Specially since they know they can get away with it. How much profit do they make on the switch and the ps4 by now? 

At $300, must be quite a bit. And with people more than willing to fork over the cash, Sony and Nintendo at least seem to have decided that selling less systems at a higher price is preferable to selling more at a lower price.

Agreed, I could see OLED eventually replacing the original model and taking the $299 spot while Lite remains at $199. Have some value added bundles here and there and call it a day.

Yeah that sounds about right. Throw in a $300 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe bundle on Black Fridays and ride the original price point til the end.

I can see PS5 getting some Black Friday deals below $300, but not being permanently dropped below that threshold.

My cautious prediction for LT sales of Switch are as follow. I take into consideration that the current 5.3% decline compared to last year will roughly remain till end of calendar year/fiscal year. My baseline for 2020 is 28 mil. sell-through (77 mil. sell-trough LT):

2021: 26.5 mil (5.3% decline)
2022: 22.5 mil. (15% decline, big decline because of 2 extraordinary years before)
2023: 18.7 mil. (17% decline)
2024: 14.8 mil. (20% decline)
2025: 11.4 mil. (23% decline, Switch 2 comes out in March, however as decline was massive the year before, the decline stabalizes despite Switch 2)
2026: 5.7 mil. (50% decline)
2027: 2.85 mil. (50% decline)
Rest of life: 1 mil.

Total: 180.45 mil.

I didn't even consider price-cuts but I think they would just ad about 2-3 mil. (as attractive bundles during black fridays and holiday seasons are calculated in in my calculation above).

I like the effort put here, but I don't see Nintendo waiting 8 years for a follow-up system, unless there is some really serious refresh models down the line, and even then the jump would have to be very, very considerable. My Switch is showing it's age technologically speaking and, at this moment, I'm looking forward more to the Deck than to the next Switch interaction. Even if the idea that the Deck and the Switch do not compete is true, now there is an option on the market for guys like myself, who enjoy the portability but never liked the portable systems of yore, which were not only too small for my hands but also were way too toy-like for my taste. The Switch was practically the only thing on the market that checked those marks (apart from those many tries, like the Nvidia Shield - that I also have - and other smaller sized PCs). Now it is not anymore and I don't know if Nintendo has the luxury of waiting so long to be engaging clients with new tech.

What cliff?

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

He expects a 40% yoy drop. I'd call that a cliff compared to this years yoy performance. And I don't see it happening.

Yes, time will show you as completely wrong and at least we won't have to wait long to prove you wrong.

I can't figure out how to work the charts to show total sales for each year for a given console, how do I do that? Wanting to make a point.