My cautious prediction for LT sales of Switch are as follow. I take into consideration that the current 5.3% decline compared to last year will roughly remain till end of calendar year/fiscal year. My baseline for 2020 is 28 mil. sell-through (77 mil. sell-trough LT):
2021: 26.5 mil (5.3% decline)
2022: 22.5 mil. (15% decline, big decline because of 2 extraordinary years before)
2023: 18.7 mil. (17% decline)
2024: 14.8 mil. (20% decline)
2025: 11.4 mil. (23% decline, Switch 2 comes out in March, however as decline was massive the year before, the decline stabalizes despite Switch 2)
2026: 5.7 mil. (50% decline)
2027: 2.85 mil. (50% decline)
Rest of life: 1 mil.
Total: 180.45 mil.
I didn't even consider price-cuts but I think they would just ad about 2-3 mil. (as attractive bundles during black fridays and holiday seasons are calculated in in my calculation above).
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