Global Hardware August 8-14 - PS5 and Switch Sales Rise

[farlaff]

Fight-the-Streets said:

My cautious prediction for LT sales of Switch are as follow. I take into consideration that the current 5.3% decline compared to last year will roughly remain till end of calendar year/fiscal year. My baseline for 2020 is 28 mil. sell-through (77 mil. sell-trough LT):

2021: 26.5 mil (5.3% decline)
2022: 22.5 mil. (15% decline, big decline because of 2 extraordinary years before)
2023: 18.7 mil. (17% decline)
2024: 14.8 mil. (20% decline)
2025: 11.4 mil. (23% decline, Switch 2 comes out in March, however as decline was massive the year before, the decline stabalizes despite Switch 2)
2026: 5.7 mil. (50% decline)
2027: 2.85 mil. (50% decline)
Rest of life: 1 mil.

Total: 180.45 mil.

I didn't even consider price-cuts but I think they would just ad about 2-3 mil. (as attractive bundles during black fridays and holiday seasons are calculated in in my calculation above).

I like the effort put here, but I don't see Nintendo waiting 8 years for a follow-up system, unless there is some really serious refresh models down the line, and even then the jump would have to be very, very considerable. My Switch is showing it's age technologically speaking and, at this moment, I'm looking forward more to the Deck than to the next Switch interaction. Even if the idea that the Deck and the Switch do not compete is true, now there is an option on the market for guys like myself, who enjoy the portability but never liked the portable systems of yore, which were not only too small for my hands but also were way too toy-like for my taste. The Switch was practically the only thing on the market that checked those marks (apart from those many tries, like the Nvidia Shield - that I also have - and other smaller sized PCs). Now it is not anymore and I don't know if Nintendo has the luxury of waiting so long to be engaging clients with new tech.