar the name was) and continuing to assume Wii was the flagship device.

Also, now I'm curious, has anyone done technical analysis on the capabilities of motion controls in the joycons vs. Wii Motion Plus?

Obviously joy cons are better than Wii Motes, but Motion Plus is what I'd like a comparison on. Are joy cons more, less, or about the same in accurately to motion Plus?