Global Hardware August 8-14 - PS5 and Switch Sales Rise

[zorg1000]

yo33331 said:

zorg1000 said:

What you are describing here is a natural sales curve, not a cliff. NSW going down in its 6th year is expected. PS5/XBS going up in their 2nd year is expected.

PS5/XBS are entirely irrelevant to NSW sales and vice versa. NSW launched with great sales during the PS4/XBO peak. PS5/XBS launched to great sales in the NSW peak. They do not impact each other.

Once you erase PS5/XBS from your analysis than you will come to a more realistic prediction for NSW.

Cliff can't happen in a month. I say it is a cliff because I expect 15M for the year. This is a cliff from 25M this year.

Also with your logic no console have ever experienced a cliff because no console have dropped it's sales on a matter of a month.

Also .. you spoke of great sales.. 15M so late in a system lifecycle is still great sales.

I said the decline will begin in january however in the course of the year I expect it to reach 150-200k weekly levels before the holiday period of 2022.

Also PS5/XBS matter, I already explained why in some of my previous posts.

And also the rise and the fall in sales can't happen instantly. When Switch or other system launched, the effect of it for the other systems won't be instant.

Most of the times some period of 2-3 years is needed. As you saw with the PS4. Part of it's lower sales in 2020 were because of Switch being a more and more viable and relevant option starting in 2019 with the lite model, and the many new games released or it by that point (and 2020). Also the fact that it was three years on the market meant that a lot more people were aware of the system, in comparison to 2017 or 2018.

This example stays true for all systems. (Well at least good selling ones, systems like wii u or vita we don't need to even talk about.. )

But there is no point in arguing now. I am not changing my position and probably you are not too. It's better just to wait and see.

Correlation=/=causation

This is the main error you are making. You see the PS4 decline & NSW incline happening simultaneously and assume they are related.

You are the person who was arguing hard last year about how strong PS4 legs would be. You could not grasp the concept that emerging markets that carried post-successor sales for PS1/PS2 had bought PS4 much earlier in its life and this would be a huge factor leading PS4 to have a sales curve similar to PS3.

You are making this mistake again, people are pointing out specific flaws in your prediction causing you to reach a false conclusion and instead of listening and adjusting, you are doubling down like you did with your PS4 prediction last year.

Seriously, ignore PS5/XBS, they play almost no part in NSW sales. Look at things like Nintendo's 1st/2nd party lineup, the games currently announced along with ones you expect to see, and whether or not you think price cuts, revisions, bundles will appear.

Your prediction should be based on things like this, not if PS5/XBS get more stock.