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HigHurtenflurst on 11 July 2021
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yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

As I already said, my prediction is coming because not being just a little bit down, but down for the whole quarter. The first quarter was up from 2020 by close to 1M. And now the second is down 1M. With similar difference in the next 2 quarters there it is - 25M for the year. Yes this is my " at best figure " because I am seeing where switch is going, from 450-500k in the beginning of the year to 360-370k now and possibly around 300k by end of august.

Those games that will release till the end of the year may help just slightly. Switch will be at around 90M after 2-3 months, so almost all of the hardcore fans of nintendo and those games have already bought it. They may help for week or two to boost the switch sales with some 20-30k max 50k for the given week. For the PS4 and the DS again, I am giving just examples and not directly comparing it to them by years and number. just by drops. I am saying that just like ds ps4 wii or some other consoles dropped off a cliff in their last 2-3 years, so will the switch.

2020 Q1 cuts off most of the Covid & Animal Crossing boost wheras 2020 Q2 was absolutely nuts, the biggest Q2 on record, of course its down from that.

Comparing 2021 Q1 to Q2 is more valid, yes Switch is down from Q1-2 this year, though Monster Hunter is partially responsible (released same kind of time as Animal Crossing but a very front loaded game so system seller status will have been mostly contained in March)

And for comparing PS4 & DS with drops, yes thats why I used the DS from that period as an example as it is the fastest yearly sales drop, aka the steepest cliff that the Switch is likely to drop off.

Anyhow, I guess as you say: We will see.... Shouldnt be too long till quarterly reports come out (end of July I think usually), if it turns out Switch has been overtracked significantly then maybe this fast downward trend you are seeing will show a bit more prominantly on the charts, as at the moment i'm not seeing anything significant enough to warrant the drop you are expecting, all I see is a quiet period.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 11 July 2021