Switch is going better in this point in its life than many expected including me. Congrats!
With sales more than 200k every week this year, the system should reach around 140M by end of the year and around 150-155M by end of it's lifetime, given of course that the successor comes out next year which I think will majorly lower the sales.

Switch might do more in its 7th year than some people predicted for its whole lifetime.

160 here we go !
Mario elephant is coming

I overshot my prediction here by about 3m units it seems (By December 2022, the Switch had shipped 122.55m):

We already know that Prime 4, Princess Peach, Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon and Professor Layton are coming in 2024 and I believe that Nintendo is still sitting on a pretty big finished Switch game we don't know about yet (probably DK).  This continued support, along with Switch 2 not arriving until later in the year, will allow the system to stay above 10m for one final fiscal.  And some form of price reduction is inevitable to distance the price from its ~$399 successor.  After all, it would be the first - and only - official retail price drop the Switch has ever had in its life.

Now I'm expecting:

March 31st, 2024:  141-142m shipped (16-17m year)

March 31st, 2025:  ~153m shipped (11-12m year)

By this rationale, Switch should have enough left in the tank to cross 160m lifetime.

I've noticed that nobody has brought this up (from what I've seen anyway)
But imagine if at the end of this, as the Switch is winding down and it is actually getting close to that 159-160 million mark, Sony decides to pull the ultimate dick move and says final PS2 shipments are over 160 million. The last official number we have on PS2 sales (not shipped) from Sony is "More than 155.0 million as of March 31, 2012."

And worldwide production had officially ceased by January 4th, 2013.

The fact that 155 million number is sales and not shipped means it was closer to 160 million by March 2012 before it ended production. Somewhere within the 157-158 million range if I had to guess. That means it had another 8-9 months of shipments before Sony finally ceased production. It's not too farfetched to believe it could have tacted on another 1-2, maybe 3 million within that period. And assuming it's true, I could certainly see Sony being petty enough to do something like that. Especially after that "brand strength" shot they took at Nintendo a few months ago from out of nowhere.

Definitely wouldn't be surprised if Sony does that. Sony it feels like everytime they even reference Nintendo its always to take a jab at them and diminish their success. They called the Wii & DS as being babysitting toys not in the same league as PS, took jabs at the 3DS at times and refused to acknowledge the 3DS's success, in their patents they've always implied Nintendo when taking jabs. Sony does not seem to respect Nintendo and they'd definitely pull some shit to actually confirm the PS2's sales numbers just to not allow Nintendo to beat them.

I think the worst (best?) thing that could happen is if the Ns ended up in the 156-160m range and sony didn't update their official Ps2 numbers. The fanboy wars would never end about which console actually sold more.

Another thing I wonder is how the upcoming EU regulations about repairability will affect the Switch, which the Switch in it's current doesn't comply to. Will there be a redesign to comply with those rules or will Nintendo simply stop selling Switches in Europe?

Certainly if the numbers between the PS2, DS, and Switch get close enough to compare then we’ll start having to get out net revenue figures (of hardware alone), adjusted for inflation, of course. I hear by that standard Switch is already winning, but I’m not sure if I have seen actual figures.

Mario Wonder will be huge this Christmas. NSMBWii was like their biggest hit at the time and now that we haven't had a proper 2D Mario game in a while, i'm sure it will give a big boost. Switch will get to 140 millions by the end of the year and will probably sell at least 10-12 millions next year even if there is a successor. Nintendo probably won't mention it until April/May and even if leaks or info will circulate online, most people buying Switch right now are not gonna be aware of that.

That puts it at 150-152 by the launch of the successor if it does launch sept-nov 2024. It will need to sell 5-7 millions lifetime too surpass the PS2. I do think it will happen unless they drop the ball. But if they want to reach it, they can.