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Kakadu18 on 14 February 2022
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Mnementh said:
Dulfite said:

This game has massive disadvantages compared to Wii Sports:

It's launching halfway through the cycle. It will only have 3-4 years to sell unlike the 6-7 Wii Sports had.

It isn't bundled for free with Switch like Wii Sports was with Wii.

Anyone owning a lite probably won't buy it.

Motion controls aren't as popular.

It will probably sell 10+ million copies, but nowhere near Wii Sports, through no fault of its own.

"Motion controls aren't as popular."

Are you sure? It is a point that is often claimed, but I see no actual proof. The thing is, that motion control games were underdelivered after the Wii. So people who played Wii Sports probably didn't play any other console, as they weren't catered to. My boss bought actually a Wii and Wii Sports, and he did ask me once, why they did not do more of that. I will check in a few weeks if he is aware of the new Switch Sports and what he thinks about it.

Being aware is a problem, because you see, your list misses one disadvantage: advertisement. I don't know if Nintendo will step here, they still have time. But so far their only advertisement is a Nintendo Direct, which reaches the big fans already into the system. But Switch Sports is a game that mostly will appeal to people that do not have a Switch so far. So they need some way to advertise this that reaches these customers. TV ads would be the classic way.

With that said, I agree with your conclusion, it is a 10M+ seller, but it depends on some factors if it can reach more. I wouldn't compare it to Wii Sports though, Wii Sports Resort sold 33M, that should be the benchmark to gauge the success of this entry.

Nintendo constantly does TV ads, they definitely will make them for Switch Sports too.