And what you want is not gonna happen. I wanted for the PS4 to reach PS2 also. In fact there was a way, however Sony didn't move their finger about it.

Nintendo won't do it either. Price cuts are a past thing now.

Now in the age of smartphones and when the people learned to change their model/tech after 2 or 3 years this little to no drops of the sales year on year will not happen. 

You haven't understand me correctly. I meant that because the age of the smartphones has come, because of it people have began to change devices more often and therefore once the switch 2 comes out, switch 1 sales will die very fast. Just like pretty much every console did in the last 10 years. Of course smarthphones don't directly affect switch's sales. No one doubt that.

The switch sold 28M in 2020, not 29. And this year will make 25M at best. but 40M after this year ? no way. The switch successor as the things are going now is coming 2023, and after it launches switch will make no more than 10M. Next year will make something like 15 to 18M at the very best. And that's it.

As how the switch is going under 400k weekly now regularly, and going close to 350K it becomes more and more questionable how many units will sell this year.
 --- Also known as DS level sales

This year it began very strong for it however with every month the sales become less and less impressive to the point where 350K was PS4 sales territory when it was peak in 2017/2018, which console had 20M peak year, therefore the potential of the switch for 30M for this year becomes more and more unbelievable, and going more like 25M. I think even if the PS5 and XBSX get better stock by the end of the year this also could take some effect on the switch sales, because I am sure now since the launch of those consoles switch gained some new sales because of the hard to find Xbox and PS consoles, cuz some people that want to buy something to play they can't find PS5 or xbox and they take switch.
 --- It really wasn't, 2017/18 was PS4 peak years at 18-20m as you say, but middle of the year sales were around 250k with spikes to 350k, Switch has only dropped below 350k 1-week in the last 15 months. I'm sure PS5+XBS being more available will affect Switch sales a little as new hardware is more attractive than old, but I don't think it's significant.

Also see the previous gen, 3DS was doing 13 and 14M per year and in 2014, when PS4 and XB1 got more in stock, the 3DS fell to only 8M for the year. Big drop.
 --- 3DS sales drop caused by PS4+XBO availability!? um ok. Again I'm sure some people might have bought 3DS on a whim when they couldn't find PS4, & maybe some other people decided against buying a 3DS once they got a PS4 but the numbers are probably in the 1 or 2-digit thousand range at best, sure i'm pulling that estimate out of my ass but do you really believe PS4/XBO were the major cause of 3DS's 2013/14 sales drop?

Once the PS5 and XBSX got in full stock switch will drop to probably 200-250K per week.

So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

 --- I think you are being optimistic on the stock situation here, I doubt they will be widely available this year at all (except maybe the XBS|S)... and massively pessimistic on the effect it will have on the Switch, you think 40% of Switch's current sales are from people who can't find a PS5/XBS?

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

 --- OLED model will increase weekly sales (the new + shiny effect) but given the earlier pro rumours it might only counter the sales slowdown caused by those who were waiting for an improved pro model. However given the current level of sales 25M is the minimum it will manage this year even if OLED gives no gains... lets look at the last 3 years sales from July-Dec: It did ~11.5M in 2018, ~13.5M in 2019 & ~17.5M in 2020. The Switch is still tracking ahead of where it was this time last year.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M --- To finish the year at only 100M Switch will have to drop to weekly average sales the same as it was in 2018, which was under 200k in non holiday weeks

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

 --- This is at least sensible, given the lack of a pro model it's more likely Switch successor will be in 2023, and once a launch is announced sales will fall, you just seem to be assuming an unprecedented quick fall in sales at least a year in advance of normal though.

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

 --- In 2018 it was more like 200-250k at this point in the year. But lets translate the PS4 slowdown rate as if 2018 = now for Switch. PS4 sold 7m in first half of that year, which was 38% of the yearly sales, Switch has sold >10.5M in first half, if that's 38% then this years sales should be >27.5M (LTD 104.5M). Then the next 2 years PS4 sales fell by 22% & then 40%, so Switch following the same pattern would mean sales of 21.5M & 12.9M.
Of course you mention PS4 death wasn't the biggest, the DS is the fastest falling we have VGC data for if we use 2009 as the end of it's peak period, which fell by 25% & 57%. But this would still result in sales of >20M in 2022 & 9M in 2023 if plugged into Switch's current sales.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

 --- below 130M is frankly a pessimists dream for Switch at this point.

Also you projections about the next few years for the switch are even more than optimistic. Now in the age of smartphones and when the people learned to change their model/tech after 2 or 3 years this little to no drops of the sales year on year will not happen. It will be something like 25M this year, and 15M next year, and then the successor launches which will put the switch at something like 6-8M and then 1-2 for its last year. The same happened with PS4, and if there were some other big consoles in the recent years with 100+M sales it probably would be the same. The Wii back in 2010 did the same, from 17M to 11M to 5M in just 2 years, or the DS 20M to 8M to 3M. Or the PS4 now, from 14M to 8M last year, and 2M this year. Switch last big year is this. Next year will be mediocre around 15M. In fact the decline has already started. As I stated in my previous comment Switch was on fire in the beginning of the year and from almost 500K per week now is close to 350K per week, by august it will drop to probably 300K per week. After this it will have boost because of the holiday season however with the full stock of the new consoles by next year, and by reaching more and more the saturation point switch will do around 200-250K per week starting next year.

As I already said, there is a point where games just don't sell more hardware anymore, by next year Switch will be at around 102M or more, therefore the effect from big games coming in 2022 or 2023 will be little to none.

When I was saying the same for the PS4 in 2019 (for the coming years) everyone doubt me. And the decline was so big that neither last of us 2 or ghosts of tshushima saved it. The same will be here.