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Mandalore76 on 12 July 2021
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yo33331 said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

If we look at a 13 week rolling average then weekly DS sales in 2007 were around 450k in the middle of the year yes, but in 2008 & 2009 they usually fluctuated between 370k & 430k. (Switch is currently about 400k)
I'm not saying the Switch is going to match DS for the year, I don't think it will have the holiday boost DS could manage mostly due to the price, but dropping down to 25M for the year is a big drop considering it's sold 10.7 million in the first 25 weeks. If it does drop down to 300k average in August then congrats, you are a prophet, I just don't see where that prediciton is coming from at the moment. (sales fluctuate, you need more than a couple of months downtrend to be so certain it will continue going down). And 25M is your "at best" figure.

And regarding the PS4/DS death, the comparison was matching the years correctly... PS4 2018 & DS 2009 were both 2 years before the successor release, the same as the Switch now if it's successor releases in 2023, the only difference being March release of 3DS vs November release of PS5 (which would be one of the major factors as to why DS fell so hard in 2011)
PS4s decline from this last 12 months is more to do with Sony than a normal end of life trend, the price is still high for such an old machine, but demand was still higher than supply for last Christmas, but maybe if Nintendo takes the same approach in trying to push more to Switch 2.

As I already said, my prediction is coming because not being just a little bit down, but down for the whole quarter. The first quarter was up from 2020 by close to 1M. And now the second is down 1M. With similar difference in the next 2 quarters there it is - 25M for the year. Yes this is my " at best figure " because I am seeing where switch is going, from 450-500k in the beginning of the year to 360-370k now and possibly around 300k by end of august.

Those games that will release till the end of the year may help just slightly. Switch will be at around 90M after 2-3 months, so almost all of the hardcore fans of nintendo and those games have already bought it. They may help for week or two to boost the switch sales with some 20-30k max 50k for the given week. For the PS4 and the DS again, I am giving just examples and not directly comparing it to them by years and number. just by drops. I am saying that just like ds ps4 wii or some other consoles dropped off a cliff in their last 2-3 years, so will the switch.

@curl-6 Stop with that bullshit that the switch is special one of a kind thing. it is console just like any other. it's a hybrid yes, but 90% of the buyers are handheld buyers. Just like with the DS. DS did better numbers from the switch and still it's audience were 100% handheld. Someone who wants home console would have already bought and play on PS4 or XB1 before 2021, and would've give his money on the PS5 or XBSX now not on the switch to play home on a PS3 like graphics.

Also I don't know who predicted for the switch to fall of a cliff in 2018 or 2019, this is stupid. It is normal to sell well for 3-4 years at least. But with 2020 and 2021 no one was expecting the sales that it did. However on it's sixth year - 2022 (after march) it's normal for the system to decline. And yes I am saying decline even for this year however 25M vs 28M last year isn't really a decline. Just like it wasnt decline for the DS from 29M to 27M in 2009, or it isn't decline for the PS4 from 20M to 18M in 2018. Those are just margin of error like .. You cant really call 10-15% a decline.

The Lite Model does not account for 90% of Switch's weekly sales.  You have no basis to say that only 10% of Switch owners are home console gamers.    Nintendo's own data disputes your claim.

The hybrid model regularly outsells it to the point that a scalper's market exists for the hybrid over 4 years into its lifespan even when the Lite is in steady supply.  Lite model sales have only seen an increased ratio over the hybrid when the hybrid has been supply constrained.