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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch is not bound by the patterns of the PS4, it's a totally different system with wider appeal due to its ability to sell to both the mobile and console markets. Switch has already had a year far bigger than any PS4 ever had.

Besides, 2020 was year 7 for the PS4, 2022 will only be Year 5/6 for the Switch.

I am giving PS4 as more recent example. It is valid for every console. After the console reach around 100M or more, games don't help to sell more units.

This is the way it is and the switch is not something special one of a kind. It is just like any other console. It is good selling okay, but it will stop selling at some point. And games won't help forever. It's ability to sell on both markets .. switch is selling the way it is because of the handheld. No one would buy switch hardware for home. Or just very hardcore fans. The buyers of nintendo are 80-90% handheld users. Even Nintendo officially told it 1 year ago.

And with the example of PS4 I am not comparing particular years. I am just saying that just like PS4 didn't boost it's sales from games, when it reached close to 100M so will the Switch and any other system.

Switch is actually not like other consoles, it's ability to sell to both the console and mobile markets gives it a wider reach and therefore higher saturation point than the PS4 which can only sell to the home console audience.

Every year of the Switch's life it has been predicted it will "fall off a cliff" the following year. It won't be true in 2022 just like it wasn't true for 2018, 2019, 2020, or 2021.

Will it decline? Naturally, yes, all systems do eventually. But 15 million next year? It is quite unlikely it will fall that fast.



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Torpoleon said:

@SKMBlake It's actually possible for Switch sales in 2021 to be less overall than 2020. Even though it is still ahead of 2020 (barely), it is continuing to lose ground and while I'm sure the Switch will have great sales numbers for Q3, it will likely be below Q3 2020. Q4 2021 should be above Q4 2020, but I don't see it being enough to make up the deficit created by Q2 & Q3 being less.

I do think it's possible too, but the software lineup is way stronger than in 2020, that's what makes me doubt it.

In 2020, we got Paper Mario, Super Mario 3D All Stars, Pikmin 3 Deluxe and Age of Calamity as 1st party games, that's super weak. And still the sales were high. Now the lineup for the upcoming months is way stronger and there is a new model. So I don't know why it shouldn't reach 2020 levels.



@SKMBlake So, you think that gains made in Q4 can offset losses in Q2 & Q3? How much do you think they'll sell this holiday?



yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

--- Also known as DS level sales

 --- It really wasn't, 2017/18 was PS4 peak years at 18-20m as you say, but middle of the year sales were around 250k with spikes to 350k, Switch has only dropped below 350k 1-week in the last 15 months. I'm sure PS5+XBS being more available will affect Switch sales a little as new hardware is more attractive than old, but I don't think it's significant.

 --- 3DS sales drop caused by PS4+XBO availability!? um ok. Again I'm sure some people might have bought 3DS on a whim when they couldn't find PS4, & maybe some other people decided against buying a 3DS once they got a PS4 but the numbers are probably in the 1 or 2-digit thousand range at best, sure i'm pulling that estimate out of my ass but do you really believe PS4/XBO were the major cause of 3DS's 2013/14 sales drop?

 --- I think you are being optimistic on the stock situation here, I doubt they will be widely available this year at all (except maybe the XBS|S)... and massively pessimistic on the effect it will have on the Switch, you think 40% of Switch's current sales are from people who can't find a PS5/XBS?

 --- OLED model will increase weekly sales (the new + shiny effect) but given the earlier pro rumours it might only counter the sales slowdown caused by those who were waiting for an improved pro model. However given the current level of sales 25M is the minimum it will manage this year even if OLED gives no gains... lets look at the last 3 years sales from July-Dec: It did ~11.5M in 2018, ~13.5M in 2019 & ~17.5M in 2020. The Switch is still tracking ahead of where it was this time last year.

--- To finish the year at only 100M Switch will have to drop to weekly average sales the same as it was in 2018, which was under 200k in non holiday weeks

 --- This is at least sensible, given the lack of a pro model it's more likely Switch successor will be in 2023, and once a launch is announced sales will fall, you just seem to be assuming an unprecedented quick fall in sales at least a year in advance of normal though.

 --- In 2018 it was more like 200-250k at this point in the year. But lets translate the PS4 slowdown rate as if 2018 = now for Switch. PS4 sold 7m in first half of that year, which was 38% of the yearly sales, Switch has sold >10.5M in first half, if that's 38% then this years sales should be >27.5M (LTD 104.5M). Then the next 2 years PS4 sales fell by 22% & then 40%, so Switch following the same pattern would mean sales of 21.5M & 12.9M.


Of course you mention PS4 death wasn't the biggest, the DS is the fastest falling we have VGC data for if we use 2009 as the end of it's peak period, which fell by 25% & 57%. But this would still result in sales of >20M in 2022 & 9M in 2023 if plugged into Switch's current sales.
 --- below 130M is frankly a pessimists dream for Switch at this point.

DS sales were more like 450-500K per week most of the time. Far ahead of switch sales are now.

I am not saying Switch have gotten below 350K, however it is lower than last year and lower than sales were this year earlier and it's not once but for several weeks now. This is some indication that the sales are not going up but down. And they will reach probably around 300K per week by end of August.

The 3DS and every console for that matter are slowing their sales once new (if successful) console is launched because there is new thing in town and the potential buyers now have more options. Whereas before that the only other options the buyer had was PS4 and XB1, which almost all of the gamers have already bought by 2020 for comparison. And this is taking effect not only for 3DS in 2014 or Switch soon once the stock become more available but for every other console too. I guarantee you that if Switch wasn't released PS4 would sell at least 10-15M more in the last 3-4 years, than it actually sold. XB1 maybe around 2-3M more.

And the slow of the sales will not be only because of this, but this will drop it by around 15-20%. The saturation point will help to drop it at least by another 10-15%. And when the things combined switch will be selling at around 200K per week (non holiday) for most of the next year.

OLED model will do little to no effect for the sales, cuz why ? only because of some more colors on the screen people will sell their systems and buy new ones ?

This is like announcing the XBOX One S Gears of War RED limited console in 2016 with the 2TB storage, Or PS4 Pro 500M edition with 2TB and special controller.

Switch doesn't need to drop like 2018 levels. It is dropping to 300k next month, and the holiday season will be something like 2018. Strong but not as much as 2019 or 2020. 14M In 6 months is not bad. I don't know why you are saying is minimum. It is perfectly respectable number. It can do 4M till september and 10M for the last 3 months of the year which will be very good number.

Once the successor is announced the sales will fall yes. But probably will be announced in january 2023, for the launch to take place at march or april just like the Switch. So yes, the full year will be affected. But even if the announcement camed later it still would affeact sales immediately, because everyone will wait for the new system.

And I am not comparing PS4 numbers to Switch numbers, I am comparing just how well PS4 was going and how everyone believed that it will reach at least 130M and most of the people even believed it can reach 140-150M but it won't reach even 120M. Now is the same for the switch, everything looks very good but just like PS4 and many other consoles, it comes point when in period of just 2 Years the sales drop of a cliff, just like Wii, DS, PS4, and many more. And the example with PS4 was not for 2018, but for 2019, and not the pure numbers but the drops. From 14M to 8M next year to 2M this year. Just like many other consoles experienced this so will the switch. And this drop may begin starting next year.

And The PS4 death is infact the biggest one. from 14M to 8M to 2M this year. The slight drop years like 2018 doesn't count. as it was for example the 27M year for the DS after it's 29M year. It counts from the first medium drop to the end. Switch will do the same. 25M now, slightly weaker than last year, and next year somewhere around 15M to under 10M in 2023 (possibly 6-8M), and 1-2M in 2024.

Also you are talking about how switch is having it's best year yet, passing even last year until this point in time. It is passing it because of it's first quarter of the calendar year. it's second is much lower, with the next week numbers it will make around 5M for the quarter where as the last year it was 6M, that also shows how switch is selling less and less with the time passing. PS4 in 2018 was the same. First quarter was stronger than 2017 first, and the system was up YOY, however the next 3 quarters were weaker and it sold 2M less than 2017 overall. Just like it's gonna happen with Switch. Its lead is from the first 3 months. It is 1M behind the second quarter and probably will make around 2-3M less in the next 2 quarters leaving it at about 25M this year.

And another comparison. PS4 was also ahead of PS2 sales back in 2019. When everyone still though PS4 can reach PS2 numbers or at least 140M lifetime.

Well it didn't happen. And the situation with the switch is the same here. That is what I am trying to tell. Just because something is looking very likely and just you think that there is no way of it to not happen, it shows you that it won't happen. Just like the PS4 situation turned out after 2019. It is okay to think it have a chance for the switch, however don't be 100% sure. You can't be sure of anything. The PS4 situation is proof that the situation can look very very good and in the end when the cliff come all dreams are being broken.

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

I agree with you on the Switch OLED, I just said it will increase weekly sales because it's a new item, but at best it will just negate the sales lost from people that were waiting for the rumoured Pro model.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

Anyhow, based on current VGC figures I'm expecting Switch to be down by about 1M from 2020 when the year ends ~27M (keeping in mind 2020 has 53 weeks in VGC data so the 52 week comparison would be 27.9M in 2020) Then next year maybe 20M, the year after that will depend on successor launch, if they launch in March then it will probaably drop to below 10M, then a further 5M in 2024-26 for an end of life around 135-140M

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 11 July 2021

Torpoleon said:

@SKMBlake So, you think that gains made in Q4 can offset losses in Q2 & Q3? How much do you think they'll sell this holiday?

I dunno.

I expect in Q4 to sell at least 12 million, can even reach 15 million. Thus making it 22-25 million in addition to the 10 million sold so far in 2021. And  about the quarter from july to september, it can reach 3-5 million, so overall 28-30 million (I can make crazy predictions as well, it's not a T-bone exclusive)



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yo33331 said:

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

You're the last person who needs to be lashing out at people to stop treating a system like it's special, after your delusional ramblings the past how many years about 'PS4 would've broken every record if Sony just listened to me and eventually priced it to the point where they're just giving them away'.

PS4 never had the kind of sales trajectory and momentum that Switch has reached in recent years without a pricecut. Not even close. Now you're just carrying blatant butthurt over it and trying to project that disappointment onto Switch sales (and it's followers), because you refuse to believe a competitor's system is reaching the magical milestones you were having fever dreams about the PS4 attaining.

⚠️ — User was warned for this and other posts.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 16 July 2021

Shaunodon said:
yo33331 said:

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

You're the last person who needs to be lashing out at people to stop treating a system like it's special, after your delusional ramblings the past how many years about 'PS4 would've broken every record if Sony just listened to me and eventually priced it to the point where they're just giving them away'.

PS4 never had the kind of sales trajectory and momentum that Switch has reached in recent years without a pricecut. Not even close. Now you're just carrying blatant butthurt over it and trying to project that disappointment onto Switch sales (and it's followers), because you refuse to believe a competitor's system is reaching the magical milestones you were having fever dreams about the PS4 attaining.

@yo33331 Switch is a hybrid system, not a portable, the researchers demonstrate this. So you don't research about this or ignore the data? The two options s is very bad



yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

As I already said, my prediction is coming because not being just a little bit down, but down for the whole quarter. The first quarter was up from 2020 by close to 1M. And now the second is down 1M. With similar difference in the next 2 quarters there it is - 25M for the year. Yes this is my " at best figure " because I am seeing where switch is going, from 450-500k in the beginning of the year to 360-370k now and possibly around 300k by end of august.

Those games that will release till the end of the year may help just slightly. Switch will be at around 90M after 2-3 months, so almost all of the hardcore fans of nintendo and those games have already bought it. They may help for week or two to boost the switch sales with some 20-30k max 50k for the given week. For the PS4 and the DS again, I am giving just examples and not directly comparing it to them by years and number. just by drops. I am saying that just like ds ps4 wii or some other consoles dropped off a cliff in their last 2-3 years, so will the switch.

2020 Q1 cuts off most of the Covid & Animal Crossing boost wheras 2020 Q2 was absolutely nuts, the biggest Q2 on record, of course its down from that.

Comparing 2021 Q1 to Q2 is more valid, yes Switch is down from Q1-2 this year, though Monster Hunter is partially responsible (released same kind of time as Animal Crossing but a very front loaded game so system seller status will have been mostly contained in March)

And for comparing PS4 & DS with drops, yes thats why I used the DS from that period as an example as it is the fastest yearly sales drop, aka the steepest cliff that the Switch is likely to drop off.

Anyhow, I guess as you say: We will see.... Shouldnt be too long till quarterly reports come out (end of July I think usually), if it turns out Switch has been overtracked significantly then maybe this fast downward trend you are seeing will show a bit more prominantly on the charts, as at the moment i'm not seeing anything significant enough to warrant the drop you are expecting, all I see is a quiet period.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 11 July 2021

Every year we hear about how Switch is just about to fall of a cliff.. every year it ends up seeing gains.

Unlike past Nintendo systems that had to balance between two devices now we are seeing a system which is supported fully by all their first and second party studios.
This in turn has lead them to a dominant position. For example in Japan, Switch has gone from 61% market share to 74% market share in 2020, to likely over 90% market share this year. This is uncharted territory in the Nation which is the second biggest market for the Switch and home to tons of publishers which basically get 80% of their software sales in Japan and East Asia. When we look at the massive difference in support during the first three and a half years of the Switch life compared to the current state of the Japanese market its fairly clear that it's not just Nintendo, Pokemon Co & indies maintaining momentum. In the past 12 months we've had numerous success stories which aid the Switch not only maintain hardware momentum in Japan but also accelerate it in East Asia. The weight of Capcom, Konami, Koei, Marvelous and many others that has managed to have million selling franchises in the past year is certainly something people forget to account for in these threads. Especially as the games Japanese Publishers make are most popular in Nintendo's fastest growing region - East Asia.

It's an overlooked facet of hardware momentum that up until the middle of last year third parties were still not fully embracing the market leader in Japan, which is happening right now. Hardware sales in Japan have been in a delicate balance between PS & Nintendo since the PS2, with third parties contributing to Sony's success during it's peak in Japan, while Nintendo & Pokemon Co being the main factor behind Nintendo's hardware success. Since the fall of 2020 we've finally gotten a steady line-up of third party titles on the Switch, which contribute to the hardware momentum. This steady line-up will help Nintendo not just in their home country but also markets which have generally been aligned with the trends in Japan - software sales in South Korea last year were over 80% in favor of the Switch, and 60% in Taiwan. East Asia continues to be Nintendo's fastest growing region with China making a big contribution to this.

This is the main reason Switch will not follow previous norms, it's only late 2020/2021/2022 where we are seeing the results of third parties, this is the main reason Japan will end up with growth YoY, and East Asia will follow the same trend as it has in the past few years. OLED will help in my opinion but things will line-up nicely for 2022 which would be the software peak for the system. I personally think that it could also end up being the hardware peak as well. So in my humble opinion Switch will become the best selling system of all time by the end of 2022, surpassing the likes of the Nintendo DS & PlayStation 2 while still having at least one more year of sales before the successor launches.

With PS5 being pretty much irrelevant in Japan, the monopoly Nintendo will enjoy in the country will ensure that 90% of Japanese third party games target it as the primary device. Most Japanese games aren't compeating with AAA, so its a natural fit, creating further differentiation for the Switch in other markets.

So using historical trends isn't the wisest way to anticipate what will happen. There is a reason Splatoon 3, The Sequel to Breath of the Wild & Pokémon Legends: Arceus are launching next year; making the line-up the strongest we've seen since launch, no doubt other devices in the Switch family are planned for 2022 so talking about a cliff is premature. Nintendo financials will come out soon and for all we know VGCHARTz estimates are conservative.



yo33331 said:
Agente42 said:

@yo33331 Switch is a hybrid system, not a portable, the researchers demonstrate this. So you don't research about this or ignore the data? The two options s is very bad

It's a hybrid however no one buys it to play it as a home console. That's why I am saying that almost all of the buyers are buying it because it can be used as a handheld. Even Nintendo's official statement tells it.

Can you link me to that statement as I can only find play use research from 2017, which at the time was split:
20% primarily docked
30% primarily handheld
50% mixed use

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171031_2e.pdf

I don't doubt it has increased in favour of handheld only (obviously as the Switch Lite can't be docked) but it would be nice to have a source.