Mnementh said:
Dulfite said:
This game has massive disadvantages compared to Wii Sports: It's launching halfway through the cycle. It will only have 3-4 years to sell unlike the 6-7 Wii Sports had. It isn't bundled for free with Switch like Wii Sports was with Wii. Anyone owning a lite probably won't buy it. Motion controls aren't as popular. It will probably sell 10+ million copies, but nowhere near Wii Sports, through no fault of its own. |
"Motion controls aren't as popular." Are you sure? It is a point that is often claimed, but I see no actual proof. The thing is, that motion control games were underdelivered after the Wii. So people who played Wii Sports probably didn't play any other console, as they weren't catered to. My boss bought actually a Wii and Wii Sports, and he did ask me once, why they did not do more of that. I will check in a few weeks if he is aware of the new Switch Sports and what he thinks about it. Being aware is a problem, because you see, your list misses one disadvantage: advertisement. I don't know if Nintendo will step here, they still have time. But so far their only advertisement is a Nintendo Direct, which reaches the big fans already into the system. But Switch Sports is a game that mostly will appeal to people that do not have a Switch so far. So they need some way to advertise this that reaches these customers. TV ads would be the classic way. With that said, I agree with your conclusion, it is a 10M+ seller, but it depends on some factors if it can reach more. I wouldn't compare it to Wii Sports though, Wii Sports Resort sold 33M, that should be the benchmark to gauge the success of this entry. |
I have some question as to how good Switch Sports will be, with my main problems/questions being: Golf coming very late might hurt its sales, will you be able to actually move your character in Tennis, will it have good training modes like Wii Sports, no boxing, not many sports like Resort had and doesn't seem likely more sports will be added after Golf.
Regardless, I agree it'll at least do 10 million. But, if what is there is great and it gets really good word of mouth I could see this thing blowing up to 30m+ Wii Sports Resort type numbers.
Because I could see it appealing to the Ring Fit crowd which looks like it'll eventually hit 20m, but Sports will have more general appeal than a specifically fitness game that costs more with the peripheral. So with really good word of mouth, Ring Fit numbers would be my absolute bottom estimate. Then on the high side I could see this appealing a lot to the Animal Crossing casual crowd. In 2020 I bet a ton of casual gamers and non-gamers bought a Switch for Animal Crossing, and I could see a lot of them picking up Switch Sports, but also Switch Sports will appeal to plenty of people like me who aren't into that super casual play of Animal Crossing but love more active casual gaming like Wii Sports. With AC clearly heading toward well over 40m it is reasonable to conclude Switch Sports could at least go over 30 million. Again this assumes it is really good and therefore gets great word of mouth.
Could definitely have a big launch, be a big holiday seller this year for kids, and be a strong evergreen game.
But on the low side if it turns out to be sort of a low effort product with a lack of great sports (like maybe bowling is the only great sport and Golf coming out half a year later is too little too late) then yeah just 10+ million would sound about right.