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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

15M in 2022 is an unrealistic lowball with how strong its software lineup is already looking for next year.

Wii and DS aren't useful point for comparison as the former is quite unlike the Switch in its trajectory, and Switch is unlikely to be replaced next year (which is what curtailed DS) plus we already know it won't see a Wii-in-2011 style software evaporation just from the fact titles like Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, BOTW2, Mario + Rabbits Sparks of Hope, etc are already announced.

As I already said, there is a point where games just don't sell more hardware anymore, by next year Switch will be at around 102M or more, therefore the effect from big games coming in 2022 or 2023 will be little to none.

Even later in a system's life major titles play a key role in maintaining hardware sales momentum by keeping the system relevant and talked about. You don't need to cause a big wave, you only need to keep the train rolling, as has been proven to work in systems with longer lifespans. There's no reason for Switch to suddenly drop to 15 million in 2022.