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noshten on 11 July 2021
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Every year we hear about how Switch is just about to fall of a cliff.. every year it ends up seeing gains.

Unlike past Nintendo systems that had to balance between two devices now we are seeing a system which is supported fully by all their first and second party studios.
This in turn has lead them to a dominant position. For example in Japan, Switch has gone from 61% market share to 74% market share in 2020, to likely over 90% market share this year. This is uncharted territory in the Nation which is the second biggest market for the Switch and home to tons of publishers which basically get 80% of their software sales in Japan and East Asia. When we look at the massive difference in support during the first three and a half years of the Switch life compared to the current state of the Japanese market its fairly clear that it's not just Nintendo, Pokemon Co & indies maintaining momentum. In the past 12 months we've had numerous success stories which aid the Switch not only maintain hardware momentum in Japan but also accelerate it in East Asia. The weight of Capcom, Konami, Koei, Marvelous and many others that has managed to have million selling franchises in the past year is certainly something people forget to account for in these threads. Especially as the games Japanese Publishers make are most popular in Nintendo's fastest growing region - East Asia.

It's an overlooked facet of hardware momentum that up until the middle of last year third parties were still not fully embracing the market leader in Japan, which is happening right now. Hardware sales in Japan have been in a delicate balance between PS & Nintendo since the PS2, with third parties contributing to Sony's success during it's peak in Japan, while Nintendo & Pokemon Co being the main factor behind Nintendo's hardware success. Since the fall of 2020 we've finally gotten a steady line-up of third party titles on the Switch, which contribute to the hardware momentum. This steady line-up will help Nintendo not just in their home country but also markets which have generally been aligned with the trends in Japan - software sales in South Korea last year were over 80% in favor of the Switch, and 60% in Taiwan. East Asia continues to be Nintendo's fastest growing region with China making a big contribution to this.

This is the main reason Switch will not follow previous norms, it's only late 2020/2021/2022 where we are seeing the results of third parties, this is the main reason Japan will end up with growth YoY, and East Asia will follow the same trend as it has in the past few years. OLED will help in my opinion but things will line-up nicely for 2022 which would be the software peak for the system. I personally think that it could also end up being the hardware peak as well. So in my humble opinion Switch will become the best selling system of all time by the end of 2022, surpassing the likes of the Nintendo DS & PlayStation 2 while still having at least one more year of sales before the successor launches.

With PS5 being pretty much irrelevant in Japan, the monopoly Nintendo will enjoy in the country will ensure that 90% of Japanese third party games target it as the primary device. Most Japanese games aren't compeating with AAA, so its a natural fit, creating further differentiation for the Switch in other markets.

So using historical trends isn't the wisest way to anticipate what will happen. There is a reason Splatoon 3, The Sequel to Breath of the Wild & Pokémon Legends: Arceus are launching next year; making the line-up the strongest we've seen since launch, no doubt other devices in the Switch family are planned for 2022 so talking about a cliff is premature. Nintendo financials will come out soon and for all we know VGCHARTz estimates are conservative.