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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

curl-6 on 12 July 2021
yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

The statement of 50-50 is from later, in 2018. Do you have any data at all to support your claims that its almost entirely bought as a handheld now?

And you're shifting the goalposts, it may not compete graphically with PS4/Xbone but you only have to look to games like Crysis Remastered, Metro Redux, or Alien Isolation to see the Switch version significantly outperforming the PS3/360 versions.

There were also shitty ports that were worse on the switch than they were on PS3, or some remastered games where the switch version wasn't really better than the 360/ps3 one.

Okay, to the original topic, as I already said, it is pointless to argue for the sales, we will see next year. I am standing behind my words.

If I am wrong I am wrong. But either way it won't do much after 140M.

The shitty ports don't erase the capabilities demonstrated by the better ones though. I own both a PS3 and 360 and have played them both extensively and the Switch is a noticeable step up from them when it comes to the games that really leverage its hardware.



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curl-6 on 12 July 2021
yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

The shitty ports don't erase the capabilities demonstrated by the better ones though. I own both a PS3 and 360 and have played them both extensively and the Switch is a noticeable step up from them when it comes to the games that really leverage its hardware.

I also have both, and have player milions of hours on them and now the games to the bones.

Switch I've played a few times but also watched many many videos on games on it and also analysis on digital foundry and I am not impressed as jump from PS3/360 in terms of performance or graphics, it's very close, and even in some situations worse.

You may not be impressed and that's fair enough, but it is not "very close" really; Switch has over 6 times as much useable RAM and GPU technology a decade more modern. Obviously as a device that has to function as a portable it cannot offer a generational jump in raw power but the Switch's performance as a console is still significantly ahead of PS3 and 360.

Take Crysis. Switch compared to PS3/360 has a higher resolution, higher framerate, more foliage, better effects work for water, motion blur, and depth of field, plus the addition of SVOGI which is a form of ray traced global illumination. The gap over PS3/360 is quite clear.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 12 July 2021

AJNShelton on 12 July 2021
yo33331 said:

And in time of phones (with normal and beefed models) and Pro consoles many people (casual gamers and not so hardcore) just take the full package model because on most of the tech the lite models are missing more than just battery and screen and the mass buyer or casual gamer are not exactly sure what they are missing with the lite model. Therefore most of the people go to the normal switch naturally. 

Well according to this logic, the PS4 Pro would be the best selling PS4 since launch, but it isn't, the PS4 Pro + Slim sales were like 1/4 or even 1/5 for the PS4 Pro.

But yes, people are more willing to buy the full PS5 rather than the PS5 DE, and the Series X rather than the Series S



Kakadu18 on 12 July 2021
yo33331 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Bold: show me where you got that from, because that is bullshit. People buy the Switch for Nintendo games and/or because it's hybrid, not only because it's handheld.

You pull random numbers out of thin air and then call what others say bullshit.

I can't take you serious anymore.

Out of logic. Who will buy PS3 graphics system to play it on it's big 4K 60 inch TV in home when they have PS4 or PS5 in home ? With 4K graphics.

Well I am not saying literally no one. There will be some hardcore nintendo fans that may buy it for home use. That's why I said most of the people buy it for handheld primary. Some small percentage may use it as a home console.

And the bullshit is " special console " not anything other. What gives whoever it is the power to name something special ?

Okay I name all the consoles that passed 100M special and what ? or one of a kind. Those are very subjective things that everyone can call everything they want.

Bold: alot of people apparently. All statistics we have, that other people here already showed you point to many people are playing docked a significant part of the time.

'Who would do what I wouldn't' is your argument. You're very clever.

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 12 July 2021

noshten on 12 July 2021

Ring Fit & Splatoon 2 aren't even fully viable in handheld mode, I can't imagine that many people that bought those two games who play them regularly undocked.



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Otter on 12 July 2021
yo33331 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Bold: show me where you got that from, because that is bullshit. People buy the Switch for Nintendo games and/or because it's hybrid, not only because it's handheld.

You pull random numbers out of thin air and then call what others say bullshit.

I can't take you serious anymore.

Out of logic. Who will buy PS3 graphics system to play it on it's big 4K 60 inch TV in home when they have PS4 or PS5 in home ? With 4K graphics.

Well I am not saying literally no one. There will be some hardcore nintendo fans that may buy it for home use. That's why I said most of the people buy it for handheld primary. Some small percentage may use it as a home console.

And the bullshit is " special console " not anything other. What gives whoever it is the power to name something special ?

Okay I name all the consoles that passed 100M special and what ? or one of a kind. Those are very subjective things that everyone can call everything they want.

Does PS5 have Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Pokemon, Breath of the Wild?

Anecdotally I know way more people who use the Switch as fun casual gaming device with friends, than those who use it primarily as a portable. Nintendo also puts a heavy emphasis on this in their marketing. Trying to deduce the proportion of gamers who buy it for portability based on its spec doesn't really get you anywhere. In real life no cares that Mario Kart 8 is not in 4k.  

They already said back in 2017 handheld/console split time was like 50/50 and this likely varies wildly per game. The inclusion of Switch Lite gives more weight to the portable side, but then the appeal of the device amongst casual gamers for local multiplayer experiences, fitness games etc all lean more towards TV use. Bottom line is the value of each play style is probably still very balanced. 

 



Mandalore76 on 12 July 2021
Dulfite said:
yo33331 said:

As how the switch is going under 400k weekly now regularly, and going close to 350K it becomes more and more questionable how many units will sell this year.

This year it began very strong for it however with every month the sales become less and less impressive to the point where 350K was PS4 sales territory when it was peak in 2017/2018, which console had 20M peak year, therefore the potential of the switch for 30M for this year becomes more and more unbelievable, and going more like 25M. I think even if the PS5 and XBSX get better stock by the end of the year this also could take some effect on the switch sales, because I am sure now since the launch of those consoles switch gained some new sales because of the hard to find Xbox and PS consoles, cuz some people that want to buy something to play they can't find PS5 or xbox and they take switch.

Also see the previous gen, 3DS was doing 13 and 14M per year and in 2014, when PS4 and XB1 got more in stock, the 3DS fell to only 8M for the year. Big drop.

Once the PS5 and XBSX got in full stock switch will drop to probably 200-250K per week.

So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I think Nintendo is far more concerned with yearly sales than they are generation sales like we are. Generation sales lead to massive differences in revenue and profit, but if they can stabalize yearly sales figures to be similar yearly then they don't have to explain to shareholders why there are drops in sales on those rough years. Generational growth should be sought after, for sure, but not in a way that leads to 30 million one year and 10 million another year. If they are convinced that between 2021 - 2024 they can sell more consoles by having Switch 2 launch in 2023, then that is what they are going to do. I'm convinced this is why the pro wasn't announced and won't be. They know they will sell far less consoles if they released a pro this year and therefore delayed Switch 2 release until 2024. History shows they release successor consoles roughly 2 years after their final iteration of the current console, and if the current one was coming this year that would mean they'd have to deal with people complaining about a recently purchased device becoming obselete in a short time span, which would hurt Switch 2 sales out of the gate. They don't want to tick off their fans by replacing recently released hardware so quickly, they don't want their shareholders on their backs about peak/down years, and they want generational growth obtained via momentum and constant relevance in the market. In my opinion the only way to do that is to scrap the Pro model altogether and release Switch 2 in 2023, 6 years after Switch 1.

100% true.  The Wii came within a million units of passing the original Playstation in lifetime sales, but Nintendo didn't make any real effort to push the Wii over the top.



Dulfite on 12 July 2021
Mandalore76 said:
Dulfite said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I think Nintendo is far more concerned with yearly sales than they are generation sales like we are. Generation sales lead to massive differences in revenue and profit, but if they can stabalize yearly sales figures to be similar yearly then they don't have to explain to shareholders why there are drops in sales on those rough years. Generational growth should be sought after, for sure, but not in a way that leads to 30 million one year and 10 million another year. If they are convinced that between 2021 - 2024 they can sell more consoles by having Switch 2 launch in 2023, then that is what they are going to do. I'm convinced this is why the pro wasn't announced and won't be. They know they will sell far less consoles if they released a pro this year and therefore delayed Switch 2 release until 2024. History shows they release successor consoles roughly 2 years after their final iteration of the current console, and if the current one was coming this year that would mean they'd have to deal with people complaining about a recently purchased device becoming obselete in a short time span, which would hurt Switch 2 sales out of the gate. They don't want to tick off their fans by replacing recently released hardware so quickly, they don't want their shareholders on their backs about peak/down years, and they want generational growth obtained via momentum and constant relevance in the market. In my opinion the only way to do that is to scrap the Pro model altogether and release Switch 2 in 2023, 6 years after Switch 1.

100% true.  The Wii came within a million units of passing the original Playstation in lifetime sales, but Nintendo didn't make any real effort to push the Wii over the top.

Yep. They clearly thought they had a lot more to gain profit-wise by pushing Wii U and 3ds. If Nintendo really cared about generation records (which are meaningless compared to profits for a public traded company), then Wii would have probably sold at least 10-15 million more copies. They will absolutely abandon the Switch the moment they think they can make more profit off a new device, even if it is close to passing up another system lifetime. You don't get to their stability level by focusing on numbers that excite .01% of gamers that care about said numbers, but you do get to that stability by focusing on profits, profits, profits. Obviously the Wii U bombed, but the 3ds made up for it (after its first year), but generally speaking this strategy has worked for Nintendo.



Agente42 on 12 July 2021
RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

This is from 2017, when switch was at around 10M or so sold. Now there are close to 90M so the ratio will have changed. However there is no recent research.

As for the PS3 graphics, It may have some graphical effect more but overall it is in the range of the 360/PS3 graphics. It is nowhere close to PS4 or XB1 let alone PS5 or XBSX...

There's not much you need to know for research. You merely need to observe the tie ratio in order to figure how a console like Switch is being used. Switch's tie ratio is 6.94 as of March 31st 2021. It's a value that has kept growing over time as you can see in the purple column of the Global Hardware+Software tab in this Google spreadsheet.

Here are the tie ratios for handheld consoles of the past:

GB/C: 4.22
GBA: 4.63
DS: 6.16 (highest all-time among handheld consoles of any manufacturer)
3DS: 5.09

This means that Switch has already passed the highest tie ratio ever achieved by a handheld console. What makes this more remarkable is that all of these tie ratios only account for games that are exclusively physical (GB/C, GBA, DS) or only games that are available in both physical and digital format (3DS, Switch). Or in other words, games that are only available in digital format are unaccounted for which in turn puts Switch at a major disadvantage in this comparison because the digital business on Switch is leaps and bounds better than on any previous Nintendo console.

In order to explain Switch's high tie ratio, you have two major options:

1. For whatever reason, handheld gamers have begun to buy many more games for their console than they historically did. However, said reason - whatever it may be - is not usage of Switch as a home console.

2. Due to Switch's hybrid design, the usage as a home console is very widespread which causes Switch to align itself more with home consoles than handheld consoles of the past.

Tie ratios of Nintendo home consoles of the past:

NES: 8.08
SNES: 7.72
N64: 6.83
GC: 9.59
Wii: 9.07
Wii U: 7.62

Again, tie ratios for consoles grow over time, so Switch's current value of 6.94 is not the end of the road yet. Switch is bound to finish in the upper half of home consoles, and again, that's without accounting for all the digital-only games that are selling on Switch.

And this number excludes all digital-only releases. Also you can deduce this Wii have a good value of tie ratio.



Mandalore76 on 12 July 2021
yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

As I already said, my prediction is coming because not being just a little bit down, but down for the whole quarter. The first quarter was up from 2020 by close to 1M. And now the second is down 1M. With similar difference in the next 2 quarters there it is - 25M for the year. Yes this is my " at best figure " because I am seeing where switch is going, from 450-500k in the beginning of the year to 360-370k now and possibly around 300k by end of august.

Those games that will release till the end of the year may help just slightly. Switch will be at around 90M after 2-3 months, so almost all of the hardcore fans of nintendo and those games have already bought it. They may help for week or two to boost the switch sales with some 20-30k max 50k for the given week. For the PS4 and the DS again, I am giving just examples and not directly comparing it to them by years and number. just by drops. I am saying that just like ds ps4 wii or some other consoles dropped off a cliff in their last 2-3 years, so will the switch.

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

Also I don't know who predicted for the switch to fall of a cliff in 2018 or 2019, this is stupid. It is normal to sell well for 3-4 years at least. But with 2020 and 2021 no one was expecting the sales that it did. However on it's sixth year - 2022 (after march) it's normal for the system to decline. And yes I am saying decline even for this year however 25M vs 28M last year isn't really a decline. Just like it wasnt decline for the DS from 29M to 27M in 2009, or it isn't decline for the PS4 from 20M to 18M in 2018. Those are just margin of error like .. You cant really call 10-15% a decline.

The Lite Model does not account for 90% of Switch's weekly sales.  You have no basis to say that only 10% of Switch owners are home console gamers.    Nintendo's own data disputes your claim.

The hybrid model regularly outsells it to the point that a scalper's market exists for the hybrid over 4 years into its lifespan even when the Lite is in steady supply.  Lite model sales have only seen an increased ratio over the hybrid when the hybrid has been supply constrained.