Cliff can't happen in a month. I say it is a cliff because I expect 15M for the year. This is a cliff from 25M this year.

Also with your logic no console have ever experienced a cliff because no console have dropped it's sales on a matter of a month.

Also .. you spoke of great sales.. 15M so late in a system lifecycle is still great sales.

I said the decline will begin in january however in the course of the year I expect it to reach 150-200k weekly levels before the holiday period of 2022.

Also PS5/XBS matter, I already explained why in some of my previous posts.

And also the rise and the fall in sales can't happen instantly. When Switch or other system launched, the effect of it for the other systems won't be instant.

Most of the times some period of 2-3 years is needed. As you saw with the PS4. Part of it's lower sales in 2020 were because of Switch being a more and more viable and relevant option starting in 2019 with the lite model, and the many new games released or it by that point (and 2020). Also the fact that it was three years on the market meant that a lot more people were aware of the system, in comparison to 2017 or 2018.

This example stays true for all systems. (Well at least good selling ones, systems like wii u or vita we don't need to even talk about.. )

But there is no point in arguing now. I am not changing my position and probably you are not too. It's better just to wait and see.

I said Xbox One was already selling less week on week than the 360 at this point and you can chek it out. It's not my problem if you don't know how to read:

Week ending August 19, 2006 (Xbox 360): 73k

Week ending August 23, 2014 (Xbox One): 54k (LESS THAN THE 360 WEEK ON WEEK)

Week ending August 14, 2021 (Xbox Series X/S): 123K

Then X1 had a very low advantage over the 360 for around a year and a half because of the price cut and then it started selling less than te 360 again. There is no reason to think Series is going to start selling less week on week than the 360 until at least 2024.

Edit: for the record, this is my current prediction:

Xbox 360 vs Xbox Series X/S

Year 1: 1.1M vs 3M
Year 2: 6.8M vs 10.5M
Year 3: 7.9M vs 12.5M
Year 4: 11.16M vs 13M
Year 5: 10.36M vs 12.5M
Year 6: 13.5M vs 10.5M
Year 7: 13.9M vs 9M
Year 8: 10.6M vs 8M
Year 9: 6.2M vs 5M
Year 10: 2.5M vs 3.2M
Year 11: 988k vs 1.4M

I expect Series to sell a bit more than the 360 (88M)

I am not denying the Switch software lineup that is coming. It just won't help much at this point because of the saturation point .. By 2022 the system will be over 100M
With more than 100M units sold even the best games even many of them won't push so much hardware as they would earlier in the lifecycle. They can help a little, It can have some 2 weeks boost. And that's it.
Also for the PS4 not only me but many other people too argued for it's long legs. And the reason is because we all assumed Sony will do the right and the normal thing that normally manufacturers do when one successful system is about to enter it's last years. To drop the price. They didn't. This stopped PS4 .. not some emerging markets.
Emerging markets may have been a factor if we talked about PS2 sales level. My prediction was that the PS4 can reach 130 or 140M not almost 160M.
It's a combination of things. The one factor brings some 10-20M more the other some 10-20M more, the other some maybe some 5-10M.
So the factor of emerging markets is not relevant here.
Also the other thing that stopped the PS4, outside of it's price was that sony because of the pandemic didn't produced enough systems for the market in 2020.
And this year some people says it's the same as well. I don't have data to be sure of however it is not impossible for the sales to be like they are because of not sending enough stock to all markets ..
About the previous comment .. No I am not damage control anything. I just don't think Switch will reach number above 140M.
And this is just a prediction. Everything is possible. Also my opinion is not based on anything connected to PS4. I don't know why it have those two to be connected.
I haven't told even once that Switch won't outsell the PS4. But my prediction falls there that it won't be by more than 15-20M. Which is not small difference.
You are saying that, not me. 20M is very decent difference between the two.

I am very curious how and what you will be saying next year when the cliff hits. Really.

And please don't compare me with those people that have really damaged control the system from day one, saying that the cliff is coming. I am not one from them

I have never ever told anything about cliff for the system before this year. This year I just made a prediction about next year based on a few things. I haven't said or thought that switch would be weak selling console, or it will have the cliff in 2019 or 2020 or 2021. Or even in the start of it's life. 130-140M is still very respectable number and it is showing that the system is very successful. No denying that. I just don't believe it will hit and pass 150M. And this is in no shape or form connected to any other console sales performance or whatever. This is just my opinion going forward from now on, not from launch or from 2018/19/20.

I am not denying the Switch software lineup that is coming. It just won't help much at this point because of the saturation point .. By 2022 the system will be over 100M
With more than 100M units sold even the best games even many of them won't push so much hardware as they would earlier in the lifecycle. They can help a little, It can have some 2 weeks boost. And that's it.
Also for the PS4 not only me but many other people too argued for it's long legs. And the reason is because we all assumed Sony will do the right and the normal thing that normally manufacturers do when one successful system is about to enter it's last years. To drop the price. They didn't. This stopped PS4 .. not some emerging markets.
Emerging markets may have been a factor if we talked about PS2 sales level. My prediction was that the PS4 can reach 130 or 140M not almost 160M.
It's a combination of things. The one factor brings some 10-20M more the other some 10-20M more, the other some maybe some 5-10M.
So the factor of emerging markets is not relevant here.
Also the other thing that stopped the PS4, outside of it's price was that sony because of the pandemic didn't produced enough systems for the market in 2020.
And this year some people says it's the same as well. I don't have data to be sure of however it is not impossible for the sales to be like they are because of not sending enough stock to all markets ..
About the previous comment .. No I am not damage control anything. I just don't think Switch will reach number above 140M.
And this is just a prediction. Everything is possible. Also my opinion is not based on anything connected to PS4. I don't know why it have those two to be connected.
I haven't told even once that Switch won't outsell the PS4. But my prediction falls there that it won't be by more than 15-20M. Which is not small difference.
You are saying that, not me. 20M is very decent difference between the two.

I am very curious how and what you will be saying next year when the cliff hits. Really.

And please don't compare me with those people that have really damaged control the system from day one, saying that the cliff is coming. I am not one from them

I have never ever told anything about cliff for the system before this year. This year I just made a prediction about next year based on a few things. I haven't said or thought that switch would be weak selling console, or it will have the cliff in 2019 or 2020 or 2021. Or even in the start of it's life. 130-140M is still very respectable number and it is showing that the system is very successful. No denying that. I just don't believe it will hit and pass 150M. And this is in no shape or form connected to any other console sales performance or whatever. This is just my opinion going forward from now on, not from launch or from 2018/19/20.

Even with growth it can't answer for more than 10-20M.

And again it's not only me. Many many people though the PS4 will do more. Because this was the natural progress going forward. Sony didn't do price cut nor they sent enough stock. However why we are talking for the PS4 here ?

I am not giving up on my prediction for the switch for 2022. That's it. Case closed.

You still don't get it.

Emerging markets growth isn't referring to overall numbers climbing, it's about the sales curve being different. The economies of those regions grew from the early 00s to the mid 10s so they were able to get PS4 much earlier than they got PS2. This is why PS2 had such long legs while PS4 did not.

Let's look at the overall sales per region for PS/XB consoles

North America

PS2+XB-69.42m

PS4+XBO-70.64m

Europe

PS2+XB-62.45m

PS4+XBO-60.95m

Japan

PS2+XB-23.71m

PS4-XBO-9.50m

Rest of the World

PS2+XB-26.75m

PS4+XBO-25.60m

The fact that PS4+XBO was at or near the level of PS2+XB in each region (excluding Japan) should have been a clear indication that PS4 was not going to have strong legs and it's sales curve was different than PS2.

The reason we are talking about PS4 is that I'm pointing out how a flaw in your analysis led you to come to a false conclusion (not factoring in economic growth in emerging markets over the last ~20 years) and that you are doing the same thing with your Switch prediction (giving PS/XB too much credit when it comes to Nintendo sales).

@zorg1000 so you are saying that even if Sony did a price cut to let's say 199$ PS4 couldn't sell another 10 or 15M more ?