I overshot my prediction here by about 3m units it seems (By December 2022, the Switch had shipped 122.55m):
archbrix said: End of 2022: 125m shipped End of 2023: 143m shipped End of 2024: 155m shipped Lifetime: >164m |
We already know that Prime 4, Princess Peach, Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon and Professor Layton are coming in 2024 and I believe that Nintendo is still sitting on a pretty big finished Switch game we don't know about yet (probably DK). This continued support, along with Switch 2 not arriving until later in the year, will allow the system to stay above 10m for one final fiscal. And some form of price reduction is inevitable to distance the price from its ~$399 successor. After all, it would be the first - and only - official retail price drop the Switch has ever had in its life.
Now I'm expecting:
March 31st, 2024: 141-142m shipped (16-17m year)
March 31st, 2025: ~153m shipped (11-12m year)
By this rationale, Switch should have enough left in the tank to cross 160m lifetime.
