By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

yo33331 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch will be at #5 at the end of the year, and it will be at #3 sometime in 2022.  It's still too early tell when (and if) it will end up passing the top 2.  The contest with the top 2 is the real interesting one at this point.

As how the switch is going under 400k weekly now regularly, and going close to 350K it becomes more and more questionable how many units will sell this year.
 --- Also known as DS level sales

This year it began very strong for it however with every month the sales become less and less impressive to the point where 350K was PS4 sales territory when it was peak in 2017/2018, which console had 20M peak year, therefore the potential of the switch for 30M for this year becomes more and more unbelievable, and going more like 25M. I think even if the PS5 and XBSX get better stock by the end of the year this also could take some effect on the switch sales, because I am sure now since the launch of those consoles switch gained some new sales because of the hard to find Xbox and PS consoles, cuz some people that want to buy something to play they can't find PS5 or xbox and they take switch.
 --- It really wasn't, 2017/18 was PS4 peak years at 18-20m as you say, but middle of the year sales were around 250k with spikes to 350k, Switch has only dropped below 350k 1-week in the last 15 months. I'm sure PS5+XBS being more available will affect Switch sales a little as new hardware is more attractive than old, but I don't think it's significant.

Also see the previous gen, 3DS was doing 13 and 14M per year and in 2014, when PS4 and XB1 got more in stock, the 3DS fell to only 8M for the year. Big drop.
 --- 3DS sales drop caused by PS4+XBO availability!? um ok. Again I'm sure some people might have bought 3DS on a whim when they couldn't find PS4, & maybe some other people decided against buying a 3DS once they got a PS4 but the numbers are probably in the 1 or 2-digit thousand range at best, sure i'm pulling that estimate out of my ass but do you really believe PS4/XBO were the major cause of 3DS's 2013/14 sales drop?

Once the PS5 and XBSX got in full stock switch will drop to probably 200-250K per week.

So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

 --- I think you are being optimistic on the stock situation here, I doubt they will be widely available this year at all (except maybe the XBS|S)... and massively pessimistic on the effect it will have on the Switch, you think 40% of Switch's current sales are from people who can't find a PS5/XBS?

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

 --- OLED model will increase weekly sales (the new + shiny effect) but given the earlier pro rumours it might only counter the sales slowdown caused by those who were waiting for an improved pro model. However given the current level of sales 25M is the minimum it will manage this year even if OLED gives no gains... lets look at the last 3 years sales from July-Dec: It did ~11.5M in 2018, ~13.5M in 2019 & ~17.5M in 2020. The Switch is still tracking ahead of where it was this time last year.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M --- To finish the year at only 100M Switch will have to drop to weekly average sales the same as it was in 2018, which was under 200k in non holiday weeks

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

 --- This is at least sensible, given the lack of a pro model it's more likely Switch successor will be in 2023, and once a launch is announced sales will fall, you just seem to be assuming an unprecedented quick fall in sales at least a year in advance of normal though.

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

 --- In 2018 it was more like 200-250k at this point in the year. But lets translate the PS4 slowdown rate as if 2018 = now for Switch. PS4 sold 7m in first half of that year, which was 38% of the yearly sales, Switch has sold >10.5M in first half, if that's 38% then this years sales should be >27.5M (LTD 104.5M). Then the next 2 years PS4 sales fell by 22% & then 40%, so Switch following the same pattern would mean sales of 21.5M & 12.9M.
Of course you mention PS4 death wasn't the biggest, the DS is the fastest falling we have VGC data for if we use 2009 as the end of it's peak period, which fell by 25% & 57%. But this would still result in sales of >20M in 2022 & 9M in 2023 if plugged into Switch's current sales.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

 --- below 130M is frankly a pessimists dream for Switch at this point.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 10 July 2021

Around the Network
SKMBlake said:
yo33331 said:

You haven't understand me correctly. I meant that because the age of the smartphones has come, because of it people have began to change devices more often and therefore once the switch 2 comes out, switch 1 sales will die very fast. Just like pretty much every console did in the last 10 years. Of course smarthphones don't directly affect switch's sales. No one doubt that.

The switch sold 28M in 2020, not 29. And this year will make 25M at best. but 40M after this year ? no way. The switch successor as the things are going now is coming 2023, and after it launches switch will make no more than 10M. Next year will make something like 15 to 18M at the very best. And that's it.

So you think despite being already at more than 10 million so far, and ahead of 2020 sales, and with Zelda Skyward Sword, Metroid 5, Pokémon remake and Mario Party, and the OLED model, the Switch will sell less than 2020 ?

Yes, that's right.



HigHurtenflurst said:

--- Also known as DS level sales

 --- It really wasn't, 2017/18 was PS4 peak years at 18-20m as you say, but middle of the year sales were around 250k with spikes to 350k, Switch has only dropped below 350k 1-week in the last 15 months. I'm sure PS5+XBS being more available will affect Switch sales a little as new hardware is more attractive than old, but I don't think it's significant.

 --- 3DS sales drop caused by PS4+XBO availability!? um ok. Again I'm sure some people might have bought 3DS on a whim when they couldn't find PS4, & maybe some other people decided against buying a 3DS once they got a PS4 but the numbers are probably in the 1 or 2-digit thousand range at best, sure i'm pulling that estimate out of my ass but do you really believe PS4/XBO were the major cause of 3DS's 2013/14 sales drop?

 --- I think you are being optimistic on the stock situation here, I doubt they will be widely available this year at all (except maybe the XBS|S)... and massively pessimistic on the effect it will have on the Switch, you think 40% of Switch's current sales are from people who can't find a PS5/XBS?

 --- OLED model will increase weekly sales (the new + shiny effect) but given the earlier pro rumours it might only counter the sales slowdown caused by those who were waiting for an improved pro model. However given the current level of sales 25M is the minimum it will manage this year even if OLED gives no gains... lets look at the last 3 years sales from July-Dec: It did ~11.5M in 2018, ~13.5M in 2019 & ~17.5M in 2020. The Switch is still tracking ahead of where it was this time last year.

--- To finish the year at only 100M Switch will have to drop to weekly average sales the same as it was in 2018, which was under 200k in non holiday weeks

 --- This is at least sensible, given the lack of a pro model it's more likely Switch successor will be in 2023, and once a launch is announced sales will fall, you just seem to be assuming an unprecedented quick fall in sales at least a year in advance of normal though.

 --- In 2018 it was more like 200-250k at this point in the year. But lets translate the PS4 slowdown rate as if 2018 = now for Switch. PS4 sold 7m in first half of that year, which was 38% of the yearly sales, Switch has sold >10.5M in first half, if that's 38% then this years sales should be >27.5M (LTD 104.5M). Then the next 2 years PS4 sales fell by 22% & then 40%, so Switch following the same pattern would mean sales of 21.5M & 12.9M.


Of course you mention PS4 death wasn't the biggest, the DS is the fastest falling we have VGC data for if we use 2009 as the end of it's peak period, which fell by 25% & 57%. But this would still result in sales of >20M in 2022 & 9M in 2023 if plugged into Switch's current sales.
 --- below 130M is frankly a pessimists dream for Switch at this point.

DS sales were more like 450-500K per week most of the time. Far ahead of switch sales are now.

I am not saying Switch have gotten below 350K, however it is lower than last year and lower than sales were this year earlier and it's not once but for several weeks now. This is some indication that the sales are not going up but down. And they will reach probably around 300K per week by end of August.

The 3DS and every console for that matter are slowing their sales once new (if successful) console is launched because there is new thing in town and the potential buyers now have more options. Whereas before that the only other options the buyer had was PS4 and XB1, which almost all of the gamers have already bought by 2020 for comparison. And this is taking effect not only for 3DS in 2014 or Switch soon once the stock become more available but for every other console too. I guarantee you that if Switch wasn't released PS4 would sell at least 10-15M more in the last 3-4 years, than it actually sold. XB1 maybe around 2-3M more.

And the slow of the sales will not be only because of this, but this will drop it by around 15-20%. The saturation point will help to drop it at least by another 10-15%. And when the things combined switch will be selling at around 200K per week (non holiday) for most of the next year.

OLED model will do little to no effect for the sales, cuz why ? only because of some more colors on the screen people will sell their systems and buy new ones ?

This is like announcing the XBOX One S Gears of War RED limited console in 2016 with the 2TB storage, Or PS4 Pro 500M edition with 2TB and special controller.

Switch doesn't need to drop like 2018 levels. It is dropping to 300k next month, and the holiday season will be something like 2018. Strong but not as much as 2019 or 2020. 14M In 6 months is not bad. I don't know why you are saying is minimum. It is perfectly respectable number. It can do 4M till september and 10M for the last 3 months of the year which will be very good number.

Once the successor is announced the sales will fall yes. But probably will be announced in january 2023, for the launch to take place at march or april just like the Switch. So yes, the full year will be affected. But even if the announcement camed later it still would affeact sales immediately, because everyone will wait for the new system.

And I am not comparing PS4 numbers to Switch numbers, I am comparing just how well PS4 was going and how everyone believed that it will reach at least 130M and most of the people even believed it can reach 140-150M but it won't reach even 120M. Now is the same for the switch, everything looks very good but just like PS4 and many other consoles, it comes point when in period of just 2 Years the sales drop of a cliff, just like Wii, DS, PS4, and many more. And the example with PS4 was not for 2018, but for 2019, and not the pure numbers but the drops. From 14M to 8M next year to 2M this year. Just like many other consoles experienced this so will the switch. And this drop may begin starting next year.

And The PS4 death is infact the biggest one. from 14M to 8M to 2M this year. The slight drop years like 2018 doesn't count. as it was for example the 27M year for the DS after it's 29M year. It counts from the first medium drop to the end. Switch will do the same. 25M now, slightly weaker than last year, and next year somewhere around 15M to under 10M in 2023 (possibly 6-8M), and 1-2M in 2024.

Also you are talking about how switch is having it's best year yet, passing even last year until this point in time. It is passing it because of it's first quarter of the calendar year. it's second is much lower, with the next week numbers it will make around 5M for the quarter where as the last year it was 6M, that also shows how switch is selling less and less with the time passing. PS4 in 2018 was the same. First quarter was stronger than 2017 first, and the system was up YOY, however the next 3 quarters were weaker and it sold 2M less than 2017 overall. Just like it's gonna happen with Switch. Its lead is from the first 3 months. It is 1M behind the second quarter and probably will make around 2-3M less in the next 2 quarters leaving it at about 25M this year.

And another comparison. PS4 was also ahead of PS2 sales back in 2019. When everyone still though PS4 can reach PS2 numbers or at least 140M lifetime.

Well it didn't happen. And the situation with the switch is the same here. That is what I am trying to tell. Just because something is looking very likely and just you think that there is no way of it to not happen, it shows you that it won't happen. Just like the PS4 situation turned out after 2019. It is okay to think it have a chance for the switch, however don't be 100% sure. You can't be sure of anything. The PS4 situation is proof that the situation can look very very good and in the end when the cliff come all dreams are being broken.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 10 July 2021

@SKMBlake It's actually possible for Switch sales in 2021 to be less overall than 2020. Even though it is still ahead of 2020 (barely), it is continuing to lose ground and while I'm sure the Switch will have great sales numbers for Q3, it will likely be below Q3 2020. Q4 2021 should be above Q4 2020, but I don't see it being enough to make up the deficit created by Q2 & Q3 being less.



yo33331 said:

Also you projections about the next few years for the switch are even more than optimistic. Now in the age of smartphones and when the people learned to change their model/tech after 2 or 3 years this little to no drops of the sales year on year will not happen. It will be something like 25M this year, and 15M next year, and then the successor launches which will put the switch at something like 6-8M and then 1-2 for its last year. The same happened with PS4, and if there were some other big consoles in the recent years with 100+M sales it probably would be the same. The Wii back in 2010 did the same, from 17M to 11M to 5M in just 2 years, or the DS 20M to 8M to 3M. Or the PS4 now, from 14M to 8M last year, and 2M this year. Switch last big year is this. Next year will be mediocre around 15M. In fact the decline has already started. As I stated in my previous comment Switch was on fire in the beginning of the year and from almost 500K per week now is close to 350K per week, by august it will drop to probably 300K per week. After this it will have boost because of the holiday season however with the full stock of the new consoles by next year, and by reaching more and more the saturation point switch will do around 200-250K per week starting next year.

15M in 2022 is an unrealistic lowball with how strong its software lineup is already looking for next year.

Wii and DS aren't useful point for comparison as the former is quite unlike the Switch in its trajectory, and Switch is unlikely to be replaced next year (which is what curtailed DS) plus we already know it won't see a Wii-in-2011 style software evaporation just from the fact titles like Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BOTW2, Mario + Rabbits Sparks of Hope, etc are already announced.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Around the Network
curl-6 said:
yo33331 said:

Also you projections about the next few years for the switch are even more than optimistic. Now in the age of smartphones and when the people learned to change their model/tech after 2 or 3 years this little to no drops of the sales year on year will not happen. It will be something like 25M this year, and 15M next year, and then the successor launches which will put the switch at something like 6-8M and then 1-2 for its last year. The same happened with PS4, and if there were some other big consoles in the recent years with 100+M sales it probably would be the same. The Wii back in 2010 did the same, from 17M to 11M to 5M in just 2 years, or the DS 20M to 8M to 3M. Or the PS4 now, from 14M to 8M last year, and 2M this year. Switch last big year is this. Next year will be mediocre around 15M. In fact the decline has already started. As I stated in my previous comment Switch was on fire in the beginning of the year and from almost 500K per week now is close to 350K per week, by august it will drop to probably 300K per week. After this it will have boost because of the holiday season however with the full stock of the new consoles by next year, and by reaching more and more the saturation point switch will do around 200-250K per week starting next year.

15M in 2022 is an unrealistic lowball with how strong its software lineup is already looking for next year.

Wii and DS aren't useful point for comparison as the former is quite unlike the Switch in its trajectory, and Switch is unlikely to be replaced next year (which is what curtailed DS) plus we already know it won't see a Wii-in-2011 style software evaporation just from the fact titles like Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BOTW2, Mario + Rabbits Sparks of Hope, etc are already announced.

As I already said, there is a point where games just don't sell more hardware anymore, by next year Switch will be at around 102M or more, therefore the effect from big games coming in 2022 or 2023 will be little to none.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

15M in 2022 is an unrealistic lowball with how strong its software lineup is already looking for next year.

Wii and DS aren't useful point for comparison as the former is quite unlike the Switch in its trajectory, and Switch is unlikely to be replaced next year (which is what curtailed DS) plus we already know it won't see a Wii-in-2011 style software evaporation just from the fact titles like Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BOTW2, Mario + Rabbits Sparks of Hope, etc are already announced.

As I already said, there is a point where games just don't sell more hardware anymore, by next year Switch will be at around 102M or more, therefore the effect from big games coming in 2022 or 2023 will be little to none.

Even later in a system's life major titles play a key role in maintaining hardware sales momentum by keeping the system relevant and talked about. You don't need to cause a big wave, you only need to keep the train rolling, as has been proven to work in systems with longer lifespans. There's no reason for Switch to suddenly drop to 15 million in 2022.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
yo33331 said:

As I already said, there is a point where games just don't sell more hardware anymore, by next year Switch will be at around 102M or more, therefore the effect from big games coming in 2022 or 2023 will be little to none.

Even later in a system's life major titles play a key role in maintaining hardware sales momentum by keeping the system relevant and talked about. You don't need to cause a big wave, you only need to keep the train rolling, as has been proven to work in systems with longer lifespans. There's no reason for Switch to suddenly drop to 15 million in 2022.

When I was saying the same for the PS4 in 2019 (for the coming years) everyone doubt me. And the decline was so big that neither last of us 2 or ghosts of tshushima saved it. The same will be here.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 11 July 2021

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Even later in a system's life major titles play a key role in maintaining hardware sales momentum by keeping the system relevant and talked about. You don't need to cause a big wave, you only need to keep the train rolling, as has been proven to work in systems with longer lifespans. There's no reason for Switch to suddenly drop to 15 million in 2022.

When I was saying the same for the PS4 in 2019 (for the coming years) everyone doubt me. And the decline was so big that neither last of us 2 or ghosts of tshushima saved it. The same will be here.

Switch is not bound by the patterns of the PS4, it's a totally different system with wider appeal due to its ability to sell to both the mobile and console markets. Switch has already had a year far bigger than any PS4 ever had.

Besides, 2020 was year 7 for the PS4, 2022 will only be Year 5/6 for the Switch.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 11 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
yo33331 said:

When I was saying the same for the PS4 in 2019 (for the coming years) everyone doubt me. And the decline was so big that neither last of us 2 or ghosts of tshushima saved it. The same will be here.

Switch is not bound by the patterns of the PS4, it's a totally different system with wider appeal due to its ability to sell to both the mobile and console markets. Switch has already had a year far bigger than any PS4 ever had.

Besides, 2020 was year 7 for the PS4, 2022 will only be Year 5/6 for the Switch.

I am giving PS4 as more recent example. It is valid for every console. After the console reach around 100M or more, games don't help to sell more units.

This is the way it is and the switch is not something special one of a kind. It is just like any other console. It is good selling okay, but it will stop selling at some point. And games won't help forever. It's ability to sell on both markets .. switch is selling the way it is because of the handheld. No one would buy switch hardware for home. Or just very hardcore fans. The buyers of nintendo are 80-90% handheld users. Even Nintendo officially told it 1 year ago.

And with the example of PS4 I am not comparing particular years. I am just saying that just like PS4 didn't boost it's sales from games, when it reached close to 100M so will the Switch and any other system.