This is the problem, that you are 100% in the future. Where everything is possible and no one should be sure 100% about anything.

Yep! Go ahead! And thanks.. you will need it .. oops switch will need it for next year.

As I already said on one of my other posts, the exact prediction was between 15 to 18M for this year, yes. With the condition of PS5 and XBSX both having fixed their problems with the stock, (which they haven't..) which I and many other thought that in this point of the last year that will be fixed for 2022.

And it has not only haven't been fixed but particularly for the PS5 it has been even worse. So with these circumstances, I can see Switch making between 18 and 20M for this calendar year.

As I have written in the quoted post, Switch got the luck in the form of stock issues for both XBOX and PS5, PS5 in bigger form. There are some portion of the sales that Switch have received because of these shortages and unavailability of the other 2 consoles. Yes Switch may also experience somewhere shortages but are nowhere near the shortages that are XBOX Series X and PS5 experiencing.

Also.. don't be so sure. It still isn't impossible for Switch to finish under 18M for this year. (although I can give more chance of doing over 18M)

Switch is declining every single week since the start of this year, and now before the adjustments that will follow (that will lower it's numbers further) VGChartz data is that Switch has sold 5M by end of april. This is almost 30% down year on year, when earlier in the year was 10, then 20%. So as I said with each passing month and week Switch is declining weekly and this percentage will grow since 2021 was doing between 300 and 400k weekly for the whole year. (The weakest point was the month before the OLED where it dropped to 270-280K for a few weeks) I expect the Switch to fall to around 250K weekly for the most part of this year and of course boost in the holiday season. But still I am not counting out the under 18M scenario for this year. However If I have to bet, with the PS5 very weak numbers and big shortages problems and XBOX somewhat better but still not full stock (specially for the X model) issue I would bet that Switch can finish in the 18-20M range for this year.

Also .. why even mentiong the games ? At this point in life and this numbers that Switch have sold till now even the biggest surprize of a game can't make a big boost in the sales of the Switch. So no matter what games comes out for it now or in the future they can only slightly boost 2-3 weekly numbers a little and that's it. The saturation point is here. Also.. What exactly lies ahead for the Switch ? What ? 1 more full year on the market (as Nintendo primary console) or 2 at best and that's it. Even with this, in the moment of announcing the new successor Switch will immediately begin to fall in sales further. As it was with pretty much every other system in the past when their successor get announced. The games at this point can't move Switch sales. Pricecut won't happen because Switch already did get some form of a pricecut in the face of Switch Lite in 2019. I see how everyone here says "switch even hasn't receive pricecut at this point". It has. Just Nintendo made it in a smart way. With introducing of cheaper model. Just like in other industries there is cheaper models that are for peoples who can't afford the normal one here the Switch Lite is this affordable option. And whoever until now wanted to have a switch but didn't have the money for the normal one, they all have bought the Lite one. So no there is no point in doing another price cut and Nintendo won't do it because they already have cheap option at 199$. This is the pricecut Switch got. In 2019. Just not in it's pure form of slashing the original model's price, but introducing new cheaper to make one for 100$ less.

There is of course the possibility of doing second one however that one will most likely be when announcing or even launching it's successor, just to soften the blow on the sales of the Switch. Which at that point it will have little to no impact, maybe some hundreds of units more but no more than 1M in total at max. I bet Switch will finish at something around 140M lifetime.

As I already said on one of my other posts, the exact prediction was between 15 to 18M for this year, yes. With the condition of PS5 and XBSX both having fixed their problems with the stock, (which they haven't..) which I and many other thought that in this point of the last year that will be fixed for 2022.

And it has not only haven't been fixed but particularly for the PS5 it has been even worse. So with these circumstances, I can see Switch making between 18 and 20M for this calendar year.

As I have written in the quoted post, Switch got the luck in the form of stock issues for both XBOX and PS5, PS5 in bigger form. There are some portion of the sales that Switch have received because of these shortages and unavailability of the other 2 consoles. Yes Switch may also experience somewhere shortages but are nowhere near the shortages that are XBOX Series X and PS5 experiencing.

Also.. don't be so sure. It still isn't impossible for Switch to finish under 18M for this year. (although I can give more chance of doing over 18M)

Switch is declining every single week since the start of this year, and now before the adjustments that will follow (that will lower it's numbers further) VGChartz data is that Switch has sold 5M by end of april. This is almost 30% down year on year, when earlier in the year was 10, then 20%. So as I said with each passing month and week Switch is declining weekly and this percentage will grow since 2021 was doing between 300 and 400k weekly for the whole year. (The weakest point was the month before the OLED where it dropped to 270-280K for a few weeks) I expect the Switch to fall to around 250K weekly for the most part of this year and of course boost in the holiday season. But still I am not counting out the under 18M scenario for this year. However If I have to bet, with the PS5 very weak numbers and big shortages problems and XBOX somewhat better but still not full stock (specially for the X model) issue I would bet that Switch can finish in the 18-20M range for this year.

Also .. why even mentiong the games ? At this point in life and this numbers that Switch have sold till now even the biggest surprize of a game can't make a big boost in the sales of the Switch. So no matter what games comes out for it now or in the future they can only slightly boost 2-3 weekly numbers a little and that's it. The saturation point is here. Also.. What exactly lies ahead for the Switch ? What ? 1 more full year on the market (as Nintendo primary console) or 2 at best and that's it. Even with this, in the moment of announcing the new successor Switch will immediately begin to fall in sales further. As it was with pretty much every other system in the past when their successor get announced. The games at this point can't move Switch sales. Pricecut won't happen because Switch already did get some form of a pricecut in the face of Switch Lite in 2019. I see how everyone here says "switch even hasn't receive pricecut at this point". It has. Just Nintendo made it in a smart way. With introducing of cheaper model. Just like in other industries there is cheaper models that are for peoples who can't afford the normal one here the Switch Lite is this affordable option. And whoever until now wanted to have a switch but didn't have the money for the normal one, they all have bought the Lite one. So no there is no point in doing another price cut and Nintendo won't do it because they already have cheap option at 199$. This is the pricecut Switch got. In 2019. Just not in it's pure form of slashing the original model's price, but introducing new cheaper to make one for 100$ less.

There is of course the possibility of doing second one however that one will most likely be when announcing or even launching it's successor, just to soften the blow on the sales of the Switch. Which at that point it will have little to no impact, maybe some hundreds of units more but no more than 1M in total at max. I bet Switch will finish at something around 140M lifetime.

My prediction about Switch was valid only if the stock issues for the other two consoles are gone.

My prediction about stock situation for PS5 and XBSX was wrong.

My prediction about Switch was valid only if the stock issues for the other two consoles are gone.

I haven't done a prediction last year about Switch for this year if the stock issues are still present.

Besides, you can't talk about prediction if its wrong or right when the year is not finished .. we haven't passed it's half point yet ..