| yo33331 said: Also you projections about the next few years for the switch are even more than optimistic. Now in the age of smartphones and when the people learned to change their model/tech after 2 or 3 years this little to no drops of the sales year on year will not happen. It will be something like 25M this year, and 15M next year, and then the successor launches which will put the switch at something like 6-8M and then 1-2 for its last year. The same happened with PS4, and if there were some other big consoles in the recent years with 100+M sales it probably would be the same. The Wii back in 2010 did the same, from 17M to 11M to 5M in just 2 years, or the DS 20M to 8M to 3M. Or the PS4 now, from 14M to 8M last year, and 2M this year. Switch last big year is this. Next year will be mediocre around 15M. In fact the decline has already started. As I stated in my previous comment Switch was on fire in the beginning of the year and from almost 500K per week now is close to 350K per week, by august it will drop to probably 300K per week. After this it will have boost because of the holiday season however with the full stock of the new consoles by next year, and by reaching more and more the saturation point switch will do around 200-250K per week starting next year. |
15M in 2022 is an unrealistic lowball with how strong its software lineup is already looking for next year.
Wii and DS aren't useful point for comparison as the former is quite unlike the Switch in its trajectory, and Switch is unlikely to be replaced next year (which is what curtailed DS) plus we already know it won't see a Wii-in-2011 style software evaporation just from the fact titles like Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BOTW2, Mario + Rabbits Sparks of Hope, etc are already announced.
