TOP 20 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417 NEW
2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394 NEW
5. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 185.900
6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482
11. Splatoon 2 - 103.649
12. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 97.772
13. Super Mario Maker 2 - 82.915
14. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 NEW
15. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 76.921
16. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 69.378
17. Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 65.653 NEW
18. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 61.571 NEW
19. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 58.899
20. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 39.804

TOTAL: 5.290.762
TOTAL HARDWARE: 1.700.352


TOP 20 2021 Switch Famitsu:

1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.302.132 NEW
2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 839.273
3. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 592.683 NEW
4. Ring Fit Adventure - 392.568
5. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 332.758
6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 294.411
7. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 262.501 NEW
8. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 205.765
9. Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 181.759
10. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 169.818
11. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 149.076
12. Splatoon 2 - 137.580
13. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 131.317 NEW
14. Super Mario Party - 120.973
15. Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 90.104
16. Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 86.320
17. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 71.893
18. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 63.625
19. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
20. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 56.273 NEW

TOTAL: 5.540.097
TOTAL HARDWARE: 1.744.974

• Hardware is slightly up YoY, and heading into Q2 there is a lot of momentum that should ensure that it sees 30% growth during the second quarter.
• A bit underwhelmed by Rise's physical launch, there were hints about just the initial shipment being 1.5 million, still the key things about the title are the legs. World fall off the chart in about one Quarter on the market, while Rise should continue to sell consistently through-out the year. 
• Due to Rise's lower than expected sales the Top 20 physical sales didn't reach 6 million but still it was a great Quarter for the Switch, comparing to the New Horizon launch
• Capcom, Konami, Marvelous, Square, Bandai & Microsoft were the third parties that were able to get into the Top 20
• Momotaro's result continues to be amazing for Konami and the game will surpass 1 million for the year in a few months.
• Marvelous botched the launch of Olive Town yet it's already their 3rd best selling game of all time physically and their best selling SKU when we take into account digital. Sakuna has exited the chart, but it will have no problems surpassing 100K for the year on the Switch physically.
• Square & Bandai had so-so quarters; yet another Square game was under-shipped while Bandai was fortunate that Little Nightmares II ended up a hit

The issue is that in other regions when the PS5 gets a decent boost for its stock, the games for it like Demon Souls and Miles show a noticeable increase in sales. That ain't happening in Japan even though Soulsborne usually sells great in Japan and Spider-Man PS4 was second to Ghost of Tsushima for the best selling first-party game on PS4. Like for fucks sake, the lowest game on the chart is in the two thousand range and you would think of the very least something for the PS5 would show up, when numbers get that low. Something about the PS5 software sales just doesn't make sense. The PS4 never had this problem when it came to selling software at any point in its life.

None of those games have ever carried a platform though. They've launched on 1m+ userbases, had a strong launch week then fallen of the charts. This is why I think its particularly hard for those launch titles to keep afloat months later. PS4 saw new releases chart but the only returning software entries in the top 40 was Battlefield 4 if I'm not mistaken. So I really think lack of new software is mostly the problem, PS4 had far more new releases in Japan within its first 2months alone.

As others said, purchasing going elsewhere in asia, a much higher digital ratio than past consoles, and a lottery like system may all be contributing to low software on the charts.

RE8 will be a very telling case study 

Yeah, RE8 has a chance to chart high, so that we can gauge software sales on PS5. Although, recently a new title charted, forgot which one.

I do agree that RE8 is gonna be interesting to see, if the first two or so years of the PS4 are any indication, then the last gen version will likely sell better. But the question is by how much and how good will RE8's legs be on both platforms?

While there is no PS5 version, Nier's opening should also be an interesting one, as that will be the first Playstation game to release in quite some time without a Switch version and if Automata is any indication the game should open good and have great legs.

With SD cards costing nothing (like 128Gb costing less than 20$) and really easy to install, I really doubt HD space is an issue on the Switch. I currently have a 400Gb one bought for 60$ and wouldn't mind buying a 1Tb one when the cost will go less than 100$.

Overstock a new Monster Hunter game in Japan? 

The important thing is how much Capcom and retailers ordered for Week 2 and beyond, if next week Monster Hunter Rise drops only by 60% it would already be at 1.82M. By Week 3 it will become the 2nd best selling 3rd Party game on the Switch and also surpass 2 million sales. By the end of April, it will likely be the best selling 3rd Party game overtaking Momotaro.

Prediction Monster Hunter Legs

Week 1: 1300K
Week 2: 520K (-60%)
Week 3: 270K (-50%)
Week 4: 189K (-30%)
Week 5: 170K (-10%)
Week 6 - Golden Week: 204K (+20%)

TOTAL: 2.65M

With this optimistic prediction + digital it would already be the 3rd Best selling Monster Hunter title of all time.
Obviously, I think based on the launch Capcom won't be able to ship so much but interested to see how much they do actually ship and how legs hold up.

Launch sales mean nothing on the Switch Momotaro launched with under 400K and has sold 1.6M since than in less than half an year. For Rise, Golden Week, Obon, Decemeber are things yet to come, the game should surpass 3.5M by the end of the year physical alone. 

It’s kinda crazy that 80-100K a week could be possible for Switch’s 5th year while this week’s PS5 sales of over 62K is considered “great,” not to mention not having any PS5 games in the top 30 either. I know stock is an issue, but will we actually see the weekly PS5 sales average 80-100K even once the stock issues are mostly resolved?

That makes me fearful that the PS5 will be very front loaded in Japan and might not have the best legs. But we shall see