By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

@The_Liquid_Laser Definitely too early, but it does feel like Switch will be #3 by the end of next year though. Shouldn't be too hard for it to cross 120M by the end of next year. Whether or not it can pass DS & PS2 depends largely on when Nintendo releases a successor. If it is before holiday 2024, I would say that it won't surpass either of them, but starting in holiday 2024, it does have a chance.

@yo33331 I think it would be pretty easy for Switch to pass 130M even if a successor launches in 2023 (though that seems too early...hoping for holiday 2024 at the latest). Assuming Nintendo meets their projections, the Switch will be at just over 110 million at the end of March 2022, and that would be its third FY over 20M. While I would expect the FY ending March 2023 to be down, I can't see it being drastically down with big titles like BOTW 2 & Splatoon 3 launching. Maybe they'll even release a Switch Pro during that FY's holiday.



Around the Network
Torpoleon said:

@yo33331 I think it would be pretty easy for Switch to pass 130M even if a successor launches in 2023 (though that seems too early...hoping for holiday 2024 at the latest). Assuming Nintendo meets their projections, the Switch will be at just over 110 million at the end of March 2022, and that would be its third FY over 20M. While I would expect the FY ending March 2023 to be down, I can't see it being drastically down with big titles like BOTW 2 & Splatoon 3 launching. Maybe they'll even release a Switch Pro during that FY's holiday.

It will reach 102M at best by end of this year.

So you are saying that it will make 8M for 3 months ? despite the year being weaker than this one, and this one switch hit 8M in may ? so around 5 months. No way.

And also no way they would wait till end of 2023 for Pro model, and no way they are releasing successor in 2025.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 09 July 2021

HigHurtenflurst said:
yo33331 said:

More like 10M for the XBOX, and around 15M for the PS5

Are you both thinking "end of the year" means first 12 months from launch? end of the year to me means calendar year, or the end of December.

By VGC at the end of 2014 PS4 was at 18.2m & XBO was at 10.3m... I know they are struggling with demand at the moment but I highly doubt there won't be some level of stockpiling for the holidays, so with both tracking ahead of predecessors id say you are both predicting too low for both consoles. Ignoring any adjustments my current prediction would be 11m for X/S & 19m for PS5.

I meant calendar year. I didn't look into what the X1 and ps4 sold by the end of 2014 so thanks for informing me. I will definitely raise my prediction a couple million then for both systems. 



I really do think Sony and Ms will expand their usual numbers for a generation with the PS5 and Xbox Series.

Sony will release PSVR2 next year and they expect to ship more than 22.2 million units for FY2022 and MS will deliver more first party games starting next year.



SKMBlake said:
trunkswd said:

So in the first 6 months of the year, the PS5 sold x2 consoles than the Series X/S

More like 1.6x which isn't as bad. Ok sure they've stated their main point about this gen isn't selling consoles though. It's all about getting people onto Gamepass.



Around the Network
JSG87 said:
SKMBlake said:

So in the first 6 months of the year, the PS5 sold x2 consoles than the Series X/S

More like 1.6x which isn't as bad.

What ? No. The PS5 slld 5.155 million this year and Xbox 2.672 million

5.155 / 2.672 = 1.92, so almost x2



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

yo33331 said:
Torpoleon said:

@yo33331 I think it would be pretty easy for Switch to pass 130M even if a successor launches in 2023 (though that seems too early...hoping for holiday 2024 at the latest). Assuming Nintendo meets their projections, the Switch will be at just over 110 million at the end of March 2022, and that would be its third FY over 20M. While I would expect the FY ending March 2023 to be down, I can't see it being drastically down with big titles like BOTW 2 & Splatoon 3 launching. Maybe they'll even release a Switch Pro during that FY's holiday.

It will reach 102M at best by end of this year.

So you are saying that it will make 8M for 3 months ? despite the year being weaker than this one, and this one switch hit 8M in may ? so around 5 months. No way.

And also no way they would wait till end of 2023 for Pro model, and no way they are releasing successor in 2025.

As of March 31st 2021 Nintendo's official shipments were 84.59mil units. Iirc their FY projection is 26mil, so 110mil at the end of March 2022.

I think it will reach 105mil at the least at the end of the CY, considering the holiday quarter this year has a way better line up than last year and that coupled with the oled model will likely lead to a bigger holiday season than in 2020.

Since Nintendo overprojected sales for 2018 they have been cautious to not do it again and the Switch outperformed their projections the following two years.

Looking at the already announced games for 2022 I don't see a reason why the Switch shouldn't sell over 20mil units in 2022. It would need to drop of a cliff worse than the Wii to not reach 130mil in 2023 with ease.

About your point with the 3DS sales dropping when more PS4 and Xbox One stock was available doesn't make much sense with the Switch. Why? Because the 3DS was just a mildly popular more modern iteration of the DS, the Switch on the other hand is wildly popular and a hybrid console, a new format. The Switch is in no direct competition to the other consoles.



JSG87 said:
SKMBlake said:

So in the first 6 months of the year, the PS5 sold x2 consoles than the Series X/S

More like 1.6x which isn't as bad. Ok sure they've stated their main point about this gen isn't selling consoles though. It's all about getting people onto Gamepass.

This would be taking into account the holiday launches last year. Post Launch however, its been a 2:1 ratio (2021)



yo33331 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch will be at #5 at the end of the year, and it will be at #3 sometime in 2022.  It's still too early tell when (and if) it will end up passing the top 2.  The contest with the top 2 is the real interesting one at this point.

As how the switch is going under 400k weekly now regularly, and going close to 350K it becomes more and more questionable how many units will sell this year.

This year it began very strong for it however with every month the sales become less and less impressive to the point where 350K was PS4 sales territory when it was peak in 2017/2018, which console had 20M peak year, therefore the potential of the switch for 30M for this year becomes more and more unbelievable, and going more like 25M. I think even if the PS5 and XBSX get better stock by the end of the year this also could take some effect on the switch sales, because I am sure now since the launch of those consoles switch gained some new sales because of the hard to find Xbox and PS consoles, cuz some people that want to buy something to play they can't find PS5 or xbox and they take switch.

Also see the previous gen, 3DS was doing 13 and 14M per year and in 2014, when PS4 and XB1 got more in stock, the 3DS fell to only 8M for the year. Big drop.

Once the PS5 and XBSX got in full stock switch will drop to probably 200-250K per week.

So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

I've been hearing "Switch sales are about to fall off a cliff" for 3-4 years now.  It's good to know that there is still at least one true believer out there.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
yo33331 said:

they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff.

I've been hearing "Switch sales are about to fall off a cliff" for 3-4 years now.  It's good to know that there is still at least one true believer out there.

Switch can't sell forever so eventually he will be right.