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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ said:
trunkswd said:

The Platform Totals page and the weekly/monthly charts on the front page are North American data and doesn't include Latin America, while the Americas monthly articles (https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459048/ps5-best-seller-switch-tops-50m-lifetime-americas-hardware-estimates-for-october-2023/ / https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459050/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2023-americas-sales-comparison-charts-through-october/ ) include the data from Latin America.

Thanks for the clarification!

I figured that was the case. You do a wonderful job. Keep it up!

No problem! And thank you! I really appreciate when people say I do good work and to keep it up. 

When we switched reporting the data monthly this year I did contemplate making the report either North America or Americas (North+South America). But I decided to do all of Americas as it has more data. 

I know not everyone was a fan of going to reporting the data monthly, but it has meant far fewer adjustments and the initial estimates to be more accurate than in the past when we reported the figures weekly. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Shtinamin_ said:

That is a wonderful chart! Thank you!

May I ask why the chart is USA and not North America?

Cuz I get the data from here. And here the data is for USA, not North america.



Fight-the-Streets said:
Shtinamin_ said:

"We are still working on software for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025,"

He also stated that Nintendo would continue to focus on the Switch until the end of the current fiscal year ending March 2024. This lets me know that Nintendo will continue its focus on the Switch until the fiscal year ending March 2024 and the console will continue to see new games until March 31, 2025.

These came from VGC. https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendos-president-says-it-will-continue-to-support-switch-next-year/

But why does it talk about March 31, 2024? What will happen then? Is that a sign that the NG comes out on April 1st? Or is that a sign that all Nintendo Switch production will shut down? I have no idea.
But regarding March 31, 2025 there will be no more software support, no more new games after that date. At least that's how I read it and comprehend it as.

Does this mean Nintendo has complete trust in their next console that the transition will be ~5 months smooth, that they can kill the Switch in ~5 months and bring their consumers to the NG that fast? Very interesting.

xMetroid said:

So i was open to seeing the Switch become the best selling system but seeing how Nintendo isn't really aggressive even on it's last holiday season on the market... i feel like they don't care and are ready for the next thing. That will for sure cut the legs short on the Switch and i expect it to sell around 150-152 millions lifetime. 

At bold above:

    1. At corporate meetings or business interviews companies usually (and Japanese companies in specific and Nintendo even more so) want to focus on the here and now which is always the current fiscal year (which for Nintendo always ends at March 31). Therefore, it's only natural that Furukawa says that they are focused on the Switch as there is no other current Nintendo system.

    2. You interpret it wrongly. Again, asked about the Switch if it will still be supported in fiscal year 2025, Furukawa of course answers with a yes because 1. it's true and 2. anything else would shy away potential Switch buyers. Everything after that, i.e. starting from April 1, 2025 onwards is nothing Furukawa wants to share with investors, media and the public at this point as it's too early, irrespective if the Switch will still be supported or not. Again, Nintendo is a very conservative Japanese company that is very careful with the information they share and anything that's farther away than about 6 month (sometimes a bit more) will simply not be talked about.
    3. I wouldn't bet that 2023 is Switch's last holiday season without competing with Switch 2. Ultimately, all these trusted leaks are all rubbish as Nintendo always can make strategical changes. And even without changes, I wouldn't trust those leaks that Switch 2 definitely comes out in 2024. 2025 is still another possible candidate. Irrespective if Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025 there's still ample room for a price cut for the Switch.

If they didn't reduce the price on Black friday and for the upcoming holiday season, i doubt they will just randomly cut the price in June. And at this point, does a price cut unless it's really significant, hold that much power ? Not really. It's also not a move you do when you have a new system on the way, you will slow down production and will let the rest get off the shelves naturally. 

As for the rumours, Nate has made himself trustworthy with the amount of stuff he called right. He isn't just some random guy, he clearly works closely with Nintendo or with people close to Nintendo to know some of their scheduling. I would be VERY surprised if it doesn't come in fall next year. Even not based on him, Switch is on it's way out right now and you can tell by the sales that have been tracking down for several years and could dip around 10-12 millions next year, Nintendo usually don't wait till the system sells 4 millions to drop their next console. Also the games that are coming out, clearly studios have moved their work for the next console since last year and no other big game is on production for Switch since Tears. They won't position themselves by having B/C tiers games if the successor is 2 years away....

javi741 said:
xMetroid said:

We can't really compare the support Switch will have after the successor gets released to the 3DS after the Switch.

Nintendo was coming out of a tough generation and 3DS was their pillar to stay afloat. Switch was a big turnaround for Nintendo in terms of market position, how they consolidate their teams and games on 1 system. I think they were scared it wouldn't pick up in the first year and so they could have relied on the 3DS a bit for income. They were totally different system anyway so they could afford to still have it on the market cause it wouldn't overshadow or compete with the Switch in any category.

But with a Switch successor.... it will definitely just be a Switch with boosted specs, probably more features and more premium design i guess. It might be backward compatible too. I doubt they will keep Switch around as much as they did with the 3DS and will instead want people to move over to the new one. Another important point is Switch never got a price cut cause it could sell without it. It for SURE could be sold at like 200$ and still make a profit. But it's still at it's original price. Nintendo is always really careful on their pricing and they won't put the successor at more than 400/450$ imo. Maybe 2 models like 1 for 400 and the other for 500$... but i think 350-450 is the sweet spot. Now why would they keep supporting the Switch ? It can confuse the consumer and maybe make him buy the cheaper one. With the install base of the Switch, they will probably do some big cross gen games. If they wanted to keep the Switch, i think they would have reduced the price this fall to make it last for a little while with the successor. But keeping it at the current price... to me it just sounds like they will fade out the Switch and move on. They won't cut the price of the Switch a few months or when the successor releases so the consumer buys the new one. 

So i was open to seeing the Switch become the best selling system but seeing how Nintendo isn't really aggressive even on it's last holiday season on the market... i feel like they don't care and are ready for the next thing. That will for sure cut the legs short on the Switch and i expect it to sell around 150-152 millions lifetime. 

Nintendo's history has shown that you could never be too comfortable that a successor will be just as big of a success right out of the gate. Just look at the Wii to Wii U, im sure many people automatically assumed that the Wii U would be a success just cause it was the sequel to the highly popular Wii, but instead it became the worst selling Nintendo system ever. Even though I don't find it likely the Switch 2 fails like that, you never know and Nintendo learned the hard way with the Wii U that just cause its a sequel to a successful platform does not guarantee success. So I find it unlikely Nintendo is gonna drop the Switch 1 as soon as Switch 2 comes out just cause Nintendo thinks Switch 2 will be super successful, they would want to keep the Switch 1 going for several years just in case Switch 2 fails.

Also, Nintendo even before the Switch launched expected the system to sell 100 Million units, but that didn't stop them from supporting the 3DS cause they only have 1 platform now and would've wanted to keep the 3DS as their safety net in case anything goes wrong with Switch 1 cause you can never be too certain for success with your new system.

It makes sense for Nintendo to keep releasing Switch 1 games even after the Switch 2 launches since the Switch 1 will already have a 150M install base while Switch 2 will only have a few million out the gate. Releasing Switch 1 games will help fill the gap in software sales since Switch 2 would have too little of an install base initially for software sales to be as high and profitable to solely depend on it, Switch 1 games with its large install base will still bring in those software sales and if Switch 2 has backwards compatibility they'll serve as new Switch 2 games as well. Once Switch 2 gets a high and profitable enough install base then Nintendo can fully focus on making Switch 2 exclusive games. This is exactly what most developers are doing between the PS4/5 & Xbox One/Series X generations. I expect Nintendo to do the same cause it'll be insane to drop a 150M install base system very quickly after you just launched a successor. 

Even if they release games on it, there is a difference when the successor is on the market. The PS4 barely sold and wasn't really on the market even if it had all their major first party releases. They can utilize the Switch installbase without it selling still. 



trunkswd said:

But I decided to do all of Americas as it has more data. 

I know not everyone was a fan of going to reporting the data monthly, but it has meant far fewer adjustments and the initial estimates to be more accurate than in the past when we reported the figures weekly. 

I enjoy hearing about this process, also I like that you decided to go with the Americas. I think it was the right choice.
Personally, I've been keeping track of all your estimate articles, with focus on the Nintendo Switch (and recently over the past two years with Xbox Series and PS5). And your estimates have been almost spot on (+/- 80,000 on average once the official Nintendo Earnings are released, this last one in September was off by 44,023 units on the lower end [which is rather impressive]).

I do rather miss the weekly figures (I enjoyed seeing the numbers climb), and love reading Japan's weekly figures, but I also like seeing how much you enjoy it doing it so I'm fine with the monthly figures and enjoy seeing how much those numbers are (and appreciate you adding in the weekly reports in the same article). Im just here along for the ride counting the units and having fun. Thank you.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

XtremeBG said:
Shtinamin_ said:

That is a wonderful chart! Thank you!

May I ask why the chart is USA and not North America?

Cuz I get the data from here. And here the data is for USA, not North america.

Valid, (just curious) but may I ask why you decided to do USA? Like do you get special news access before the public?
Either way its super cool!
Is there a way to access the raw data?If not, that's okay.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Shtinamin_ said:

Valid, (just curious) but may I ask why you decided to do USA? Like do you get special news access before the public?
Either way its super cool!
Is there a way to access the raw data?If not, that's okay.

As I already answered, I get the data from this site. Here the detailed data for weeks and months is for USA instead of North America.

The raw data you can find here under tools, hardware by date.



xMetroid said:

If they didn't reduce the price on Black friday and for the upcoming holiday season, i doubt they will just randomly cut the price in June. And at this point, does a price cut unless it's really significant, hold that much power ? Not really. It's also not a move you do when you have a new system on the way, you will slow down production and will let the rest get off the shelves naturally. 

As for the rumours, Nate has made himself trustworthy with the amount of stuff he called right. He isn't just some random guy, he clearly works closely with Nintendo or with people close to Nintendo to know some of their scheduling. I would be VERY surprised if it doesn't come in fall next year. Even not based on him, Switch is on it's way out right now and you can tell by the sales that have been tracking down for several years and could dip around 10-12 millions next year, Nintendo usually don't wait till the system sells 4 millions to drop their next console. Also the games that are coming out, clearly studios have moved their work for the next console since last year and no other big game is on production for Switch since Tears. They won't position themselves by having B/C tiers games if the successor is 2 years away....

Even if they release games on it, there is a difference when the successor is on the market. The PS4 barely sold and wasn't really on the market even if it had all their major first party releases. They can utilize the Switch installbase without it selling still. 

Thank you, someone has some decent logic. Though I do think a price reduction on Switch, once NG comes out, will help the Switch get off the shelves to make room for the NG.

And I agree Nate is very trustworthy, just because they are rumors doesnt mean they are lies.

The Switch line up isnt that great next year, and is looking to be slim pickings out of the new content. Meaning, like you said, the studios are done with the Switch.
EPD1 consists of Big 3rd party developers: Monolith Soft, HAL Labs, GameFreak, and Intelligent Systems. They all made their games rather recently within the this year.
EPD2 consists of Small 3rd Part developers to make Mario-related spin-offs: Ubisoft, NDCube, Sega, Bandai Namco. The only developer to have made a game recently (this means within the last year) is Ubisoft with Mario Rabbids 2 DLC. Are we not gonna get a Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games from Sega? And Smash Bros releases once per console.
EPD3 is the Legend of Zelda.
EPD4 is the Experimental Group, games like: Nintendo Switch Sports, Brain Age, Game Builder Garage, 1-2 Switch (and the sequel). Maybe we could get Switch Sports DLC for Wuhu Island, but thats a stretch.
EPD5 has been Animal Crossing and Splatoon.
EPD6 is International Developers & small Japanese developers: Next Level Games, Retro Studios, Grezzo. One day we will get Metroid Prime 4.
EPD7 is Metroid, WarioWare, and Rhythm based games.
EPD8 is 3D Mario.
EPD9 is Mario Kart, and Nintendogs.
EPD10 is 2D Mario and Pikmin.
EPD11 is Smart Device Apps.

All of those mentioned have done the following: made a game within the year (2022-2023), made DLC within the year, or are no longer making games (EPD11 with the dissolving of all the apps like Fire Emblem, Dragalia, Mario Kart Tour). The only developers that could make a game for the Switch maybe would be Sega with Mario & Sonic, EPD4, Retro Studios with Metroid prime 4, a Rhythm Heaven, and Nintendogs.

The developers are looking to the future, the Switch is old-school now.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

XtremeBG said:

As I already answered, I get the data from this site. Here the detailed data for weeks and months is for USA instead of North America.

The raw data you can find here under tools, hardware by date.

Cool, that is a lot of work. Your dedication is inspirational. I've started using tools a couple weeks back to graph all the consoles (its slow going).
I was just wondering if you had special access to information, but then I remembered that most Americas articles contain information on the USA. Thanks!

How many units do you think will be sold in USA this Q3?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
xMetroid said:

If they didn't reduce the price on Black friday and for the upcoming holiday season, i doubt they will just randomly cut the price in June. And at this point, does a price cut unless it's really significant, hold that much power ? Not really. It's also not a move you do when you have a new system on the way, you will slow down production and will let the rest get off the shelves naturally. 

As for the rumours, Nate has made himself trustworthy with the amount of stuff he called right. He isn't just some random guy, he clearly works closely with Nintendo or with people close to Nintendo to know some of their scheduling. I would be VERY surprised if it doesn't come in fall next year. Even not based on him, Switch is on it's way out right now and you can tell by the sales that have been tracking down for several years and could dip around 10-12 millions next year, Nintendo usually don't wait till the system sells 4 millions to drop their next console. Also the games that are coming out, clearly studios have moved their work for the next console since last year and no other big game is on production for Switch since Tears. They won't position themselves by having B/C tiers games if the successor is 2 years away....

Even if they release games on it, there is a difference when the successor is on the market. The PS4 barely sold and wasn't really on the market even if it had all their major first party releases. They can utilize the Switch installbase without it selling still. 

Thank you, someone has some decent logic. Though I do think a price reduction on Switch, once NG comes out, will help the Switch get off the shelves to make room for the NG.

And I agree Nate is very trustworthy, just because they are rumors doesnt mean they are lies.

The Switch line up isnt that great next year, and is looking to be slim pickings out of the new content. Meaning, like you said, the studios are done with the Switch.
EPD1 consists of Big 3rd party developers: Monolith Soft, HAL Labs, GameFreak, and Intelligent Systems. They all made their games rather recently within the this year.
EPD2 consists of Small 3rd Part developers to make Mario-related spin-offs: Ubisoft, NDCube, Sega, Bandai Namco. The only developer to have made a game recently (this means within the last year) is Ubisoft with Mario Rabbids 2 DLC. Are we not gonna get a Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games from Sega? And Smash Bros releases once per console.
EPD3 is the Legend of Zelda.
EPD4 is the Experimental Group, games like: Nintendo Switch Sports, Brain Age, Game Builder Garage, 1-2 Switch (and the sequel). Maybe we could get Switch Sports DLC for Wuhu Island, but thats a stretch.
EPD5 has been Animal Crossing and Splatoon.
EPD6 is International Developers & small Japanese developers: Next Level Games, Retro Studios, Grezzo. One day we will get Metroid Prime 4.
EPD7 is Metroid, WarioWare, and Rhythm based games.
EPD8 is 3D Mario.
EPD9 is Mario Kart, and Nintendogs.
EPD10 is 2D Mario and Pikmin.
EPD11 is Smart Device Apps.

All of those mentioned have done the following: made a game within the year (2022-2023), made DLC within the year, or are no longer making games (EPD11 with the dissolving of all the apps like Fire Emblem, Dragalia, Mario Kart Tour). The only developers that could make a game for the Switch maybe would be Sega with Mario & Sonic, EPD4, Retro Studios with Metroid prime 4, a Rhythm Heaven, and Nintendogs.

The developers are looking to the future, the Switch is old-school now.

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point that developers are focusing on Switch 2 rather than Switch but I don’t think your point about the currently announced titles is relevant considering a few months ago people were saying the same thing.

Before the June Direct, Pikmin 4 was the only game scheduled for the second half of this year, then the Direct happened and Detective Pikachu, Mario Wonder, WarioWare & Mario RPG were all announced to release in the next few months.

This has been a trend the entire generation, people complain about Nintendo having nothing coming up then they a Direct and announce a bunch of stuff releasing in the next 6 months.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Shtinamin_ said:

Cool, that is a lot of work. Your dedication is inspirational. I've started using tools a couple weeks back to graph all the consoles (its slow going).
I was just wondering if you had special access to information, but then I remembered that most Americas articles contain information on the USA. Thanks!

How many units do you think will be sold in USA this Q3?

For the remaining 2 months (november and december) Switch will probably do between 1M and 1.5M in US. I think Switch'23 in US will finish short of it's 2017 (4.9M, it is now at 3M with October)