Fight-the-Streets said:
Shtinamin_ said:
"We are still working on software for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025,"
He also stated that Nintendo would continue to focus on the Switch until the end of the current fiscal year ending March 2024. This lets me know that Nintendo will continue its focus on the Switch until the fiscal year ending March 2024 and the console will continue to see new games until March 31, 2025.
These came from VGC. https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendos-president-says-it-will-continue-to-support-switch-next-year/
But why does it talk about March 31, 2024? What will happen then? Is that a sign that the NG comes out on April 1st? Or is that a sign that all Nintendo Switch production will shut down? I have no idea.
But regarding March 31, 2025 there will be no more software support, no more new games after that date. At least that's how I read it and comprehend it as.
Does this mean Nintendo has complete trust in their next console that the transition will be ~5 months smooth, that they can kill the Switch in ~5 months and bring their consumers to the NG that fast? Very interesting. |
xMetroid said:
So i was open to seeing the Switch become the best selling system but seeing how Nintendo isn't really aggressive even on it's last holiday season on the market... i feel like they don't care and are ready for the next thing. That will for sure cut the legs short on the Switch and i expect it to sell around 150-152 millions lifetime. |
At bold above: - At corporate meetings or business interviews companies usually (and Japanese companies in specific and Nintendo even more so) want to focus on the here and now which is always the current fiscal year (which for Nintendo always ends at March 31). Therefore, it's only natural that Furukawa says that they are focused on the Switch as there is no other current Nintendo system.
- You interpret it wrongly. Again, asked about the Switch if it will still be supported in fiscal year 2025, Furukawa of course answers with a yes because 1. it's true and 2. anything else would shy away potential Switch buyers. Everything after that, i.e. starting from April 1, 2025 onwards is nothing Furukawa wants to share with investors, media and the public at this point as it's too early, irrespective if the Switch will still be supported or not. Again, Nintendo is a very conservative Japanese company that is very careful with the information they share and anything that's farther away than about 6 month (sometimes a bit more) will simply not be talked about.
- I wouldn't bet that 2023 is Switch's last holiday season without competing with Switch 2. Ultimately, all these trusted leaks are all rubbish as Nintendo always can make strategical changes. And even without changes, I wouldn't trust those leaks that Switch 2 definitely comes out in 2024. 2025 is still another possible candidate. Irrespective if Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025 there's still ample room for a price cut for the Switch.
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If they didn't reduce the price on Black friday and for the upcoming holiday season, i doubt they will just randomly cut the price in June. And at this point, does a price cut unless it's really significant, hold that much power ? Not really. It's also not a move you do when you have a new system on the way, you will slow down production and will let the rest get off the shelves naturally.
As for the rumours, Nate has made himself trustworthy with the amount of stuff he called right. He isn't just some random guy, he clearly works closely with Nintendo or with people close to Nintendo to know some of their scheduling. I would be VERY surprised if it doesn't come in fall next year. Even not based on him, Switch is on it's way out right now and you can tell by the sales that have been tracking down for several years and could dip around 10-12 millions next year, Nintendo usually don't wait till the system sells 4 millions to drop their next console. Also the games that are coming out, clearly studios have moved their work for the next console since last year and no other big game is on production for Switch since Tears. They won't position themselves by having B/C tiers games if the successor is 2 years away....
javi741 said:
xMetroid said:
We can't really compare the support Switch will have after the successor gets released to the 3DS after the Switch.
Nintendo was coming out of a tough generation and 3DS was their pillar to stay afloat. Switch was a big turnaround for Nintendo in terms of market position, how they consolidate their teams and games on 1 system. I think they were scared it wouldn't pick up in the first year and so they could have relied on the 3DS a bit for income. They were totally different system anyway so they could afford to still have it on the market cause it wouldn't overshadow or compete with the Switch in any category.
But with a Switch successor.... it will definitely just be a Switch with boosted specs, probably more features and more premium design i guess. It might be backward compatible too. I doubt they will keep Switch around as much as they did with the 3DS and will instead want people to move over to the new one. Another important point is Switch never got a price cut cause it could sell without it. It for SURE could be sold at like 200$ and still make a profit. But it's still at it's original price. Nintendo is always really careful on their pricing and they won't put the successor at more than 400/450$ imo. Maybe 2 models like 1 for 400 and the other for 500$... but i think 350-450 is the sweet spot. Now why would they keep supporting the Switch ? It can confuse the consumer and maybe make him buy the cheaper one. With the install base of the Switch, they will probably do some big cross gen games. If they wanted to keep the Switch, i think they would have reduced the price this fall to make it last for a little while with the successor. But keeping it at the current price... to me it just sounds like they will fade out the Switch and move on. They won't cut the price of the Switch a few months or when the successor releases so the consumer buys the new one. So i was open to seeing the Switch become the best selling system but seeing how Nintendo isn't really aggressive even on it's last holiday season on the market... i feel like they don't care and are ready for the next thing. That will for sure cut the legs short on the Switch and i expect it to sell around 150-152 millions lifetime. |
Nintendo's history has shown that you could never be too comfortable that a successor will be just as big of a success right out of the gate. Just look at the Wii to Wii U, im sure many people automatically assumed that the Wii U would be a success just cause it was the sequel to the highly popular Wii, but instead it became the worst selling Nintendo system ever. Even though I don't find it likely the Switch 2 fails like that, you never know and Nintendo learned the hard way with the Wii U that just cause its a sequel to a successful platform does not guarantee success. So I find it unlikely Nintendo is gonna drop the Switch 1 as soon as Switch 2 comes out just cause Nintendo thinks Switch 2 will be super successful, they would want to keep the Switch 1 going for several years just in case Switch 2 fails. Also, Nintendo even before the Switch launched expected the system to sell 100 Million units, but that didn't stop them from supporting the 3DS cause they only have 1 platform now and would've wanted to keep the 3DS as their safety net in case anything goes wrong with Switch 1 cause you can never be too certain for success with your new system. It makes sense for Nintendo to keep releasing Switch 1 games even after the Switch 2 launches since the Switch 1 will already have a 150M install base while Switch 2 will only have a few million out the gate. Releasing Switch 1 games will help fill the gap in software sales since Switch 2 would have too little of an install base initially for software sales to be as high and profitable to solely depend on it, Switch 1 games with its large install base will still bring in those software sales and if Switch 2 has backwards compatibility they'll serve as new Switch 2 games as well. Once Switch 2 gets a high and profitable enough install base then Nintendo can fully focus on making Switch 2 exclusive games. This is exactly what most developers are doing between the PS4/5 & Xbox One/Series X generations. I expect Nintendo to do the same cause it'll be insane to drop a 150M install base system very quickly after you just launched a successor. |
Even if they release games on it, there is a difference when the successor is on the market. The PS4 barely sold and wasn't really on the market even if it had all their major first party releases. They can utilize the Switch installbase without it selling still.
