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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch is not bound by the patterns of the PS4, it's a totally different system with wider appeal due to its ability to sell to both the mobile and console markets. Switch has already had a year far bigger than any PS4 ever had.

Besides, 2020 was year 7 for the PS4, 2022 will only be Year 5/6 for the Switch.

I am giving PS4 as more recent example. It is valid for every console. After the console reach around 100M or more, games don't help to sell more units.

This is the way it is and the switch is not something special one of a kind. It is just like any other console. It is good selling okay, but it will stop selling at some point. And games won't help forever. It's ability to sell on both markets .. switch is selling the way it is because of the handheld. No one would buy switch hardware for home. Or just very hardcore fans. The buyers of nintendo are 80-90% handheld users. Even Nintendo officially told it 1 year ago.

And with the example of PS4 I am not comparing particular years. I am just saying that just like PS4 didn't boost it's sales from games, when it reached close to 100M so will the Switch and any other system.

Switch is actually not like other consoles, it's ability to sell to both the console and mobile markets gives it a wider reach and therefore higher saturation point than the PS4 which can only sell to the home console audience.

Every year of the Switch's life it has been predicted it will "fall off a cliff" the following year. It won't be true in 2022 just like it wasn't true for 2018, 2019, 2020, or 2021.

Will it decline? Naturally, yes, all systems do eventually. But 15 million next year? It is quite unlikely it will fall that fast.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Torpoleon said:

@SKMBlake It's actually possible for Switch sales in 2021 to be less overall than 2020. Even though it is still ahead of 2020 (barely), it is continuing to lose ground and while I'm sure the Switch will have great sales numbers for Q3, it will likely be below Q3 2020. Q4 2021 should be above Q4 2020, but I don't see it being enough to make up the deficit created by Q2 & Q3 being less.

I do think it's possible too, but the software lineup is way stronger than in 2020, that's what makes me doubt it.

In 2020, we got Paper Mario, Super Mario 3D All Stars, Pikmin 3 Deluxe and Age of Calamity as 1st party games, that's super weak. And still the sales were high. Now the lineup for the upcoming months is way stronger and there is a new model. So I don't know why it shouldn't reach 2020 levels.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

@SKMBlake So, you think that gains made in Q4 can offset losses in Q2 & Q3? How much do you think they'll sell this holiday?



yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

--- Also known as DS level sales

 --- It really wasn't, 2017/18 was PS4 peak years at 18-20m as you say, but middle of the year sales were around 250k with spikes to 350k, Switch has only dropped below 350k 1-week in the last 15 months. I'm sure PS5+XBS being more available will affect Switch sales a little as new hardware is more attractive than old, but I don't think it's significant.

 --- 3DS sales drop caused by PS4+XBO availability!? um ok. Again I'm sure some people might have bought 3DS on a whim when they couldn't find PS4, & maybe some other people decided against buying a 3DS once they got a PS4 but the numbers are probably in the 1 or 2-digit thousand range at best, sure i'm pulling that estimate out of my ass but do you really believe PS4/XBO were the major cause of 3DS's 2013/14 sales drop?

 --- I think you are being optimistic on the stock situation here, I doubt they will be widely available this year at all (except maybe the XBS|S)... and massively pessimistic on the effect it will have on the Switch, you think 40% of Switch's current sales are from people who can't find a PS5/XBS?

 --- OLED model will increase weekly sales (the new + shiny effect) but given the earlier pro rumours it might only counter the sales slowdown caused by those who were waiting for an improved pro model. However given the current level of sales 25M is the minimum it will manage this year even if OLED gives no gains... lets look at the last 3 years sales from July-Dec: It did ~11.5M in 2018, ~13.5M in 2019 & ~17.5M in 2020. The Switch is still tracking ahead of where it was this time last year.

--- To finish the year at only 100M Switch will have to drop to weekly average sales the same as it was in 2018, which was under 200k in non holiday weeks

 --- This is at least sensible, given the lack of a pro model it's more likely Switch successor will be in 2023, and once a launch is announced sales will fall, you just seem to be assuming an unprecedented quick fall in sales at least a year in advance of normal though.

 --- In 2018 it was more like 200-250k at this point in the year. But lets translate the PS4 slowdown rate as if 2018 = now for Switch. PS4 sold 7m in first half of that year, which was 38% of the yearly sales, Switch has sold >10.5M in first half, if that's 38% then this years sales should be >27.5M (LTD 104.5M). Then the next 2 years PS4 sales fell by 22% & then 40%, so Switch following the same pattern would mean sales of 21.5M & 12.9M.


Of course you mention PS4 death wasn't the biggest, the DS is the fastest falling we have VGC data for if we use 2009 as the end of it's peak period, which fell by 25% & 57%. But this would still result in sales of >20M in 2022 & 9M in 2023 if plugged into Switch's current sales.
 --- below 130M is frankly a pessimists dream for Switch at this point.

DS sales were more like 450-500K per week most of the time. Far ahead of switch sales are now.

I am not saying Switch have gotten below 350K, however it is lower than last year and lower than sales were this year earlier and it's not once but for several weeks now. This is some indication that the sales are not going up but down. And they will reach probably around 300K per week by end of August.

The 3DS and every console for that matter are slowing their sales once new (if successful) console is launched because there is new thing in town and the potential buyers now have more options. Whereas before that the only other options the buyer had was PS4 and XB1, which almost all of the gamers have already bought by 2020 for comparison. And this is taking effect not only for 3DS in 2014 or Switch soon once the stock become more available but for every other console too. I guarantee you that if Switch wasn't released PS4 would sell at least 10-15M more in the last 3-4 years, than it actually sold. XB1 maybe around 2-3M more.

And the slow of the sales will not be only because of this, but this will drop it by around 15-20%. The saturation point will help to drop it at least by another 10-15%. And when the things combined switch will be selling at around 200K per week (non holiday) for most of the next year.

OLED model will do little to no effect for the sales, cuz why ? only because of some more colors on the screen people will sell their systems and buy new ones ?

This is like announcing the XBOX One S Gears of War RED limited console in 2016 with the 2TB storage, Or PS4 Pro 500M edition with 2TB and special controller.

Switch doesn't need to drop like 2018 levels. It is dropping to 300k next month, and the holiday season will be something like 2018. Strong but not as much as 2019 or 2020. 14M In 6 months is not bad. I don't know why you are saying is minimum. It is perfectly respectable number. It can do 4M till september and 10M for the last 3 months of the year which will be very good number.

Once the successor is announced the sales will fall yes. But probably will be announced in january 2023, for the launch to take place at march or april just like the Switch. So yes, the full year will be affected. But even if the announcement camed later it still would affeact sales immediately, because everyone will wait for the new system.

And I am not comparing PS4 numbers to Switch numbers, I am comparing just how well PS4 was going and how everyone believed that it will reach at least 130M and most of the people even believed it can reach 140-150M but it won't reach even 120M. Now is the same for the switch, everything looks very good but just like PS4 and many other consoles, it comes point when in period of just 2 Years the sales drop of a cliff, just like Wii, DS, PS4, and many more. And the example with PS4 was not for 2018, but for 2019, and not the pure numbers but the drops. From 14M to 8M next year to 2M this year. Just like many other consoles experienced this so will the switch. And this drop may begin starting next year.

And The PS4 death is infact the biggest one. from 14M to 8M to 2M this year. The slight drop years like 2018 doesn't count. as it was for example the 27M year for the DS after it's 29M year. It counts from the first medium drop to the end. Switch will do the same. 25M now, slightly weaker than last year, and next year somewhere around 15M to under 10M in 2023 (possibly 6-8M), and 1-2M in 2024.

Also you are talking about how switch is having it's best year yet, passing even last year until this point in time. It is passing it because of it's first quarter of the calendar year. it's second is much lower, with the next week numbers it will make around 5M for the quarter where as the last year it was 6M, that also shows how switch is selling less and less with the time passing. PS4 in 2018 was the same. First quarter was stronger than 2017 first, and the system was up YOY, however the next 3 quarters were weaker and it sold 2M less than 2017 overall. Just like it's gonna happen with Switch. Its lead is from the first 3 months. It is 1M behind the second quarter and probably will make around 2-3M less in the next 2 quarters leaving it at about 25M this year.

And another comparison. PS4 was also ahead of PS2 sales back in 2019. When everyone still though PS4 can reach PS2 numbers or at least 140M lifetime.

Well it didn't happen. And the situation with the switch is the same here. That is what I am trying to tell. Just because something is looking very likely and just you think that there is no way of it to not happen, it shows you that it won't happen. Just like the PS4 situation turned out after 2019. It is okay to think it have a chance for the switch, however don't be 100% sure. You can't be sure of anything. The PS4 situation is proof that the situation can look very very good and in the end when the cliff come all dreams are being broken.

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

I agree with you on the Switch OLED, I just said it will increase weekly sales because it's a new item, but at best it will just negate the sales lost from people that were waiting for the rumoured Pro model.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

Anyhow, based on current VGC figures I'm expecting Switch to be down by about 1M from 2020 when the year ends ~27M (keeping in mind 2020 has 53 weeks in VGC data so the 52 week comparison would be 27.9M in 2020) Then next year maybe 20M, the year after that will depend on successor launch, if they launch in March then it will probaably drop to below 10M, then a further 5M in 2024-26 for an end of life around 135-140M

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 11 July 2021

HigHurtenflurst said:

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

As I already said, my prediction is coming because not being just a little bit down, but down for the whole quarter. The first quarter was up from 2020 by close to 1M. And now the second is down 1M. With similar difference in the next 2 quarters there it is - 25M for the year. Yes this is my " at best figure " because I am seeing where switch is going, from 450-500k in the beginning of the year to 360-370k now and possibly around 300k by end of august.

Those games that will release till the end of the year may help just slightly. Switch will be at around 90M after 2-3 months, so almost all of the hardcore fans of nintendo and those games have already bought it. They may help for week or two to boost the switch sales with some 20-30k max 50k for the given week. For the PS4 and the DS again, I am giving just examples and not directly comparing it to them by years and number. just by drops. I am saying that just like ds ps4 wii or some other consoles dropped off a cliff in their last 2-3 years, so will the switch.

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

Also I don't know who predicted for the switch to fall of a cliff in 2018 or 2019, this is stupid. It is normal to sell well for 3-4 years at least. But with 2020 and 2021 no one was expecting the sales that it did. However on it's sixth year - 2022 (after march) it's normal for the system to decline. And yes I am saying decline even for this year however 25M vs 28M last year isn't really a decline. Just like it wasnt decline for the DS from 29M to 27M in 2009, or it isn't decline for the PS4 from 20M to 18M in 2018. Those are just margin of error like .. You cant really call 10-15% a decline.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 11 July 2021

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Torpoleon said:

@SKMBlake So, you think that gains made in Q4 can offset losses in Q2 & Q3? How much do you think they'll sell this holiday?

I dunno.

I expect in Q4 to sell at least 12 million, can even reach 15 million. Thus making it 22-25 million in addition to the 10 million sold so far in 2021. And  about the quarter from july to september, it can reach 3-5 million, so overall 28-30 million (I can make crazy predictions as well, it's not a T-bone exclusive)



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

yo33331 said:

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

You're the last person who needs to be lashing out at people to stop treating a system like it's special, after your delusional ramblings the past how many years about 'PS4 would've broken every record if Sony just listened to me and eventually priced it to the point where they're just giving them away'.

PS4 never had the kind of sales trajectory and momentum that Switch has reached in recent years without a pricecut. Not even close. Now you're just carrying blatant butthurt over it and trying to project that disappointment onto Switch sales (and it's followers), because you refuse to believe a competitor's system is reaching the magical milestones you were having fever dreams about the PS4 attaining.

⚠️ — User was warned for this and other posts.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 16 July 2021

Shaunodon said:
yo33331 said:

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

You're the last person who needs to be lashing out at people to stop treating a system like it's special, after your delusional ramblings the past how many years about 'PS4 would've broken every record if Sony just listened to me and eventually priced it to the point where they're just giving them away'.

PS4 never had the kind of sales trajectory and momentum that Switch has reached in recent years without a pricecut. Not even close. Now you're just carrying blatant butthurt over it and trying to project that disappointment onto Switch sales (and it's followers), because you refuse to believe a competitor's system is reaching the magical milestones you were having fever dreams about the PS4 attaining.

@yo33331 Switch is a hybrid system, not a portable, the researchers demonstrate this. So you don't research about this or ignore the data? The two options s is very bad



yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

As I already said, my prediction is coming because not being just a little bit down, but down for the whole quarter. The first quarter was up from 2020 by close to 1M. And now the second is down 1M. With similar difference in the next 2 quarters there it is - 25M for the year. Yes this is my " at best figure " because I am seeing where switch is going, from 450-500k in the beginning of the year to 360-370k now and possibly around 300k by end of august.

Those games that will release till the end of the year may help just slightly. Switch will be at around 90M after 2-3 months, so almost all of the hardcore fans of nintendo and those games have already bought it. They may help for week or two to boost the switch sales with some 20-30k max 50k for the given week. For the PS4 and the DS again, I am giving just examples and not directly comparing it to them by years and number. just by drops. I am saying that just like ds ps4 wii or some other consoles dropped off a cliff in their last 2-3 years, so will the switch.

2020 Q1 cuts off most of the Covid & Animal Crossing boost wheras 2020 Q2 was absolutely nuts, the biggest Q2 on record, of course its down from that.

Comparing 2021 Q1 to Q2 is more valid, yes Switch is down from Q1-2 this year, though Monster Hunter is partially responsible (released same kind of time as Animal Crossing but a very front loaded game so system seller status will have been mostly contained in March)

And for comparing PS4 & DS with drops, yes thats why I used the DS from that period as an example as it is the fastest yearly sales drop, aka the steepest cliff that the Switch is likely to drop off.

Anyhow, I guess as you say: We will see.... Shouldnt be too long till quarterly reports come out (end of July I think usually), if it turns out Switch has been overtracked significantly then maybe this fast downward trend you are seeing will show a bit more prominantly on the charts, as at the moment i'm not seeing anything significant enough to warrant the drop you are expecting, all I see is a quiet period.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 11 July 2021

Shaunodon said:

You're the last person who needs to be lashing out at people to stop treating a system like it's special, after your delusional ramblings the past how many years about 'PS4 would've broken every record if Sony just listened to me and eventually priced it to the point where they're just giving them away'.

PS4 never had the kind of sales trajectory and momentum that Switch has reached in recent years without a pricecut. Not even close. Now you're just carrying blatant butthurt over it and trying to project that disappointment onto Switch sales (and it's followers), because you refuse to believe a competitor's system is reaching the magical milestones you were having fever dreams about the PS4 attaining.

Why are you turning this into personal ? I have made my predictions on the PS4 before as the way it was going in 2019, ahead of PS2 at the time. As many other people did too, not only me. there is nothing delusional or dreamed. And I am not the last person. Why the system is special ? cuz someone on the web said so ? because of 2 years selling very well ? so DS is special too, PS2 too and every console after 100M is special right ?

The PS4 could break any records yes, it had the momentum and many other people thought so. But sony didn't choose to. And not only with the pricecuts. I've explained the situation before, there is much more than only pricecuts that could be done.

Now many people have dreams about switch. And in the moment it looks possible. I am just saying that is wrong to be sure 100% about something. Because Switch now is far far away from that 160M mark, it's half there, there is a big way in front of it and many people are sure 100% that it will reach those numbers. That is why I am rambling. If it was 20-30M sure, do it. But it is 70M away and most people here say it will happen. 70M sales more are not made just like that. This is very serous prediction to make and just to say " switch will have great games next 3 years and nintendo won't release switch 2 until 2025 and switch will beat PS2.

And who is comparing PS4 to switch now ? Why you are using the example that I gave for declining, to show how much switch is ahead. PS2 is far far ahead of it. Switch is mouse and PS2 is king you happy now ? What you will say now ? If we will merit something switch is far from the biggest thing in the console market overall. PS2 and DS are there. And Switch where it is standing now is wayyy below. 70M below. You have dreams not me. You have dreams for the switch to beat PS2 but it won't. That is my predictions. And you can't say just like that it will, because 70M is very serious number, and even more serious about console that is 5 years old almost.

And I am giving predicition here. Just like everyone else. And there are many people that also don't think switch will go so much far after 140M lifetime. Just they don't go in arguing because is pointless. Time will show. We can argue all we want now but anyone will stay on his position until the time comes and it shows what really will happen.

Your personal attack shows just what weak person you are in the normal conversations about one or the other. And searching about my old post to analyze me ..

I have some more words to use here about that however I don't want to get banned because of someone like you .. who tries to attack on personal level.

Some of the people don't agree also (there is no way everyone can agree with everyone, always will be people that doubt you opinion whatever it is) , but they are saying normally their sides and opinions, the way it has to be. Yes I like more PS4 and what ? is it bad ? You like more Switch okay. Everyone is free to like whatever he wants. And make whatever predictions they want. You cant tell nobody what to do or what to like. And I am not trying to bash switch success just because of the PS4. I gave example with other successful consoles like Wii, DS and so on.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 11 July 2021